The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football game.
|46.43%||24||Opp. Rush %||26.25%||4|
|53.57%||9||Opp. Pass %||73.75%||29|
- Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 19-9 (67.9%) with the rest advantage, 11-3 with Patrick Mahomes as the starter.
- The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have won all three matchups between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, going 2-1 against the spread.
- In those three matchups, the Ravens blitzed Mahomes on 44.7% of his dropbacks. Against those blitzes, Mahomes is 48-of-63 (76.1%) for 554 yards (8.8 Y/A) with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
- Travis Kelce has scored 20 or more fantasy points in eight straight games played, tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes began the year with business as usual, producing 33.3 fantasy points and closing the opening week as the QB2 in overall scoring. It was the 10th game in which Mahomes eclipsed 30 points since he took over the starter, the most of all quarterbacks.
These teams are familiar with each other as they have played in each of the past three seasons. The Ravens refuse to alter their game plan against Mahomes, just sending blitz after blitz at him and giving up huge plays like they did at the end of the game Monday night to Derek Carr.
Mahomes is excellent regardless of what you do, but the book has been out for a while that you should just sit in zone and make him paper cut you over accepting a quick death. You need to get pressure with your front four. For his career against the blitz, Mahomes has completed 66.6% of his passes for 8.8 Y/A with 41 touchdown passes to three interceptions.
In the three meetings between these teams, Mahomes has been the QB1 (40 points), QB3 (27.9 points), and QB6 (20.8 points).
Lamar Jackson: Jackson got off to a slow start in Week 1, ending as the QB20 (18 fantasy points) against the Raiders. Jackson did end with 86 rushing yards, but a pair of lost fumbles pushed him down from being a fringe QB1 option down to a lower-QB2 in standard scoring leagues.
The Chiefs have given Jackson some issues when these teams have hooked up. Jackson has completed just 54.2%, 51.2%, and 53.6% of his passes in those games with 6.1, 6.2, and 3.5 yards per pass attempt. Jackson has rushed for 71, 46, and 83 yards in those games to give him a floor, but he closed those games as the QB12 (18.9 points), QB10 (21.3 points), and QB23 (14.2 points). Jackson always has a floor with his legs and this game could always light up the scoreboard, but Jackson is lower-end QB1 territory based on his history in this matchup.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: The playing time for Edwards-Helaire was a positive in Week 1 as he played 72.3% of the snaps (10th among backs) and he ran a pass route on 68.3% of the team dropbacks (seventh), but the overall line of 17 touches for 72 yards left a lot to be desired in the results. We still have yet to see Edwards-Helaire be involved as a true pass catcher. With three catches for 29 yards, Edwards-Helaire has now had three or fewer catches in 12 of his 16 career games played.
Edwards-Helaire may not have the elite ceiling paired with a high floor since the Chiefs are driven on getting the ball to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but a player on the field this much attached to the league’s best offense is going to run into better days.
In this matchup a year ago, Edwards-Helaire did rack up 25 touches, rushing 20 times for 64 yards and catching 5-of-6 targets for 70 yards, his best receiving game as a pro. The Ravens appear to be a sticky run defense again, allowing 2.8 YPC to Raiders backs in Week 1 (fourth in the league), but they did allow 18.7 receiving points to those backs, which was 29th. We will need that added passing game involvement for Edwards-Helaire as an RB2 option in Week 2.
Ravens RBs: Ty’Son Williams started the game on Monday and appeared to be a diamond for gamers as he turned five first quarter touches into 64 yards and a touchdown, even catching two passes for 23 yards as part of the production. He then progressively began losing snaps and making mistakes, finishing up with seven touches for 30 yards over the final three quarters and overtime. Williams had issues at the mesh point in the RPO game and in pass protection. Over the final three quarters and overtime, Latavius Murray accrued more touches (10). There were even questions of Williams’s conditioning factoring into his loss of snaps as the game wore on.
