The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game.
|Tampa Bay||Rank||@||New Orleans||Rank|
|28.13%||4||Opp. Rush %||53.52%||28|
|71.87%||29||Opp. Pass %||46.48%||5|
- The Buccaneers are 0-4 straight up and against the spread against New Orleans in the regular season with Tom Brady under center.
- New Orleans was able to pressure Brady on 32.2% of his dropbacks in those games while Brady has been pressured on 20.9% of his dropbacks versus everyone else.
- The Saints were dead last in pressure rate (8.3%) and rate of hits on the quarterback (2.7%) in Week 1.
- Through three quarters of Week 1, Jameis Winston was 10-of-18 passing (55.6%) for 56 yards (3.1 Y/A).
- In the fourth quarter, Winston was 13-of-16 (81.3%) for 213 yards (13.3 Y/A) with two touchdowns.
- Only Josh Allen had a higher completion percentage above expectation (+12.3%) than Winston (+11.8%) in Week 1.
Trust = spike production for that player
Tom Brady: Brady was not tasked to do much lifting in Week 1 and it hurt his final line, ending Week 1 as the QB27 (10.4 fantasy points).
Brady was 18-of-27 for 212 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Bucs ran 28 plays in opposition territory (11th in Week 1) but managed just one offensive touchdown.
Brady and Dennis Allen have had some battles during his short run in Tampa Bay. Brady has finished as the QB13 (20.5 points), QB31 (2.4 points), QB5 (25.2 points), and QB31 (4.8 points) in those four contests with Brady throwing for more than 6.6 yards per pass attempt in just one of those games.
A huge part of those outcomes is that the Saints have been able to generate a lot of pressure on the Bucs. Under pressure in those games, Brady has connected on just 18-of-42 passes (42.9%) for 158 yards (3.8 Y/A) with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. When kept clean, Brady hit on 81-of-120 passes (67.5%) for 879 yards (7.3 Y/A) with six touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Bucs lost another potential starter up front on Sunday, with Donovan Smith exiting the game with a hyperextended elbow. The Tampa line held up for the most part in Week 1, but when they did allow pressure, the cracks in this passing came through.
Brady was pressured on 31.0% of his dropbacks in Week 1 (23rd) but was only 4-of-7 for 27 yards (3.9 Y/A) on those dropbacks. The Saints generated the worst pressure in the league in Week 1 against an Atlanta front that was one of the league’s worst units in 2021. Their ability to get home in this game will be critical.
Outside of continued issues on the offensive line, Brady should be without Chris Godwin this week, leaving us still questioning his surrounding crew of pass catchers.
You can see above that the books have factored all of this in as well, as the Buccaneers have their lowest implied team total since Week 5 of the 2020 season (they have just one lower and it was Brady’s first game with the team).
All of these moving parts paired with Brady’s output in Week 1 have me handling him as a fringe QB1 this week, who I would be willing to stream for if I could play Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, or Matt Ryan as alternatives.