The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Super Bowl 59 matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles.
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. Eagles covered in our Super Bowl 59 Hub.
Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
23.75 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
28.4 | 6 | Points/Gm | 23.2 | 12 |
17.9 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 19.4 | 4 |
64.9 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 9 |
60.3 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.0 | 11 |
5.7 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 22 |
4.8 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 12 |
55.86% | 1 | Rush% | 42.11% | 20 |
44.14% | 32 | Pass% | 57.89% | 13 |
40.38% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 41.33% | 8 |
59.62% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 58.67% | 25 |
Against the Spread:
- Chiefs: 8-10-1
- Eagles: 13-7
- Chiefs ATS as Favorite: 7-8-1
- Eagles ATS as Underdog: 3-0
Game Overview
This will be the second time these teams have met in the Super Bowl in three seasons.
Hopefully, the results will be as thrilling as that first matchup in 2022 when these teams combined for 73 points, with Kansas City coming ahead 38-35.
These teams also met last season in Week 11 of the regular season, with the Eagles winning 21-17 in a lower-scoring affair.
I believe this current matchup lends itself more toward last year’s final score than the 2022 Super Bowl and will highlight the potential shortcomings for fireworks.
Still, there is enough star power here for a high-scoring game paired with the unique elements under which the Super Bowl is played, potentially impacting the outcome.
Meeting for the third time in as many seasons, both teams come into the Super Bowl sporting strong peripheral metrics.
Kansas City will be looking to make history, attempting to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
They are the only back-to-back winner to make it into the Super Bowl for a chance at a three-peat.
With Patrick Mahomes, they are now 17-3 in the postseason with 9 straight wins.
The Chiefs, once again, are playing their best football when it matters most.
Excluding Week 18 when they rested starters, the Chiefs have won and covered the point spread in five straight games.
They are coming off scoring a season-high 32 points in the AFC Championship.
Kansas City has averaged 2.92 points per drive over their past four games with starters, scoring 27, 29, 23, and 32 points.
The market is certainly weighing that here since the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points once over their 16 games since their Week 5 bye.
The Chiefs averaged 2.27 points per drive before this stretch, which was still ninth in the league, but they have stepped up again.
The Chiefs have improved in the red zone over this recent run, scoring a touchdown on 61.9% of their red zone possessions over the past four games.
Before that, the starters had converted 50.9% of their red zone possessions, which was 26th in the league.
Kansas City has been a balanced team, leaning on their defense when applicable.
The Chiefs have allowed 1.98 points per drive (13th) and 5.4 yards per play (12th).
The Eagles are fresh off scoring 55 points in the NFC Championship, the most for any team in the Conference Championship in the Super Bowl era.
These teams are effective on offense but do so in different ways.
The Eagles are a big-play offense, while the Chiefs are built on playing ahead of the sticks.
Philadelphia has scored a league-high 22 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
The Chiefs have scored six, which is 28th.
The Chiefs' average touchdown length is 9.9 yards, the 31st in the league.
Philadelphia uses a lot of no-huddle plays, running the second-most (16.5 per game) in the league.
Using no-huddle, the Eagles average 6.8 yards per play, third in the NFL.
On non-no-huddle snaps, they dip to 5.3 yards per play, 16th in the league.
This postseason, the Eagles have run 55 no-huddle plays, averaging 7.2 yards per play on those snaps.
On non-no-huddle snaps this postseason, they average 5.5 yards per play, 8th among playoff teams.
The Chiefs have exceeded pass expectations for the season by 6% and 3% on first downs.
They want the ball in the hands of Mahomes.
In this postseason run, the Chiefs have thrown 11% and 10% over expectations.
The Eagles have thrown the ball 8% below expectations this season and 9% below expectations on first downs.
In this postseason, the Eagles have run the ball 12%, 11%, and 5% below expectations, and it is for good reason.
Saquon Barkley and his incredible season have carried the headlines from this Philadelphia campaign, but the Eagles defense has been the best unit in the league.
The Eagles allowed a league-low 1.62 points per drive this season, and that has held steady at 1.61 points allowed per drive in the postseason.
They are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 5.0 yards per play.
Big play prevention has been their calling card.
Philadelphia has allowed 10 or more yards on 17.5% of opponent plays (second in the league) and a league-low 4.6% of plays to gain 20 or more yards.
That has not been a necessary component for this Kansas City offense, which has been built on paper cuts since calibrating this offense after trading away Tyreek Hill.
This season, 19.2% of Kansas City offensive plays have gained 10 or more yards (18th) while 4.7% have gained 20 or more yards (26th).
Of course, we have already seen a similar layout, albeit with different personnel.
When these teams met in the 2022 Super Bowl, the Eagles allowed a league-low 4.8 yards per play and a gain of 20 or more yards on 4.5% of their plays on defense while allowing 1. 78 points per drive.
Both of these teams have been excellent at protecting the football.
The Eagles have turned the ball over on 5.5% of their drives, which is second in the league.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have turned the ball over on a league-best 2.8% of their possessions.
The Chiefs are third over that same span, turning the ball over on 5.1% of their possessions over their past 14 games. That rate dropped to a league-best 2.8% since Week 9.
We have consistently highlighted the importance of takeaways during this postseason, and that is just as magnified in the Super Bowl.
Teams that have won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl have a 39-7 record.
When these teams met in the 2022 Super Bowl, the Chiefs had the only takeaway, directly resulting in a defensive touchdown.
Both teams have tight metrics on offense and defense while protecting the football.
If there is one area where there is a wider margin between these teams this season, it has been on special teams.
The Chiefs are modestly 15th in the NFL in EPA on special teams (1.39), but the Eagles are 29th (-26.41).
The Eagles have made 79.1% of their field goals (25th).
The Chiefs have had some of the best field goal fortune in the league with their opponents making only 75% of their attempts, the second-lowest rate in the league.
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Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is making his fifth Super Bowl appearance, churning out the most fantasy production we have seen from him to close the year.
Mahomes has had games with 23.7, 26.0, and 30.1 fantasy points over his past four.
He had reached 20 points in just two of the opening 14 games of the season.
Mahomes threw for 9.4 yards per pass attempt in the AFC Championship, his best rate since the season opener.
He also rushed a season-high 11 times for 43 yards and 2 more touchdowns, the first time he ran for multiple touchdowns in his career.
The Chiefs added a new wrinkle with Mahomes having two designed runs after only one all season prior.
The second was a 10-yard touchdown.
Mahomes has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions over his past 11 games.
In the two matchups between these teams over the past two seasons, Mahomes has been held to 182 and 177 passing yards.
This matchup has several moving parts compared to the 2022 Super Bowl and last year’s matchup in the regular season.
Philadelphia has gone through two different defensive coordinators and now has Vic Fangio paired with different personnel.
By now, you have surely seen the splits that Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio over his time with Denver and last year’s stint in Miami.
While the Chiefs have regularly come out on top in those games, Fangio-led defenses have made Mahomes work.
He has only thrown 10 total touchdown passes in those games with no more than 2 touchdowns in any of them.
He has averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games, throwing for fewer than 7.0 Y/A in four consecutive games against Fangio-led defenses.
The latter was a decimated Miami defense that missed several starters.
While we do not need to get into the weeds on a sample size anchored by games from three-plus years ago carrying a ton of signal for Sunday, there are several top-down similarities with how Fangio typically has approached calling his defenses and how that aligns for this current matchup.
The Eagles prefer to play coverage and leave things to their defensive front in terms of generating pressures.
Philadelphia has blitzed on only 15.7% of dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league.
They have played man coverage on 23.8% of passing snaps, which is 20th in the league.
Philadelphia leads the NFL in Cover 6 on passing plays (18.6%) and is fifth in the league in rate of Cover 4 (18.6% of passing plays).
They aim to prevent plays, force shorter passes, and make tackles.
The Eagles have allowed the fewest yards after the catch per completion (4.7 yards).
Mahomes has 141 dropbacks this season against Cover 4 and Cover 6 looks.
On those plays, he is averaging only 6.6 Y/A (32nd).
Mahomes has only been blitzed on 22.4% of his dropbacks, which is 24th in the league.
Mahomes averages only 6.4 air yards per pass attempt, ahead of only Gardner Minshew (6.0) and Tua Tagovailoa (5.7).
Mahomes has thrown 30.4% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, a rate only ahead of Tagovailoa (31.1%).
