The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.

Kansas CityRank@CincinnatiRank
-2.5Spread2.5
27.5Implied Total25
29.61Points/Gm25.95
22.116Points All./Gm2113
66.56Plays/Gm65.69
63.117Opp. Plays/Gm61.37
6.51Off. Yards/Play5.614
5.313Def. Yards/Play5.415
36.89%29Rush%37.95%25
63.11%4Pass%62.05%8
37.18%3Opp. Rush %42.88%17
62.82%30Opp. Pass %57.12%16
  • The Chiefs have gained 885 more yards than their opponent since Week 7, the largest margin in the league since Week 7. The next closest team over that span is Dallas (+500 yards).
  • Over the past five weeks, the Bengals are first in the league in early down passing rate in neutral game scripts (66.4%) while the Chiefs are second (65.7%).
  • The Chiefs have led by double digits for 25.4% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
  • Kansas City is averaging a league-high 9.1 yards per play on third down. 
  • Kansas City is allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per play on third down.
  • 41.7% of the scoring plays allowed by the Bengals have been touchdowns, second in the league behind the Broncos (34.9%).
  • 68.0% of the scoring plays by the Bengals on offense have been touchdowns, third in the league.
  • 54.5% of Patrick Mahomes’s pass attempts on third down have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
  • 50.0% of Joe Burrow’s third down pass attempts on third down have resulted in a first down or touchdown, fourth in the league.
  • Patrick Mahomes leads the league in fantasy points scored inside of the red zone (118.9) while Joe Burrow is third (92.9).
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on 27.9% of their red zone plays against the Chiefs, the highest rate in the league.
  • Burrow has accounted for 79.4% of the Cincinnati offensive touchdowns (second among quarterbacks) while Mahomes has accounted for 78.9% of the Kansas City touchdowns (third).
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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): With another 320 yards passing Sunday, Mahomes has now thrown for 300 or more yards in six straight games. Mahomes has been a QB1 in nine straight games while his lowest weekly finish this year has been QB13 back in Week 2.

It will be interesting to see what the Bengals pull over from their approach when these teams played in the postseason a year ago. In that game, Mahomes was just 8-of-15 for 55 yards (3.7 Y/A) with no touchdowns and an interception in the second half after going 18-of-21 for 220 yards with three touchdowns in the first half. 

Cincinnati sent three or fewer pass rushers on 18 of Mahomes’s dropbacks in that game, holding him to 7-of-14 passing for 33 yards on those dropbacks. This season, Mahomes is facing man coverage on 35.5% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. Cincinnati is playing man coverage on 28.1% of passing plays, which is 10th in the league.

It may not matter much what the Bengals do based on how Mahomes is playing. The Bengals have also allowed top-15 scorers in three of the past four weeks to Jacoby Brissett (20.3 points), Baker Mayfield (14.2 points in a half of garbage time), and Kenny Pickett (16.0 points). Ryan Tannehill threw for 291 yards and 8.6 yards per attempt last week but did not find the end zone through the air. None of those players are in the stratosphere of Mahomes while we have the highest total on the board here in Week 13 to pursue.

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