The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Bears and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 17.2 | 29 | Points/Gm | 25.7 | 8 |
| 23.2 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 25.8 | 25 |
| 62.2 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 1 |
| 59.2 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.4 | 6 |
| 4.3 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 11 |
| 4.6 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 30 |
| 40.22% | 26 | Rush% | 47.05% | 5 |
| 59.78% | 7 | Pass% | 52.95% | 28 |
| 47.27% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 44.27% | 19 |
| 52.73% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 55.73% | 14 |
- The Bears are 8-1 outside of their division this season, tied for the best record in the league.
- Chicago is allowing 1.75 points per drive at home (11th) compared to 2.62 points per drive on the road (29th).
- The Browns are last in the NFL in EPA as a rushing offense over their past six games (-29.6).
- The Bears are 2nd in EPA as a rushing offense over that same period (18.8).
- The Bears have 54 runs of 10 or more yards, the most in the league.
- The Bears are allowing a league-high 6.5 yards per play on first downs.
- Cleveland averages 4.5 yards per play on first downs, 31st.
- The Browns have gained 20 or more yards on 9.6% of their passing plays over the past three weeks (11th) after a league-worst 4.9% rate prior.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Williams started off rough last week against Green Bay, completing 6 of 14 passes (42.9%) for 32 yards (2.3 Y/A) in the first half.
He picked things up after the break, completing 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 154 yards (7.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half in an attempted comeback that fell short and ended on an interception in the end zone.
We have been strong at identifying the best spots for Williams and when to use him as a QB2.
He has been matchup sensitive for ceiling, and we always acknowledge when a team can rush the passer against him.
That is what makes him more of a QB2 here.
The Browns are third in pressure rate (41.6%).
When pressured, Williams is completing a league-low 36% of his passes for 4.4 Y/A (32nd).
Without pressure, he still has a lower-end completion rate (66.7%, which is 29th), but his 7.7 yards per attempt average is 13th.
He also has a 5.2% touchdown rate when kept clean (14th) as opposed to a 2.5% touchdown rate when pressured (27th).
The Browns are allowing 11.7 passing points per game (7th) and have allowed only two QB1 scorers this season: Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye.
The Browns are also not very good at football, which allows teams to run against them.
Cleveland faces only 27.7 pass attempts per game (2nd fewest) and the fourth-highest run rate in the league, something Ben Johnson is happy to do.
One added out for Williams as a passer is if Denzel Ward does not play due to a calf injury.
The Browns have only faced 27 dropbacks without Ward on the field this season, but they have allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt on those snaps.
With Ward out a year ago, they allowed a league-high 10.0 Y/A.
Shedeur Sanders: After opening his career with QB18 (10.3 points) and QB24 (10.6 points) finishes, Sanders exploded on Sunday for 33.5 fantasy points, which was only outdone by super Josh Allen in Week 14.
That was the second-most points by a Cleveland quarterback since the team returned to the NFL, trailing a 35.5 point outing from Josh McCown in Week 5 of the 2015 season.
Sanders completed 23 of 42 passes (54.8%) for 364 yards (8.7 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and an interception, adding 29 yards and a touchdown rushing.
Sanders has been pressured a league-high 53.6% of his dropbacks over the past three weeks, but he has done a better job at avoiding sacks in his early sample compared to college.
Sanders has taken a sack on 12% of his pressures in his starts, which is eighth in the league. The league rate over the past three weeks is 18.6%.
On the dropbacks where Sanders has been kept clean, he has a 134.0 rating (2nd), completing 74.4% of his passes (12th) for 9/3 Y/A (5th).
Sunday’s game is anchoring those rates, but I mention that because this Cleveland offensive line has been put through the wringer.
Center Ethan Pocic was lost for the season on Sunday due to an Achilles injury.
Wyatt Teller remains out with a calf injury, and Jack Conklin is in concussion protocol.
Sunday will be the ninth different starting offensive line for the Browns.
Sanders had two back-end QB2 scoring weeks before Sunday, and that also came against the Titans, so we will proceed cautiously optimistic with him as a QB2 here.
Even if Sanders settles in as a boom-or-bust QB2 for fantasy, that is better than what we were getting from this quarterback spot.
Sanders has only started three games, but the top five largest passing plays this season for the Browns have all come over the past three weeks, with seven of the top eight and eight of the top 10.
Dillon Gabriel had zero of those.
We are still finding out what we have with Sanders, but this passing game could at least be the fun kind of bad instead of dormant.
The Bears are also a boom-or-bust pass defense.
They lead the NFL with a 4.5% interception rate, but they also allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt (28th) and a league-high 6.8% touchdown rate.
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | Thursday Night Football |
| Browns @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Monday Night Football |