Against those Cover 4 and Cover 6 coverages, that rate is a league-high 41.1%.
Only 26.4% of his passes have traveled 10 or more yards downfield, a rate that is only ahead of Minshew (23.2%).
Mahomes has had 58.4% of his passing yardage after the catch, the second-highest rate in the league.
If the Eagles are going to sit back and play coverage, Mahomes can have a high completion rate.
However, his yards per attempt will depend on the success of his playmakers after the catch against the league’s best defense at preventing those yards.
Of course, we still have the lore of postseason Mahomes in play.
In the past two seasons, Mahomes has faced a top-five pass defense and a top-five team in points allowed in the Super Bowl.
He completed 34-of-46 passes (73.9%) for 333 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception against the 49ers (25.9 fantasy points) last year.
In 2022, he completed 21-of-27 passes (77.8%) for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns (23.7 points).
As noted earlier, Mahomes has used his legs more of late.
His two highest totals in rushing attempts this season have come in these two playoff games.
It has not been uncommon for Mahomes to use his legs more in big games.
In his previous four Super Bowls, Mahomes has rushed nine times for 29 yards and a touchdown, five times for 33 yards, six times for 44 yards, and nine times for 66 yards.
Jalen Hurts: Hurts is coming off a massive game in the NFC Championship.
As a passer, Hurts connected on 20-of-28 passes (71.4%) for 246 yards (8.8 Y/A) with a touchdown.
He added 16 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
While Mahomes had his season-high in fantasy points in the AFC Championship, Hurts had only one game this season with more points than in the NFC Championship.
Hurts has taken some flak this season for being masked by the Philadelphia run game, but he still has plenty of strong metrics as a passer when the Eagles are throwing.
He completed 68.8% of his passes (6th) for 7.9 Y/A (5th) and a 4.9% touchdown rate (12th).
We noted how well Mahomes has protected the ball while producing scores.
Hurts has 33 total touchdowns and only 3 turnovers over his past 14 games.
As noted in the overview, the Eagles play the run-heaviest offense in the NFL.
As a byproduct of teams needing to dedicate bodies to slow down Saquon Barkley and Hurts himself, Hurts has faced defenders in the middle of the field on 55.4% of his dropbacks (10th).
Hurts has been blitzed on 29.9% of his dropbacks, the sixth-highest in the league.
All of that aligns with what the Chiefs have done defensively.
Kansas City plays man coverage on 30.1% of their defensive snaps (10th).
They play Cover 0 on 7.2% of snaps, the second-highest rate in the league.
They blitz 29.7% of the time (9th).
Hurts has some of the widest splits this season when he has been pressured versus throwing from a clean pocket.
When he has been kept clean, Hurts is third in the NFL in rating (118.1), completing 80% of his passes (first in the NFL) for 9.3 Y/A (3rd).
Under pressure, Hurts' rating dips to 21st (69.2), completing 44.4% of his passes (24th) and 4.9 Y/A (30th).
In the NFC Championship, Hurts was 3-of-8 for 31 yards (3.9 Y/A) with 2 sacks under pressure.
While that suggests that Kansas City will stick with its top-down tendencies and attempt to force pressure packages, Steve Spagnuolo has plenty of reasons to calibrate and adjust that approach here.
Spags may stick with aggressiveness or dialing calculated pressures (he will not call zero blitzes) because Hurts has a league-high 13.2% sack rate when blitzed.
When the Eagles do not take a sack on a drive, they have averaged 2.94 points per drive, sixth in the league.
But when they have a sack on a drive, they score 0.87 points per drive, 23rd in the league.
But there is a give and take here.
16 of the 19 sacks Hurts has taken when blitzed have come when he has held the ball over 2.5 seconds and tried to extend plays and evade pressure.
The Eagles are sixth in the league in ESPN's pass block win rate (67%) and sixth in Pro Football Focus' pass blocking grade.
The majority of the pressures and sacks that Hurts takes are self-induced.
19.8% of his pressures this season have been credited as his own doing per Pro Football Focus, the eight-highest rate in the league
We know the Chiefs will blitz and mix in man coverage, but playing more coverage here can be beneficial.
When blitzed, Hurts posted a 112.0 rating (8th), completing 66.4% of his passes (6th) for 8.1 Y/A (13th).
Against the blitz, 46.2% of his passes have come out within 2.5 seconds compared to 35% when he is not blitzed.
Against man coverage, Hurts has a 130.3 rating (2nd), completing 65% of his passes (4th) for a league-high 9.7 Y/A.
When facing zone coverages, Hurts has posted a 95.5 rating (13th), completing 71.9% of his passes (14th) for 7.4 Y/A (20th).
Only 36.4% of his throws against zone coverage have come out within 2.5 seconds compared to a 43.2% rate against man coverage.
Spagnuolo tested those splits in the 2022 Super Bowl and adjusted when these teams linked up last year.
In the Super Bowl matchup, Hurts was 27-of-38 (71.1%) for 304 yards and 1 touchdown passing.
The Chiefs played man coverage 36.4% of the time and blitzed Hurts on 35.7% of his dropbacks.
In the rematch last year, Hurts was 14-of-22 (63.6%) 150 yards (6.8 Y/A) with no touchdown and an interception.
In the 2023 matchup, the Chiefs lowered their man coverage rate to 30.8% and blitz rate to 32.1%.
There is an incentive for the Chiefs to dial back their aggressiveness even further in this matchup.
As noted earlier, when Hurts holds the ball longer, he gets in more trouble.
When holding the ball for 3.0 seconds or longer (blitzed or not), Hurts has a 20.6% sack rate (33rd) and has taken 37 sacks.
We saw the Chiefs do this in both matchups against Josh Allen, who also had wide splits this year against man coverage versus zone coverage (and could run).
In the AFC Championship, the Chiefs only blitzed Allen 18.9% of the time.
Even if the Chiefs throw more coverage at Hurts, they still have to contend with his rushing ability.
Hurts was the best player on the field in the 2022 Super Bowl.
Paired with his passing performance that game, he added 70 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns (41.2 fantasy points).
When they played last season, Hurts rushed for 29 yards and 2 touchdowns (18.9 points).
One thing we can see in this matchup, given the implied game outcome being tight, is the Eagles being pushed for four quarters and potentially playing catch up.
That can aid Hurts from a volume stance.
The Eagles are naturally run-centric, but their 39.2% dropback rate in the second half of games is by far the lowest in the league.
This postseason, that rate has gone down to 36.8%.
Under those conditions of running out of the game, Hurts and this passing game have had to run extremely efficiently.
Hurts has averaged 17.8 dropbacks per game in the first half this season, which is 15th in the league.
In the postseason, he is right on that average (17.7 per game).
But in the second half of games, Hurts has averaged a league-low 11.2 dropbacks per game, and that has dipped to 10.7 per game in these playoffs.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley: Barkley’s fantastic season continued in the NFC Championship, turning 16 touches into 122 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Barkley’s first touch of the game resulted in a 60-yard touchdown run.
That was his seventh touchdown run of 50 or more yards this season.
No other player has more than two.
That is the most touchdown runs of 50 or yards in an NFL season in the 2000s.
He has 10 touchdowns from outside of the red zone on the season.
No other player has more than 4.
The Chiefs have scored 6 total touchdowns from outside the red zone as a team, rushing or receiving.
Barkley had 1,354 rushing yards this season on runs of 10 or more yards, the most since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Barkley had 12 touchdowns on those runs, the most ever in a season.
Barkley is 30 rushing yards short of the most rushing yards ever over the regular and postseason in a single season.
While he is a sound bet to easily clear that total, this will be a strength-on-strength matchup based on seasonal production and the history of Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses in the postseason.
The Chiefs have allowed 3.9 YPC (2nd) to opposing running backs with a 63.9% success rate against those runs (8th).
They have allowed a first down or touchdown on 20.8% of those runs (8th).
The Chiefs have allowed an explosive run on 6.9% of running back runs, which is third in the league.
They allowed 25.7 explosive rushing yards to running backs per game, second in the league.
This unique run game is more of an issue for defensive matchups. It forces opponents to calibrate how to defend this run game versus Philly fully adjusting for the opponent.
Barkley has faced one other top-five run defense against backfields this season, which was Baltimore.
He rushed 23 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in that game.
The Chiefs have defended the run well over the larger sample, but they have trended negatively over their past three games with the starters coming into the Super Bowl.
