Jaguars vs Panthers: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon game on October 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
18.75Implied Total22.25
2112Points All./Gm2011
6315Opp. Plays/Gm66.527
38.9%15Opp. Rush %40.2%19
61.1%18Opp. Pass %59.8%14
  • Just 31.1% of the completions against the Panthers have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 45.1%.
  • The Panthers are allowing 4.6 yards per pass play, the fewest in the league.
  • Carolina ranks third in yards per target (5.6) and fantasy points per target (1.30) to opposing wide receivers.
  • Opposing teams are targeting their wide receivers 72.7% of the time versus Carolina, the highest rate in the league.
  • 23.2% of the completions allowed by the Jaguars have gone 20 or more yards, the second-highest rate behind Oakland (23.3%).
  • Gardner Minshew has a 28.6% conversion rate on third down pass attempts, the lowest for 27 quarterbacks with 20 or more attempts on the season on third downs.
  • Leonard Fournette is the only running back in the top-20 in seasonal scoring that has yet to score a touchdown. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey’s 111 touches are the most through four games for a player since Arian Foster in 2012. He now has 37, 27, and 33 touches in his three full games played without Cam Newton. He’s one of just two backs averaging double-digit points in both rushing (16.3) and receiving (11.7) points per game.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Leonard Fournette: His fantasy points have gone up in every game through four weeks, Last week was why you always play volume and opportunity at the position firsthand despite the early-season results not matching up. The rub with Fournette isn’t volume at all (22.0 touches per game) it’s still scoring opportunities. The Jaguars as a team have run just two total plays this season from inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line. As a road dog with a team total under 20 points, those scoring opportunities still are a question mark. 
  • Greg Olsen: He turned in an egg last week with two catches for five yards on four targets. Still, he was on the field for a season-high 97% of the team snaps. The Jaguars have allowed double-digit points to an opposing tight end in each of the past three weeks. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Gardner Minshew: As great of a story as Minshew has been in real football, in fantasy he’s yet to have a QB1 scoring week. He’s still been a steady QB2 option, but he’s thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in each of his three starts. On the road against a Carolina defense that hasn’t allowed a weekly finish higher than QB17 to start the season. 
  • Kyle Allen: Making the first home start of his career, Allen dinked his way through the game last week to a QB29 finish. Allen’s average depth a target (8.3 yards) dropped over a full yard from his 2019 debut and his yards per pass attempt (6.8) plummeted. The Jaguars have allowed three 300-yard passers in four games, but Allen is still only a lower-end QB2 option on the surface entering the week.
  • James O’Shaughnessy: He has a touchdown in each of the past two games, but also just three receptions for 36 yards. 
  • D.J. Chark: He led the team with eight targets (24.2%) in Week 4 and had a touchdown taken off the board by penalty. The downside is that he runs into another objectively rough outlook against a Carolina team that keeps wiping out wide receivers despite the fact that teams keep throwing to them heavily. The rogue’s gallery has been formidable, too. Between the Rams, Bucs, Cardinals, and Texans wideouts, only Chris Godwin was higher than WR24 and just four wideouts total have been a top-30 option. Chark’s continued target share and vertical presence keep him in play as a lower-end WR3/FLEX, but this is another tougher outlook on paper and the matchup may just favor Westbrook.
  • D.J. Moore: His opportunities have taken the biggest hit with the transition to Allen. Over the past two weeks, Moore has had just an 11.6% target share and just 15% of the team air yards. This is after receiving 27% of the targets and 27% of the team air yards with Newton under center.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Curtis Samuel: If digging for a Panthers pass catcher outside of CMC or Olsen, Samuel’s opportunity has grown under Allen. He has 26.9% and 20.6% of the team targets the past two weeks (seven targets in each game) and has 42% of the team air yards. As mentioned in the facts section, the Jaguars have given up a high rate of splash plays in the passing game. 
  • Dede Westbrook: The Panthers have wiped out opposing wide receivers in totality, but they have allowed lines of 10-70-0, 2-38-0, 13-87-0, and 5-47-0 to opposing slot receivers to start the season. There’s no ceiling output there, but it’s another week where Westbrook (WR30 in Week 4) can be a WR3 floor option.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF