The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Spread | -4.0 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 23.0 | 17 | Points/Gm | 24.2 | 11 |
| 20.8 | 0 | Points All./Gm | 19.4 | 0 |
| 64.8 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 2 |
| 56.2 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.0 | 1 |
| 5.3 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 19 |
| 42.82% | 20 | Rush% | 41.17% | 24 |
| 57.18% | 13 | Pass% | 58.83% | 9 |
| 42.00% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.27% | 17 |
| 58.00% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.73% | 16 |
- The Chiefs are allowing 1.49 points per drive at home, 5th in the league.
- The Chiefs failed to cover the point spread in each of the past five games, tied for the worst streak in the league.
- The Chiefs have converted 34.8% of their third downs over their past five games (26th) after a 44% rate prior (6th).
- The Chiefs have a -7 sack differential over their past five games, 29th in the league.
- Kansas City has converted 18.3% (13 of 71) of their third and long situations (needing 7 or more yards), 29th in the league.
- The Chargers are averaging 4.2 yards per play since losing Joe Alt, 29th in the league.
- Since Week 10, 65% of the Chargers' sets of downs have reached third down, 31st in the league. Only the Titans are worse (67%) over that period.
- The Chargers have a 33.1% success rate on passing plays over that span, ahead of only the Browns (29.8%) and Titans (28.8%).
- The Chargers are averaging 1.8 plays per game of 20-plus yards over their past four games, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Things went even worse than expected for Mahomes in a challenging matchup against the Texans behind a shorthanded offensive line.
Mahomes ended up completing 14 of 33 (42.4%) passes for 160 yards (4.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
The -0.41 EPA per dropback was the worst of Mahomes’ career.
Mahomes was pressured on 47.4% of his dropbacks against a tough Houston front.
When pressured, Mahomes was 3 of 15 for 62 yards (4.1 Y/A) with an interception.
The Chiefs entered Sunday night missing Trey Smith, Josh Simmons, and Jawaan Taylor.
They lost Wanya Morris on the first play of the game.
Morris will now miss the rest of the season, putting the Chiefs in a hole at tackle.
We will follow the status of Smith and Taylor this week, but Simmons is on injured reserve.
Jaylon Moore was signed in free agency as a swing tackle, but he allowed a team-high 8 pressures on Sunday.
Dealing with pressure has been big for Mahomes all season.
He has completed 41.6% of his passes (28th) when pressured this year.
On top of the offensive line issues, the Chiefs also dropped a season-high 5 passes on Sunday night.
If it could go wrong, it did.
Mahomes has now finished higher than QB10 in one of his past six games.
To be fair to him from a fantasy stance, he has had tough draws against Buffalo, Denver, and Houston over that stretch.
The Chargers are not a free square, either.
With a lower-end team total against another formidable pass defense, Mahomes is a fringe QB1.
The Chiefs do get a rest advantage here at home, but the Chargers are allowing the fewest passing points per game this season (9.1), allowing a 60.3% completion rate (4th), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (5th), and a 3.1% touchdown rate (4th).
When these teams played in Week 1, Mahomes was 24 of 39 (61.5%) for 258 yards (6.6 Y/A) with a touchdown.
Xavier Worthy was injured on the opening drive of that game, and Rashee Rice was serving a suspension, but at least he had a healthy offensive line.
If there is a positive for Mahomes, the Chargers do not play much man coverage (30th at 13%), and did not play much man coverage in Week 1 (19%) even without the missing wide receivers.
There is a tradeoff, however.
Mahomes has averaged 8.5 Y/A against zone coverages (5th) compared to 5.6 Y/A against man coverages (28th), but he only has a 1.4% touchdown rate against zone coverages (29th) compared to a 7.4% touchdown rate against zone coverages (20th).
Mahomes added 57 yards and a touchdown on the ground that game, something he has done more this season than ever before.
After rushing for 59 yards on Sunday, Mahomes has set a new career-high with 407 yards rushing this season.
Mahomes has a career-high 9.2% scramble rate, already matching his career-high in scrambles (51) in a season after Sunday’s game.
Justin Herbert: Playing through a broken left hand and under relentless pressure against the Eagles, Herbert managed to squeeze out a win on Sunday night.
While his real-life performance was noteworthy in keeping the Chargers in line to make the postseason, we continued to receive limited fantasy output, and that is what we are here for.
Herbert completed 12 of 26 (46.2%) passes for 139 yards (5.3 Y/A) for 1 touchdown and an interception.
In the games that Joe Alt has missed, Herbert has now been the QB23 (14.6 points), QB14 (18.8 points), QB17 (14.7 points), QB31 (3.3 points), QB21 (12.8points), and QB18 (12.2 points).
As noted in the bullet points, this offense has been at the bottom of the league since Alt’s injury.
This is another tough matchup on the road with a low team total, keeping Herbert as a QB2.
Trent McDuffie could be out this week to weaken the back end, but the offensive line for the Chargers still has a challenge.
The Chiefs are fourth in pressure rate (41.1%), and we just saw Herbert pressured on 63.4% of his dropbacks on Monday night.
At home this season, the Chiefs have allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt (5th) and 3.6% touchdown rate (10th).
Like Mahomes, Herbert does still have an out via his rushing ability.
Even with the hand injury, Herbert was running aggressively on Monday night, leading the team with 66 yards rushing.
Herbert also has a career-high scramble rate this season (7.9%) and has a career-high 419 rushing yards.
The Chiefs are 29th in rushing points allowed (4.3 per game) to quarterbacks.
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | Thursday Night Football |
| Browns @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Monday Night Football |
