Hopefully, you escaped the carnage of Week 2. Last week was another batch of games that essentially served as a preseason. While there was some good football around the league, there was a lot of sloppiness, as well, so hopefully, we’re out of the woods in that regard. There are some insanely high totals this week and plenty of fantasy goodness to be had across the main slate. Two teams are implied for over 30 points and three games are slated for 50+ points.
Oh I Just Can’t Wait to be Kingsbury
The crown is being lowered. We’re nearing coronation day. This is what we expected from the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray ($6,800) led Cardinals. Murray is the fourth-highest option at QB on the slate and it’s hard to argue against his price tag. The Cardinals are top-10 in overall explosive play rate and they’re fourth in explosive run rate.
Unfortunately, Arizona hasn’t been overly pass-happy on early downs. On first and 10, they’re passing just 39% of the time. Once they get to second down they begin to spread it out a bit more. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) looks like he’s set up for success again this week against a Detroit secondary that hasn’t really been successful in any zone of the field.
Hopkins has the most targets on the team and more than double the next highest option.
It’s hard to argue against a Kyler/Hopkins stack with the workload and projected game flow we’re looking at for this week.
The other team projected for 30+ points is the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson ($7,300) is cooking! NFL Twitter finally got through to Pete Carrol – meh, probably not. But, either way, it appears that Wilson is being unleashed to start the 2020 campaign.
Their lack of success with their 51-49 pass-run split on first downs between 8-10 yards has actually led to the unleashing of Russ. As the downs progress, they’ve been much more likely to call passes and, lo and behold, they’ve been successful when one of the best quarterbacks in the league throws more often!
Expensive stacks are sometimes difficult to play but there’s plenty of value this week, so stacking Wilson with either Tyler Lockett ($6,400) or DK Metcalf ($6,500) is certainly in play. On the way back, you can pick your favorite WR on the Cowboys.
So far in 2020, there’s been a clear exploitable portion of the field against Seattle. Short and intermediate throws to the left have been red hot.
Amari Cooper ($6,500) has seen the highest target share in that zone through the first to weeks of the year. If Cooper hauls in a touchdown last week, we’re looking at a monster game and he likely finds himself on somewhere around 18% of rosters. As things stand, he’s probably going to come in closer to 15% or so. Cooper’s been Dak Prescott’s ($7,200) go-to man seeing nearly 30% of Dallas’s targets.
Min-Priced Wide Receivers? Min-Priced Wide Receivers!
In Week 2, Chicago used more 12 personnel and it affected Anthony Miller’s ($4,900) usage. He saw just three targets despite his salary being $5,200 in a plus-matchup. Miller was only on the field for 29-of-64 snaps. Darnell Mooney ($3,000), on the other hand, played 61% of the snaps and even saw a red zone target.
The Bears are in the top-10 of wide receiver target rate, so there’s a large pie there. This obviously isn’t a lock play, but if you’re playing multiple lines then a share or two of Mooney can really let you pay for whatever other plays you feel like jamming in.
The other min-priced wide receiver that’s worth a look is K.J. Hamler ($3,000). We could look back in a few weeks and really wonder what DraftKings was doing when they priced him here. He played about two-thirds of the snaps in Week 2 and saw seven targets!
WR-RB Correlation Play
It’s not the highest total by any stretch, but the Cleveland-Washington game is catching my attention. Nick Chubb ($6,900) is going to go under-rostered. There’s a lot of trepidation about Chubb because of the presence of Kareem Hunt ($6,100) but in a competitive game where they could’ve used him, he only was on the field for 34% of his team’s snaps.
If the Browns are able to get a lead and control the game with Chubb, then WFT will have to throw. Terry McLaurin ($5,900) is coming off of a monster game and has been targeted frequently to start the year.
Last week, he hauled in 7-of-10 targets for 125 yards and one touchdown. McLaurin has provided a 126 passer rating through the first two weeks of the year. This isn’t a traditional stack, but it’s a way to get exposure to a lower-owned game and both Chubb and McLaurin have shown sky-high ceilings in the past.