The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Thursday Night Football game.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 20 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 14.3 | 32 | Points/Gm | 16.5 | 30 |
| 21.3 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 17 | 5 |
| 67.5 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 18 |
| 61.8 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.5 | 5 |
| 5 | 25 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 4.8 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 7 |
| 37.41% | 20 | Rush% | 42.11% | 13 |
| 62.59% | 13 | Pass% | 57.89% | 20 |
| 46.96% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 40.17% | 12 |
| 53.04% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 59.83% | 21 |
- Denver has led for 8.5% of their offensive snaps, 31st in the league.
- The Colts have been outscored by 42 points (65-23) in the first half this season, 31st in the league.
- The Colts have trailed for 93.8% of their second half offensive snaps, ahead of only the Jets (94.7%).
- Indianapolis has scored 40.1% of the points in their games this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- Indianapolis has scored on 25.0% (11-of-44) of their possessions, 31st in the league.
- Denver has punted on 47.7% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Denver has converted 30% (3-of-10) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Broncos have allowed a 33.3% (3-of-9) red zone conversion rate, the lowest in the league.
- Opponents have converted 80.0% (8-of-10) of their red zone possessions versus the Colts, the second highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: Wilson was finally able to cash in a strong matchup last week, turning in a QB3 (27.5 points) week. Wilson threw for a season-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt in his first game with multiple touchdown passes, tacking on a touchdown run for added measure. Wilson was the latest quarterback to take advantage of the Las Vegas pass defense as they have now allowed a top-10 scorer in every game this season.
Wilson will now face a Colts defense that is also struggling out of the gates, allowing 0.51 passing points per attempt (28th), a 69.1% completion rate (27th), 7.1 yards per attempt (15th), and a 5.7% touchdown rate (25th).
The Colts do play zone coverage on 74.0% of passing snaps (10th), something that has given Wilson trouble early in the season. Wilson is 33rd in EPA per dropback against zone coverage (-0.11). The Colts specifically play Cover-3 on 49.6% of passing snaps (second in the NFL) as their primary defense. Against Cover-3, Wilson has averaged 7.1 Y/A (30th).
One area where Wilson can make a significant impact is just getting the ball to his wide receivers more. Wilson is currently first in the NFL in EPA per dropback targeting Denver wideouts (0.54), but just 30th targeting backs and tight ends (-0.22 EPA per dropback). Wilson has targeted his wideouts just 50% of the time against zone coverage (36th) but does “climb” to 28th against Cover-3 (58.6%).
The Colts have struggled enough to offer Wilson an out through efficiency if he can roll over some of his Week 4 performance, but he is more of a boom-or-bust fringe QB1 option this week.
