Lions vs. Bucs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Lions and Bucs on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield: Just when you think Mayfield could not possibly have another obstacle to overcome, Emeka Egbuka was forced from the game on Sunday with a hamstring injury.

With his leading wide receiver being Kameron Johnson (who had never caught a pass in the NFL), Mayfield still turned in another QB1 scoring week, closing last week as the QB11 (19.6 points).

Mayfield threw for 11.1 yards per pass attempt on Sunday while completing 73.9% of his passes, with his top pass catchers being Johnson, Sterling Shepard, Cade Otton, and Tez Johnson.

He threw 2 more touchdown passes, giving him multiple passing scores in five of six games this season.

Mayfield only has one top-six scoring week, but he has held as high a floor as anyone, with his lowest week as QB13.

Mayfield did lose Egbuka last week, but he could get Mike Evans back.

He will also draw a Detroit secondary that is as battered as his receiving corps.

With Detroit down multiple cornerbacks these past two weeks, they have allowed 3 passing touchdowns in each game.

Even accounting for a healthy secondary, the Lions have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in all but one game (Cleveland) and have allowed at least 3 passing scores in three of their past four games.

That overlaps with Mayfield’s touchdown production, putting him right back in play as a QB1 in a game environment that could produce plenty of fantasy points.

Jared Goff: Goff has had just one scoring week in the top half of weekly quarterbacks over the past four weeks.

That was even only a QB11 scoring week.

Over the full six-game sample, Goff has finished QB17 or lower in four games.

The only teams he has thrown for 250-plus yards against are the Bears and Bengals.

We have a game environment that could push scoring, and an opponent that should force the issue by throwing the ball.

However, getting Detroit out of its run-heavy shell is not always so easy.

Especially since they are home favorites here.

For that reason, I would prefer to use Goff as a floor-based QB2 with upside rather than lean on him, but there is an avenue for upside here if you are forcing him out in 1QB formats.

Tampa Bay ranks 11th in success rate defending rushing plays (61.8%) but 27th against passing plays (51.2%).

Where Goff can have success is in the play-action game.

Goff has used play action on 30.5% of his dropbacks, fourth in the league.

Tampa Bay has a wide split against play action.

The Bucs have allowed a 75% completion rate (28th), 11.2 yards per pass attempt (31st), and an 8.3% touchdown rate (24th) on play-action passes.

Against non-play action passes, Tampa Bay has allowed a 66.9% completion rate (17th), 6.9 Y/A (18th), and a 4.3% touchdown rate.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs found little success in Week 5 against the Chiefs, rushing 17 times for 65 yards (3.8 YPC).

He did handle a season-high 75% of the backfield touches, but Dan Campbell was vocal to open the week that he “would like to balance the backfield out.”

Gibbs has not been as efficient a runner to open this season.

Gibbs has an 8% rate of explosive runs, which ranks 29th among 36 backs to have 50 or more runs this season.

That is while leading the same group of 36 backs in yards before contact per rush (1.97).

We have seen him excel in a leading role before, so this is likely due to more factors than Gibbs himself, but he has not been as dynamic as he was in years past.

Another thing Detroit is not doing is using Gibbs as a pass catcher.

He has 2 or fewer receptions in each of his past three games.

He has a first-read target share of 5.6% over the past three weeks, which is RB29 per Fantasy Points data.

There is more season to play out, but right now, Gibbs is averaging a career-low 18.7 receiving yards per game.

Pairing his dip in rushing efficiency and lack of receiving output, Gibbs has only two RB1 scoring weeks on the season.

His floor has still been sturdy outside of Week 6 (five top-15 scoring weeks), but he has hardly been the weekly hammer he was drafted as.

You are still getting him into lineups easily.

The hope is that this matchup forces the action to use Gibbs in space.

The Buccaneers are allowing 3.6 yards per carry to running backs (4th) and have a 67.3% success rate against those runs (3rd).

Where they have been vulnerable is to backs in the passing game.

Tampa Bay is allowing 11.9 receiving points per game to running backs, 29th in the league.

Rachaad White: White has been a top-10 back in each of the past two weeks since taking over as the lead back.

The rushing efficiency for White (2.8 YPC and 3.8 YPC) has been lackluster, but his workload has been stellar.

We did see Sean Tucker get into the end zone last week, but White still handled 20 touches for 86 yards and a score himself.

White has handled 75% and 76.9% of the backfield touches with Bucky Irving sidelined, who is going to miss another week here.

That puts White back on the board as a fringe RB1.

He has leaned a bit on his touchdown output these past two weeks, but he has pass-catching upside to go along with his control of the backfield opportunities.

This is a tough assignment, so we need that workload to push White.

Detroit has been good up front, allowing 4.0 YPC to running backs (12th) and 69.8 yards per game on the ground to backs (7th).

They are allowing 97.2 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs, fourth in the league.

David Montgomery: Montgomery had a season-low 6 touches on Sunday night (for 61 yards), which prompted Campbell to suggest getting him more involved moving forward.

The timing could not be worse if the plan is to aggressively try to run the ball against this stout Tampa Bay front.

I already laid out the success that Tampa Bay has had against the run.

46.2% of Montgomery’s runs have been outside zone (7th highest rate).

The Bucs are allowing 3.9 YPC to running backs on those runs with a 73.3% success rate.

Montgomery can also get extra work as a pass catcher to align with the matchup.

He only has 10 targets so far this season.

As questionable as everything sounds here based on the speculated usage and the matchup, we still are catching Monty attached to a home favorite with a team total of 29 points.

We are projecting scoring opportunities, so any increased workload can add viability to Montgomery as an RB2.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown (TRUST): St. Brown is coming off catching 9 of 10 targets, but only for 45 yards.