Williams had a chance to shut the door on this backfield being some form of committee and instead left the door wide open. Even through the mistakes, Williams had much more burst than Murray did. I am not sure Murray is a legitimate answer here, either.
We enter Week 2 with a bit of a mess, but we know the Chiefs are willing to allow production to opposing backs. The Chiefs surrendered 4.5 yards per carry (20th) in 2020 and allowed Cleveland backs to rack up 162 yards in Week 1. Ty’Son Williams is a step of faith RB3/FLEX while Murray is still just a bench hold.
Tyreek Hill: Hill pulled in 11-of-15 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown to open the season. Hill now has received double-digit targets in nine of his past 11 games, which is scary volume for a player of his scoring ability. Hill has only played in two of the three meetings between these teams the past three seasons, but he has games of 5-77-1 and 8-139-0 in those matchups. If the Ravens are going to send heat at Mahomes and put their secondary in a spot to defend Hill in one on one situations like they did last Monday night and in their previous matchups with Kansas City, there are good odds we will see the deuces thrown up on Sunday Night.
Marquise Brown: Brown caught all six of his targets for 69 yards and a score on Monday night. That now gives Brown 80 yards or a touchdown in nine straight games dating back to last season. The downside is he still lacks the overall volume we feel great about, as he has single-digit targets in all of those games. Brown also has games of 2-13-0 and 2-49-0 in his two matchups against the Chiefs, who have been notoriously stingy to opposing wideouts the past three seasons. Brown has been a consistent player for us dating back to last season, but is still more of a volatile WR3 needing a touchdown to carry his overall line.
Sammy Watkins: Week 1 Watkins came through again with Watkins catching 4-of-8 targets for 96 yards in his debut with the Ravens. Watkins has now gone over 80 yards receiving three times over the past three regular seasons, with all three coming in Week 1. That said, Watkins was a large part of the offense. He ran a route on a team-high 94.9% of the dropbacks and led the team in targets. With the potential game script at play, he should be handled similarly to Brown as a WR3/FLEX option, but a more appealing single-game DFS play as the Chiefs were fifth overall in yards allowed per target (7.5) to wide receivers in 2020 and were fourth in 2019 (7.0).
Mecole Hardman: Hardman was third on the team in routes run (34) in Week 1, but produced just a 3-19-0 line on three targets, which is more of what we have come to expect. We love the attachment to the offense and playing time, but there has been little to no return in actual production. Hardman has now played 39 career games and has more than four receptions in just one of them.
If looking for optimism, Hardman does have games of 4-81-1 and 2-97-1 in two matchups with the Ravens as he has hit on big plays with the Ravens sending pressure. That is not enough to elevate Hardman as a reliable seasonal starter, but gives him a pulse in single-game DFS.
Travis Kelce: Kelce began the season where he left off, catching 6-of-7 targets for 76 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Kelce has games of 6-87-0, 7-89-0, and 7-77-1 playing with Mahomes in this matchup with the Ravens and has six or more receptions in 12 straight games played. The Ravens did what they could defending 19 targets to Darren Waller on Monday night and allowed just 10.5 yards per catch and 5.3 yards per target, but Kelce is another tough matchup for them and a locked-in TE1.
Mark Andrews: Andrews was a letdown in Week 1, catching 3-of-5 targets for just 20 yards. The positive news is that he was in a pass route on 94.9% of the Ravens’ dropbacks, which led all tight ends to start the season. Andrews himself was at a 75% rate in 2020 when he was active. There will be better games if he is out there that much, but the overall team volume is still a thorn overall as Andrews has had single-digit targets in every game played but two for his career. He has also struggled in this matchup, posting lines of 3-22-0 and 3-15-0 the past two seasons on 15 targets. The Chiefs did allow seven catches for 120 yards to Cleveland tight ends in Week 1. Andrews is still a TE1 option in a potentially high-scoring game, but comes with a lower floor than his ADP peers at the position.
More Week 2 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: