NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.

Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.

The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.

When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.

The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.

Slate Breakdown

The Houston Texans are heading to Indianapolis to take on the Colts as 1.5-point favorites. The total is set at 47.5.

Both teams have playoff implications on the line that requires them to win, thus making this essentially a Wild Card game.

The field may be down on the Texans after last week’s box score production, but the Titans failed to create any sort of urgency for C.J. Stroud.

With Gardner Minshew far more likely to create a shootout, the over is within reach.

All of the backs in this game will be heavily rostered, leaving an opportunity to play the mid-priced receivers. This is especially true for the Texans, who only have four viable wide receivers.

Injury Notes

  • Robert Woods – Hip – Questionable
  • Noah Brown – Back – Out
  • Zack Moss – Forearm – Questionable

Houston Texans Offense

Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:

Nico Collins $10,400 –

In Collins’ last five healthy games, he’s averaged over nine targets per game. He’s hit the 100-yard-bonus twice during that time and four times on the year. As the top receiver on the better offense with a far better quarterback, Collins is the strongest play on the slate.

C.J. Stroud $11,200 –

Collins will be the most popular captain, which will make Stroud go underutilized. The stacking options are not great outside of Collins, but Stroud still has Dalton Schultz, and the other options are quite cheap. It’s incredibly easy to stack Stroud with Collins, Schultz, and a $1,000 receiver while still affording more expensive Colts options.


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