The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Patriots and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0 | Spread | 1.0 | ||
| 25.25 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 28.9 | 5 | Points/Gm | 27.0 | 7 |
| 22.5 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 18.5 | 5 |
| 63.1 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 15 |
| 56.5 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.5 | 3 |
| 6.1 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 7 |
| 5.4 | 20 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 16 |
| 49.39% | 2 | Rush% | 46.77% | 7 |
| 50.61% | 31 | Pass% | 53.23% | 26 |
| 46.94% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 39.18% | 5 |
| 53.06% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 60.82% | 28 |
- The Patriots lead the league in EPA as a passing offense (126.7).
- Buffalo is 4th in EPA as a passing offense (111.6).
- The Bills are tied for the lead in passing plays of 20 or more yards (50).
- The Patriots are third (49).
- The Patriots have trailed once at the half this season, the fewest in the league.
- The Bills have the highest point differential in the second half (+95).
- The Patriots have converted 33.3% (26 of 78) of their third-and-long situations (needing 7 or more yards), 3rd in the league.
- The Bills are 4th, converting 31% (22 of 71) of those long third downs. The league average is 24.7%.
- Buffalo is averaging 2.06 points per drive on the road (17th) compared to 3.15 points per drive at home (2nd).
- The Patriots are allowing 1.65 points per drive at home (9th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen did major lifting on Sunday for gamers, delivering his third QB1 overall scoring week (37.8 points) of the season against the Bengals.
Allen completed 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards (9.0 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns through the air, adding 78 yards and a rushing touchdown (a 40-yarder) on the ground.
We are in the heart of Josh Allen takeover season as the Bills are pressed into big games.
For his career, Allen has averaged 24.4 points per game in December, his highest scoring month.
Last year, Allen posted 31.1 points per game in December.
To keep us honest, his one dud last year to close the season did come against New England in Week 16 (11.2 points).
Allen has not been as strong on the road this season.
He is 26th in rating on the road (82.2), completing 64.7% of his passes (19th) for 7.0 yards per attempt (16th), a 3.6% touchdown rate (29th), and a 3.6%interception rate (30th).
Still, it is hard not to want to get away from Allen as a front-end QB1 in a big conference game against an opponent currently in first place in the division.
The Bills are two games back of the Patriots for the division lead, so this is a pivotal game for both parties.
When these teams played in Week 5, Allen was the QB13 (19.4 points), completing 22 of 31 passes (71%) for 253 yards (8.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and an interception.
He rushed 9 times for 53 yards.
In that game, the Patriots played a lot of man coverage (37.7%), which was their third-highest rate this season.
Allen was 11 of 15 (73.3%) for 135 yards (9.0 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns against man coverage that night compared to 9 of 14 (64.3%) for 108 yards (7.7 Y/A) with an interception when the Patriots dropped into zone coverages.
Drake Maye: Maye comes out of the bye leading the NFL in completion rate (71.5%), second in yards per pass attempt (8.8), and fifth in touchdown rate (6.0%).
We have seen Maye slow down slightly for fantasy as he has one 20-point game over his past five games, but he has held a high floor and remained hyper-efficient.
Maye has thrown for at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt in 10 consecutive games.
That matches Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Dan Marino (1984) for the longest streaks ever.
Maye has had fewer than 15.0 fantasy points one time this season.
That was against the Bills in Week 5.
Maye was still efficient that night in a win, completing 22 of 30 passes (73.3%) for 273 yards (9.1 Y/A), but that was the only game this season that he did not throw a touchdown.
Maye is still a floor-based QB1 with upside in a game that can be back and forth.
This is the biggest game of Maye’s early career, so it is exciting to see how he comes out this week.
The Bills are still expected to be without Joey Bosa, which would be a big loss if he remains out.
Without Bosa last week, the Bills were second to last in the league in pressure rate (24.3%).
That was against Joe Burrow, but also a lackluster offensive line, which is what New England is working with (and they will be without Will Campbell).
Without Bosa off the field this season (132 attempts), the Bills have allowed a 68.2% completion rate (28th) for 8.0 Y/A (31st), and a 6.1% touchdown rate (27th).
Keeping Maye clean with be paramount.
When the Bills get pressure on the opposing quarterback, they are allowing a league-low 4.5 Y/A with a 39.3% completion rate (2nd).
Without pressure, they are allowing a 70% completion rate (11th) and 7.6 Y/A (25th).
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | Thursday Night Football |
| Browns @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Monday Night Football |
