Buccaneers vs Saints Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game on October 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
Tampa BayRank@New OrleansRank
21.75Implied Total25.25
29.230Points All./Gm2316
68.530Opp. Plays/Gm62.511
29.6%2Opp. Rush %39.6%18
70.4%31Opp. Pass %60.4%15
  • Michael Thomas leads the league in target rate on slot routes (38.6%) and ranks second of all wide receivers in yards per route run from the slot (3.9), but ranks 42-of-45 qualifying wideouts in slot route rate (30.3%).
  • Thomas leads all wide receivers in percentage of team receptions (36.2%) and team receiving yardage (38.3%).
  • Just 6.8% of Teddy Bridgewater‘s completions have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Mike Evans leads the league in fantasy points on targets 15-yards or further downfield with 54.2. 
  • 88.5% (23-of26) of Chris Godwin‘s receptions have resulted in a first down, the highest rate for any player with more 10 receptions on the season.
  • 31.7% of the rushing attempts against Tampa Bay have failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Chris Godwin: He’s been every-other-week to start the season (WR31, WR5, WR64, WR1), but this is another good matchup for him to string together back-to-back spike weeks against a Saints secondary that is 30th in points allowed to opposing slot receivers.
  • Mike Evans: He’s had two top-10 weeks in a row and has delivered on the positive end of his high-variance targets. Marshon Lattimore rose to the occasion last Sunday night against Amari Cooper, but still has allowed the most yardage allowed in coverage this season (380 yards).  Evans had lines of 7-147-1 and 4-86-0 in the two meetings between these teams last season.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Alvin Kamara: He’s been the RB42, RB1, and RB23 in the three games Bridgewater has primarily played. Kamara hasn’t been explosive in the running game over that span (46 carries for 183 yards and a game-high of 69 yards rushing) and the Buccaneers have melted opposing running games so far (allowing a league-low 2.8 yards per carry to backs). But they did allow Todd Gurley to get into the end zone twice last week and allowed him to catch seven passes. 
  • Jameis Winston: The past two weeks are what we expected this passing game to look like under Bruce Arians with Winston throwing for 380 and 385 yards with seven touchdowns. If Drew Brees were playing here, there would be major shootout potential, but the Saints have slowed down their offense under Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints’ defense may be taking the “coming on slowly” approach they have over the past few seasons after shutting down a hot Dak Prescott on Thursday, but they still allowed the QB8 or higher in each of their three opening games. 
  • Michael Thomas: His ceiling potential has been lowered in the change to Bridgewater, but Thomas is still getting peppered with opportunities, receiving 37.1%, 25.9%, and 30% of the team targets over the past three weeks. Thomas has only one 100-yard game, but has nine or more receptions in three of his four games this season with a touchdown in the one game he didn’t get there.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Other Saints: Over the past three weeks, Thomas has 238 receiving yards and Kamara has 127. The next closest Saints player (Jared Cook) has just 53 yards combined.  If you have to dig deep here, Cook is the best objective bet based on matchup. Only the Cardinals have been worse against opposing tight ends than the Buccaneers (19.6 points per game).

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Ronald Jones: Jones closed the gap on Peyton Barber in Week 3 (23 snaps to 28) and then played 36 snaps last week to just 19 for Barber. The snaps weren’t unwarranted, either. Jones has 203 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks compared to 74 for Barber. Jones also lost two other huge gains to penalties. With three top-30 scoring weeks through four weeks, Jones is worth a FLEX look. The downside is the matchup isn’t strong as a road underdog. The Saints are coming off bottling up Ezekiel Elliott and rank fourth in points allowed per game (18.4) to opposing backfields.  
  • O.J. Howard: He’s fourth among tight ends in snaps played, but has run a pass route on just 41.6% of his snaps and has been targeted on just 12.5% of his pass routes. The Saints have allowed 7-99-0 and 7-71-1 lines to opposing tight ends the past two weeks, but Howard takes a major step of faith given his low usage to date.
  • Teddy Bridgewater: The Saints aren’t asking Teddy to be more than a bus driver. He has just a 5.4-yard average depth of target, which is the lowest in the league over the past three weeks. He’s been the QB30, QB18, and QB26. This is the best outlook he will have on paper, however, as the Buccaneers have developed into a pass-funnel defense and have allowed 333, 336, and 517 passing yards over the past three weeks.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF