The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon game.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 29 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 29.4 | 4 | Points/Gm | 25.6 | 10 |
| 22.4 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 16 |
| 67 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 8 |
| 62.8 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 2 |
| 6.1 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 16 |
| 5.8 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 18 |
| 37.64% | 27 | Rush% | 43.56% | 12 |
| 62.36% | 6 | Pass% | 56.44% | 21 |
| 39.04% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 42.77% | 21 |
| 60.96% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 57.23% | 12 |
- The Chiefs have won seven straight season openers, the longest ongoing streak in the league.
- The Chiefs are 5-2 against the spread in those games, with all seven of those games going over the game total.
- Kansas City led the NFL with just 22.6% of their possessions ending without a first down or touchdown, but also ranked 28th defensively in the same area (27.2%).
- The Chiefs led the league in scoring on 51.6% of their drives, which is the fourth consecutive season that Kansas City has scored on over 50% of their possessions. To put that into context, just one other team (the 2018-2019 Saints) has scored on half of their possessions in back-to-back seasons.
- Kansas City punted on just 25.5% of their possessions in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs converted 52.2% of their third down plays in 2021, the highest rate in the league.
- Kansas City was first in the league in generating a first down or touchdown on 30.4% of their first and second down plays.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in each of the past four seasons, finishing as the QB1, QB6, QB2, and QB5 in points per game over his stretch as a starter.
Mahomes has seen his yards per pass attempt drop from the previous year in each of the past three seasons, but he still has posted a touchdown rate over 5.0% every year as a starter while averaging 2.7 rushing points per game over that span.
The Chiefs are in a transition this season after trading Tyreek Hill and it has shown this preseason on a small sample. With Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have deployed heavier personnel, playing 11 personnel on just 51.4% of those snaps. They were in 11 personnel 66.2% of the time 2019-2021 with Mahomes under center. This could be an early signal in how they will combat how much two-high safety looks teams have given the Chiefs over the past two seasons, forcing teams to adjust that approach.
Mahomes was as sharp as ever on that limited exhibition run, completing 18-of-26 passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He peppered tight ends with eight of those targets out of those heavier looks.
This of course could be small sample variance as JuJu Smith-Schuster was shelved this preseason, but with the offensive line a major strength and their best pass catcher still being Travis Kelce, a shift towards that approach makes inherent sense.
The Cardinals have a lot of moving parts defensively that subjectively look worse on paper entering the season than where we last off. The team lost Chandler Jones and Jordan Hicks this offseason who were both among their top-5 players in pressures in 2021. Markus Golden is also expected to be a game-time decision while JJ Watt has yet to practice through Wednesday to further dampen the potential pass rush. This was already a defense that was 22nd in pressure rate collectively (29.1%) a year ago.
The secondary looks particularly questionable, with Trayvon Mullen and Marco Wilson expected to start alongside Byron Murphy at cornerback. Mullen logged just 157 coverage snaps in 2021 but allowed 14.3 yards per reception and a 95.8 rating in coverage for the Raiders. Wilson allowed a 129.8 rating in coverage on 491 coverage snaps, allowing a team-high seven touchdowns in coverage.
This was a defense that was shredded to close last season, allowing five top-10 scoring weeks to close 2021, surrendering 14 touchdowns over that span. They weren’t all front-end passers, either, as Jared Goff lit them up for 20.6 points over that stretch.
