The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Sunday afternoon game.
|40.00%||9||Opp. Rush %||47.50%||31|
|60.00%||24||Opp. Pass %||52.50%||2|
- The Colts have lost eight consecutive season openers, the longest streak in the league and tied for the third-longest in the Super Bowl era.
- Indianapolis is 1-6-1 against the spread in those games, with their last cover coming in 2014.
- 32.1% of the offensive plays versus Houston resulted in a first down or touchdown in 2021, the highest rate in the league.
- Houston allowed 69.2 yards per game on explosive rushing attempts, 31st in the league.
- The Colts led the NFL with 80.5 yards per game on explosive carries.
- 43.0% of the Indianapolis yardage gained came via rushing, trailing only the Eagles (43.5%) in 2021.
- The Colts led for 50.6% of their offensive plays in 2021, trailing only the Bills (58.1%).
- The Texans reached the red zone on just 20.2% of their drives in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Matt Ryan: Ryan is now 37 years old and is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, finishing as the QB30 in points per game (13.1).
Despite being saddled with a terrible team situation, Ryan was seventh in on target rate (78.9%) per Sports Info Solutions.
Despite his down counting stats in a poor Atlanta climate a year ago, Ryan still found success in poor matchups versus tougher draws, throwing for 7.4 Y/A and 255.3 yards per game against defenses in the back half of the league compared to 5.9 Y/A and 213.1 yards per game against front-half opponents.
And he draws one of the best objective paper matchups to open the year against a Houston defense that was 26th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.46), 30th in yards allowed per attempt (7.9 Y/A), and 22nd in touchdown rate (4.9%) allowed to opposing passers.
Houston is transitioning to a Cover 2 scheme under Lovie Smith and led the NFL with a 27.8% rate of the coverage in the preseason. Ryan really struggled against Cover 2 a year ago, finishing last in the league in yards per pass attempt (5.7 Y/A) versus the scheme. Of course, that was with the Falcons and their surrounding structure.
Ryan does not have the rushing juice to work his way into the QB1 room, but this is a strong setup for him out of the box in his debut with the Colts and should be considered one of the top streamers for Week 1, as well a solid QB2 in 2QB formats.