Cardinals vs Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game on October 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
21.75Implied Total25.25
28.829Points All./Gm27.528
67.528Opp. Plays/Gm61.59
45.6%27Opp. Rush %52.0%31
54.4%6Opp. Pass %48.0%2
  • Since the start of the 2016 season, the Cardinals are 1-9 straight up and against the spread in the Eastern Time Zone.
  • Arizona has held the lead for just two offensive snaps this season, ahead of only the Dolphins (one).
  • Kyler Murray is the only quarterback in the league with a higher sack rate under pressure (32.3%) than his actual pressure rate (31.6%).
  • Murray has accounted for 30.7% of the Arizona rushing yards, the highest team dependency on a quarterback in the league.
  • Murray’s average depth of targets has gone from 10.7 yards (fifth) to 8.1 yards (18th), to 5.0 (31st) to 5.0 (31st) over the opening four weeks.
  • Both the Cardinals and Bengals rank 30th in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.63), ahead of only the Dolphins (0.81).
  • The Bengals rank 31st in red zone touchdown rate (27.3%) while the Cardinals rank (35.7%). Both teams are ahead of only the Dolphins (16.7%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • David Johnson: He hasn’t had more than 11 rushing attempts in each of the past three games, but this is a week to get him going on the ground while also building on his strong receiving stats (21-182-2). The Bengals are dead last in points allowed per game (38.4) to opposing backfields. That has been all-encompassing as well, ranking 29th in rushing points allowed (19.6) and 32nd in receiving points allowed (19.6) per game to the position.  

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Joe Mixon: It’s going to remain an uphill battle for Mixon to generate significant rushing output behind this offensive line but things have gotten a little better the past two weeks for him (4.1 yards per carry) from the opening two weeks when he had 17 carries for 27 yards. The main issue for Mixon has been that he has just 11 receptions for 52 yards through four games. This is as good of an outlook as Mixon can hope for. At home as a favorite against an Arizona defense that ranks 23rd in yards from scrimmage (144.3 yards) allowed per game to backfields. 
  • Kyler Murray: He and this offense have yet to give a full game of being effective, but Murray still has at least 16.3 fantasy points in every game this season. He’s started to use his legs more over the past two weeks (15.6 rushing points). The matchup is strong, but the limitations and inconsistency of the Arizona offense prevent us from counting on a ceiling.  
  • Tyler Boyd: We found out last week that Boyd will have a tough time surviving when Dalton lays an egg. While we’re expecting Dalton to bounce back here in this matchup, the Cardinals have actually been solid versus opposing wideouts. Just 38.7% of the fantasy points allowed by Arizona have gone to wide receivers, the third-lowest rate in the league ( ahead of the team they are facing and the Packers). A big part of that is because teams are crushing them with running backs and tight ends. The Bengals may not be able to do that and Boyd is still their most bankable bet to receiver volume. 
  • Larry Fitzgerald: Even though he’s slowed down the past two weeks (10 catches for 83 yards), he’s still yet to have a scoring week lower than WR3 status. Now, Christian Kirk is dealing with an ankle injury, which leaves Fitz as the only trustworthy pass-catcher left in the cupboard. With Kirk -and Damiere Byrd -expected to be out, the Cardinals brought in Pharoh Cooper to the slot man in four-WR sets while, KeeSean Johnson, Trent Sherfield, and Andy Isabella will play outside. Outside of Fitz, the rest are all dart throws. To compound matters, just 38.6% of the fantasy points scored against the Bengals have been from wide receivers, the second-lowest rate in the league. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Andy Dalton: Dalton has slumped the past two weeks (5.8 yards per pass attempt) but this game should be one of the faster-paced games of the weekend as Arizona is first in the league in seconds per play (23.3) while the Bengals are sixth (26.2 seconds). The problem is that both teams have been in a hurry to get nowhere. That said, Dalton is a home favorite in a potential fast-paced game against a defense that ranks 31st in passing points allowed (21.6) per game. 
  • Tyler Eifert: He’s only played 42% of the snaps, but Eifert runs a pass route on 74.7% of his snaps. It’s a tight end against the Cardinals, so you know he has to be on the radar. Tight ends have scored 34.6% of the fantasy points against Arizona, the highest rate in the league. The next closest team (Tampa Bay) is at 25.2%.
  • Auden Tate: Tate has 10 and six targets over the past two weeks which he’s turned into lines of 6-88 and 4-50. The 6’6″ Tate has also run 40% of his routes from the slot, almost as a secondary TE option and already has an end zone target on the season.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF