Jets vs Eagles: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon game on October 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
NY JetsRank@PhiladelphiaRank
14Spread-14
15.25Implied Total29.25
1131Points/Gm27.57
23.318Points All./Gm26.227
57.328Plays/Gm684
6523Opp. Plays/Gm63.218
37.8%24Rush%42.28%12
62.2%9Pass%57.72%21
37.4%13Opp. Rush %30.8%3
62.6%20Opp. Pass %69.17%30
  • The Eagles have scored a touchdown on 35% (14-of-40) of their possessions, fourth in the league. 
  • The Jets have scored a touchdown on just 1-of-39 (2.6%) possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Eagles have converted a league-high 56.1% of their third downs for first downs or touchdowns.
  • The Jets have converted a league-low 25.6% of their third downs.
  • The Jets are averaging a league-low 3.9 yards per play offensively.
  • Le’Veon Bell averages 0.21 yards before contact per carry, the lowest rate for any running back with more than 25 carries on the season.
  • Just 7.4% of Bell’s rushing yardage has been gained before contact, the lowest rate of the same group. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Carson Wentz: He’s run the gauntlet the past three weeks of losing weapons and averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, but has still come out with a top-12 scoring week in all four weeks this season. After a long layoff, he’s a huge home favorite against a defense that is allowing 12.3 yards per completion (23rd). 
  • Alshon Jeffery: He returned last week and only managed 3-38, but he had nine targets and found the end zone. The Jets are allowing 221.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts (31st).
  • Zach Ertz: Ertz is second among tight ends in team target share (25.3%) and is tied for fourth at the position in receptions (24), but he’s failed to find the end zone so far on the season, which has made him a high-floor play to this point. The Jets haven’t faced any tight end presence to start the season, but from what we know of Gregg Williams’s defenses of recent years, the middle of the field is target area for functional tight ends in the passing game.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Le’Veon Bell: You’re not outright benching Bell based on his lofty usage, but this is an objectively terrible matchup for Bell that is similar to what he had in Week 3 when he had 22 touches for 63 yards and was the RB31. The Jets offensive line and quarterback situation are doing Bell no favors while the Eagles have allowed just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backfields (second). Philadelphia is more vulnerable to receiving backs, ranking 22nd in receiving points allowed per game (12.1). Bell will need his receiving work to carry his floor while hoping to find the end zone. 
  • Luke Falk: He’s been the QB29 and QB33 in his two games and offers no mobility. The Eagles are an all-encompassing passing-game target most weeks, but trusting Falk as a major road underdog that has an implied team total at fewer than 16 points is still relying solely on the matchup to do all of the lifting. 
  • Jamison Crowder: Based on his archetype, he’s a volume-based fantasy option to generate a usable floor. Even with Darnold active, he carries a low ceiling, so Falk lowers that significantly. Crowder has six catches for 65 yards in his two games with Falk. Even with a strong matchup on paper, there are other slot options that have more reliable quarterback situations to choose from if hunting for a floor play. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Eagles RBs: Backfields attached to large home favorites are always enticing, we just have to deal with a bit of a split here. As it stands now, Jordan Howard is the one building momentum as the favorite for fantasy points. Howard’s snap rate over the first four weeks has been 22.7%, 22.2%, 32.9%, and 53.2% while he has all four team rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line over the past two games. Last week, he even ran more pass route (nine) than Miles Sanders (five). Sanders has still had 15 and 11 touches the past two weeks, but has lived off a 30-yard run last week and a 40-yard reception the week prior to floating pedestrian yardage totals. Howard is a touchdown-chasing FLEX while Sanders is more of a deeper dart with lower odds at reaching the end zone. 
  • Nelson Agholor: He had no catches on one target in Week 4 against a Green Bay defense that has nuked slot wideouts to start, but Agholor still played 90.3% of the snaps. The Jets have allowed lines of 7-64-0, 3-121-1, and 12-142-1 to opposing slot wideouts to start the season.
  • Robby Anderson: We’re approaching things early on that the Jets will be without Sam Darnold for at least one more week. Should he practice in full and look ready to go, both Jets wideouts would get a major boost against an Eagles secondary allowing a league-high 222.0 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. But if solely playing for upside and the matchup, Anderson would be the swing to make since he can something happen on very few targets. Jets wideouts had just seven catches for 65 yards versus New England in Week 3, but we did see Anderson have 4-81 from Falk in Week 2 against the Browns. He still carries a low floor, but Anderson gets the types of targets that at least make the appeal of the matchup worth chasing.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF

 

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