The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon game.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 22 | ||
| 20.5 | 20 | Points/Gm | 17.9 | 29 |
| 21.8 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 23.8 | 20 |
| 62 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 10 |
| 62.1 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.5 | 4 |
| 5.5 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 32 |
| 5 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 3 |
| 46.02% | 6 | Rush% | 41.14% | 17 |
| 53.98% | 27 | Pass% | 58.86% | 16 |
| 41.38% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 46.11% | 26 |
| 58.62% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 53.89% | 7 |
- The Panthers were tied with the Jaguars for the worst record (5-12) against the spread last season.
- Cleveland (35.7%) and Carolina (35.0%) ranked fourth and fifth defensively in the percentage of drives allowed that failed to gain a first down or touchdown.
- The Panthers averaged just 26.9 yards per possession in 2021, ahead of only the Texans.
- As a team, Carolina ranked 32nd in team completion percentage (58.1%), 31st in touchdown rate (2.3%), 31st in interception rate (3.5%), and 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.0 Y/A).
- The Browns allowed 4.7 yards per play on first and second downs (second in the NFL) in 2021 but allowed 6.1 yards per play on third down (28th).
- Carolina averaged just 3.7 yards per play in third down in 2021, the fewest in the league.
- 16.7% of the rushing attempts from the Browns gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield kicks off his Carolina career with an immediate “revenge game” narrative facing the Browns.
The putrid performance by Carolina quarterbacks in 2021 makes Mayfield look like Joe Montana comparatively, but we still have to stretch to find a path for Mayfield as a tangible fantasy starter in 1QB formats.
Through 59 career starts in Cleveland, Mayfield has been a fantasy QB1 scorer in just 16 of those games. With a worse offensive line and arguably worse pass catchers than what he had in Cleveland, we have to treat Mayfield as a fringe QB2 option, especially when we are tacking on a team total just above 20 total points.
Since entering the league in 2018, it comes down to pressure for Mayfield. When under pressure, Mayfield has completed 42.8% of his career passes (32nd in the NFL over that span) with a quarterback rating of 54.0 (29th). Cleveland was 15th in the league in pressure rate (30.4% of opponent dropbacks) in 2021 while ranking 11th in rate of dropbacks with a hit on the quarterback (14.7%).
The Browns were 11th in passing points allowed per game (14.1) in 2021, allowing a 63.8% completion rate (10th), 6.5 yards per pass attempt (fourth), and 10.1 yards per completion (fifth).