In Week 17 against the Steelers, they allowed their running backs to rush 25 times for 147 yards (5.9 YPC).
In the Divisional Round, they allowed Houston backs to rush 23 times for 107 yards (4.7 YPC) and a touchdown.
In the AFC Championship, Buffalo backs rushed 21 times for 108 yards (5.1 YPC) and 2 touchdowns.
Previous Kansas City run defenses have been poor in the regular season but have improved in the postseason.
In the past two Super Bowls, the Chiefs have faced teams first and second in rushing yardage on the year but rallied to make those teams work in the big game.
In the 2022 Super Bowl, Philadelphia running backs rushed 17 times for 45 yards (2.6 YPC).
Saquon Barkley is on an entirely different spectrum than Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, but last year against Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers, the Chiefs limited San Francisco running backs to 90 yards on 25 rushes (3.6 YPC).
No running back has ever rushed for 90 yards against a Spagnuolo defense over 18 postseason games.
That does not mean Barkley still can’t score points if he held below his implied rushing total.
James Cook totaled 134 yards and 2 touchdowns in the AFC Championship game.
In last year’s Super Bowl, McCaffrey added 80 yards and a touchdown receiving.
We have not seen the Eagles incorporate Barkley heavily as a pass catcher this season, but the same could be said for Cook before the last time we saw this defense on the field.
This also ties into the level of aggressiveness that Kansas City may want to abstain from.
Playing more coverage can help prevent those long gains when Barkley hits the second level and has lived this season.
Of course, lighter boxes also mean increased opportunities for consistent yardage for Barkley.
Barkley has run with three or more wide receivers on the field 185 times.
On those runs, he leads the NFL with 6.9 YPC.
The Chiefs have allowed 4.4 YPC (17th) and a 9.8% explosive run rate (15th) on running back runs with three or wideouts on the field compared to 3.4 YPC (2nd) and a league-low 4.5% explosive run rate with two or fewer wideouts on the field.
The kicker, however, is that Barkley faced a light box (six or fewer defenders) on only 40.5% of his runs on those three-plus wide receiver sets, which was 38th in the NFL and well below the 48% base rate across the league.
The success of this chess match could depend on whether the Chiefs can play coverage and stop the run without loading the box when the Eagles run out of three wide receiver sets.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt has run ahead of Isiah Pacheco in the postseason.
After out-touching Pacheco 9-to-5 in the Divisional Round, Hunt handled 18 touches for 70 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship while Pacheco turned 7 touches into 24 yards.
Pacheco has rushed 10 times for 30 yards in the postseason, catching 2 passes for 12 yards.
Since returning to the lineup in Week 13, Pacheco has a 32.2% success rate and 3.4% explosive run rate compared to a 38.6% success rate and 10.0% explosive run rate for Hunt over that same period.
Hunt still needs to get into the end zone to get over for fantasy purposes, but he has out-snapped Pacheco 10-to-3 on goal-to-go plays this postseason.
This is a tough assignment for the Kansas City run game, which has struggled most of the year.
I would not be confident that Hunt repeats that same rushing volume here.
The Chiefs had some success early in the AFC Championship against a Buffalo run defense that has had its share of issues, but it was fleeting before it was back on par with what we have seen from this run game all season.
Hunt rushed four times for 34 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter of that game but then just 13 times for 30 yards the rest of the way.
In the second half, Kansas City running backs could not ice the game, rushing 10 times for 24 yards.
Kansas City running backs are averaging 3.7 YPC (30th).
The Eagles have allowed 4.1 YPC to running backs (6th) with a 65.1% success rate (6th).
They allow 1.13 yards before contact per rush (7th) while Kansas City running backs average 1.18 yards before contact per rush (23rd).
In these playoffs, the Eagles have a 71.2% success rate against backfield runs, with a first down or touchdown allowed on only 10.2% of those runs, the best rate of any team in the postseason.
Neither back here is a reliable pass catcher, with Samaje Perine still working on long down and distance situations and the hurry-up offense.
Hunt was on the field for 37.9% of the team's dropbacks in the playoffs followed by Pacheco (25.8%) and Perine (22.7%).
Perine has run all 15 routes by this backfield on third downs.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown: Brown collected 6-of-8 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship.
Brown received another 33.3% of the team targets, a regular occurrence when the Eagles pass.