He averaged a season-low 4.1 air yards per target on Sunday night, with 100% of his targets shorter than 10 yards downfield.

That was an anomaly for his usage, but the targets were still on par with his season rate.

St. Brown has had at least 30% of the team’s targets in four of the past five games, with a low rate of 28% over that span.

This matchup aligns for St. Brown being fed again.

The Buccaneers blitz 32.3% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

Todd Bowles has blitzed Goff 35.3% of the time in this matchup.

When Goff has been blitzed this season, St. Brown has a team-high 35.1% target share with 3.87 yards per route.

We also brought up the play-action splits for Goff and the Tampa Bay defense.

St. Brown also leads the team with 29.4% of the targets on play action passes with 3.65 yards per route.

Tampa Bay is 25th in points allowed per game (16.2) to opposing WR1 targets.

They have allowed spike weeks to Kendrick Bourne (5-142-0). Jaxon Smith–Njigba (8-132-1), Garrett Wilson (10-84-1), and solid weeks to Nico Collins (3-52-1) and Drake London (8-55-0).

Mike Evans: We are anticipating that Evans will be back on Monday night after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury.

If Evans does return, he comes back to an empty cupboard where he can get fed targets.

We were in this exact spot a year ago.

Evans missed a month last season with a hamstring injury.

When he came back, Tampa Bay was down multiple wideouts.

The Bucs did take it slow with him in that spot.

He only ran a route on 65.6% of the dropbacks in that first game back.

But when he was on the field, he was targeted on 28.6% of his routes with 3.24 yards per route.

That also came in a 30-7 win.

The Bucs may have to push for more passing here.

Even if Evans is limited in terms of snaps and routes, we can bet there are good odds that he will generate targets on those plays.

That is enough to make him an upside WR2.

Those plays will come against a depleted Detroit secondary that has allowed 9.6 yards per target (21st) and a league-high 6 receiving touchdowns to receivers the past two weeks.

Evans has plenty of touchdown equity.

When he has been on the field since the start of last season, Evans has 46.5% of the Tampa Bay end zone targets.

Jameson Williams: Williams had his most encouraging game of the season on Sunday night.

He caught 6 of 7 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, but it was more about how he was used versus the box score.

Last week, we mentioned that Williams was not receiving enough opportunities in the offense, which had a high success rate.

He was forced to live on a diet of downfield targets with limited success.

On Sunday night, Williams had a season-low 4.9 air yards per target after a 20.8 mark in Weeks 1 through 5.

71.4% of his targets were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, a 33.3% improvement from the prior rate.

None of his 7 targets were 20 or more yards downfield after a 42.9% rate entering Sunday.

While that is encouraging, we also mentioned that St. Brown had a season-low depth of target, so that could have been opponent-driven rather than Williams getting more balanced opportunities on their own.

We hope that is not the case, but the Lions are still finding their way under new play caller John Morton.

As noted several times so far, the player usage overall raises some questions despite the team's success to this point.

We highlighted the play-action opportunities that this passing game should emphasize this week.

There is plenty of volatility here as Sunday was only the second time that Williams was a top-50 scorer this season, but the upside from the game environment and last week’s usage are worth chasing as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Tampa Bay WRs: Kameron Johnson was the leading receiver for the Bucs on Sunday, catching 4 passes for 64 yards, including a 34-yard touchdown.

Johnson only ran 4 routes (25%) before Egbuka’s injury, while Sterling Shepard (81.3%) and Tez Johnson (75%) were the base receivers alongside Egbuka when everyone was available.

Kameron Johnson may have earned more reps, but if Mike Evans is back, it is likely at the expense of Johnson.

As noted, Evans is unlikely to have a full workload in his first game back, but that makes Johnson a fragile receiver to chase.

Shepard is the most reliable of the wideouts for targets and playing time as a single-game DFS option and as a matchup-based WR4/FLEX in managed leagues.

Johnson did have a 45-yard touchdown on a slick grab, but that was also his only catch in the game.

Tez is more of a single-game DFS dart than an aggressive target outside of the deepest seasonal leagues.

There is upside per target for all of these receivers based on the state of the Detroit secondary.

The Lions have allowed 9.6 yards per target (21st) and a league-high 6 receiving touchdowns to receivers the past two weeks.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta: LaPorta secured 5 of 6 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown on Sunday night.

It was his second touchdown in as many weeks.

LaPorta has not cleared 6 targets in a game since Week 1, but he still belongs in play as a TE1.

There are avenues for him to get over in this matchup even without a touchdown.

LaPorta is second on the team in target share (17.6%) on those play-action passes we have talked about, averaging 3.77 yards per route on those snaps.

The Bucs have also had issues slowing down tight ends.

Tampa Bay has allowed an 82.5% catch rate (27th) and 7.0 yards per target to tight ends (17th).

If we are left chasing a touchdown here for the third straight week, the Bucs have also allowed a 10% touchdown rate to tight ends (31st).

Cade Otton: Otton caught 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards on Sunday.

He led the team with 26.1% of the targets.

All of his targets came after Fred Warner left the game, which accounted for a 31.6% target share from that point on.

Otton only had 2 targets after Egbuka left the game, but that was still 25%.

Going back to last season, we have seen him become more involved as Tampa Bay loses key wide receivers.

Otton never leaves the field (his 88.7% route rate is third among all tight ends).

Even with Evans expected back, Otton has a path to be elevated as a streamer and fringe TE1, with added upside if we can get him into the end zone.

The Lions have been below the fold against tight ends, allowing 7.4 yards per target (20th) and a 6.9% touchdown rate (24th) to the position.

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