Rams vs Seahawks: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Thursday night game on October 3, 2019 at 8:20pm ET.
LA RamsRank@SeattleRank
1.5Spread-1.5
23.75Implied Total25.25
29.26Points/Gm25.89
2626Points All./Gm22.214
69.52Plays/Gm6417
64.220Opp. Plays/Gm57.53
34.9%26Rush%43.36%9
65.1%7Pass%56.64%24
37.7%14Opp. Rush %33.04%5
62.3%19Opp. Pass %66.96%28
  • The Rams are a league-best 16-3 on the road under Sean McVay since he was hired in 2017.
  • The Seahawks are 14-2 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread in home primetime games since drafting Russell Wilson.
  • Wilson has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in 12 of those 16 games, averaging 20.6 fantasy points per game. 
  • The Rams rank third in fantasy points generated per game for skill players (87.1) while the Seahawks rank fifth (83.5).
  • Jared Goff has been under pressure on 43.2% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. He was under pressure on 32% of his dropbacks in 2018 (26th highest).
  • Goff has a 64.8 rating on first down pass attempts (34th in the league) as opposed to a 94.3 rating otherwise (18th). He had a 106.4 rating on first down in 2018 (sixth in the league).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Russell Wilson: So far we’ve got a good bead on the climate we want Wilson in for his fantasy ceiling. Even in two stellar matchups against the Bengals and Cardinals, we’ve seen the Seahawks revert back to playing a controlled script and limiting Wilson’s fantasy ceiling. In the other two games when Seattle had to pace the scoreboard, Wilson went bonkers. We’re getting the Seahawks as a favorite against the Rams for the first time since McVay joined the team, but these teams combined for 64 and 67 points a year ago. That’s the environmental cocktail we want for Wilson. He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his past four games against the Rams, but did throw for three touchdowns in each meeting a year ago. 
  • Cooper Kupp: He’s been the most bankable asset in this passing game, tallying nine or more targets in each of the first four games and going over 100-yards receiving in each of the past three games. Seattle held the slot combo of Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk to eight catches for 73 yards in the slot last week, but Kupp is the hottest receiver going. 
  • Tyler Lockett: He’s gone as Wilson has this season, seeing 26 total targets in the two scoreboard-chasing games and just six total in the two controlled games. This game definitely can get to the former. The Rams are closer to the defense they were Weeks 1-3 than last week, but when they’ve given up production, it’s come from the slot to Chris Godwin last week and Michael Thomas in Week 2. Lockett scored in both meetings between these teams a year ago. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Brandin Cooks: As off as it may seem Cooks is, his 4.8 receptions for 74.0 receiving yards per game are right on par for his 2018 averages. His catch rate (61.3%) has dipped, however, compared to the 68.4% mark he had a year ago. Cooks had 10 catches for 100 yards in his one full game versus Seattle a year ago.
  • Robert Woods: He snapped an early-season funk in a big way last week, catching 13-of-15 targets for 164 yards. Woods had at least five receptions or either 89 yards receiving in each of his four games against Seattle while he’s been with the Rams. The Seahawks have been solid to start the season versus opposing wideouts (eighth in points per game), but have gotten off a bit light the past three weeks, facing a rookie quarterback in Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mason Rudolph. Even if we’re dampening the expectations for Goff, the Rams’ wideouts are all in play with Kupp as the best bet to maintain production.
  • Chris Carson: Seattle went back to full-faith in Carson last week (48 snaps) and he rewarded them with his best game of the season, posting 145 yards from scrimmage and forcing a mind-boggling 11 missed tackles. Rashaad Penny is finally expected back, but Carson did enough last week to regain some leverage against a Rams defense that is 24th in points allowed per game (26.0) to opposing backfields over the opening month of the season. 
  • Todd Gurley: His 16 rushing yards last week were his fewest in a regular-season game since his rookie debut in 2015. But Gurley’s snap share has risen each of the past two weeks (74.2% and 75.5%) while handling 26-of-34 backfield touches in those games. The big concern there is that he’s coming off a season-high 67 snaps and the Rams are on a short week. This could be a spot where they go back to Malcolm Brown more heavily in the rotation. Last week Gurley was finally used a receiver as well, catching seven passes for 54 yards after just four catches for eight yards over the first two weeks. Seattle has struggled to defend backs out of the backfield the past two weeks, allowing David Johnson (8-99-0) and Alvin Kamara (9-92-1) to do damage in the passing game. Gurley still visibly lacks explosion, but his grip on the receiving work and goal line opportunities keep him in the RB2 pool here.
  • Will Dissly: No longer a streamer at this point, Dissly had his target per route rate go from 22.7% to 26.1% to 34.8% over the past three weeks. 39.9% of Dissly’s fantasy points have come directly from touchdowns, something that is not sustainable. This matchup also isn’t nearly as strong as last week’s obvious tight end turnstile in Arizona — the Rams are allowing just 5.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (third) — but Dissly has four end zone targets over the past three weeks and the Rams have allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in each of the past two games. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Jared Goff: By now you’re probably sick of hearing about the home/road splits for Goff, but here we are again with him on the road. Goff has been a QB1 just once on the road since the start of last season, including QB28 and QB23 scoring weeks this season on the road. He also has been the QB20 and QB25 in his two road games in Seattle under McVay. 
  • Gerald Everett: We shouldn’t expect Goff to drop back another 70 times this week. In that 70-dropback game last week, Everett ran a season-high 38 pass routes and had a season-high eight targets after just seven looks through three weeks.
  • D.K. Metcalf: Just 46.6% of Metcalf’s targets have been catchable, lowest for all WR with 20 or more targets on the season. While Lockett can work the slot and avoid Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, Metcalf runs nearly 90% of his routes on the perimeter.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF

 

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