We’re back again trying to uncover some stacks and contrarian plays that can pay off for us on DraftKings this weekend. Dallas continues to provide fantasy goodness and that doesn’t seem like it’s going to stop any time soon. There's plenty of value to be found elsewhere across the board.
Is Jerry World the new Coors Field of DFS?
The Cowboys are one of the most friendly defenses in the league. Just picture Oprah jumping around screaming “you get an explosive play…and you get an explosive play…EVERYBODY GETS EXPLOSIVE PLAYSSSSS” and you’d get the picture.
Not only has that led to fantasy scoring from opposing offenses, but it’s also led to an emphasis on the pass for the Cowboys offense.
Dallas has run 11 Personnel at the highest rate of anyone in the league. In fact, there are 10 teams in the league that have run fewer total plays than Dallas has run out of 11 personnel. They’ve passed at the highest rate of anyone in the league, sporting a 69-31 pass-run split across all game situations.
When they’ve been ahead, though, that split flips to 43-57. Enter Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800). He has out-carried Tony Pollard 70-7. Not only that, but he’s seen spike weeks in the passing game, as well. Amari Cooper ($7,400) is the clear target hog in the offense, but Zeke is second in targets.
You can stack this game up however you want, but I think a Dak Prescott ($7,400), Zeke, Cooper stack could be unique despite their individual chalkiness. The Giants will need to keep pace which means you could run it back with Darius Slayton ($4,800) or Evan Engram ($4,600) for some savings and feel great about your upside.
Forget About Diontae
That was supposed to be read like “Forgot About Dre”, so if you want to take a second and re-read it… go ahead, I’ll wait. Welcome back to you and welcome the Steelers back to the main slate. Diontae Johnson’s ($5,600) price doesn’t reflect his usage from before his impromptu bye week. In theory, the postponement of their game last week actually worked for Diontae as it gave him more time to recover from his concussion. In the first two weeks, he was targeted 23 times.
He’s been used all over the field and I think that trend continues again this week.
Stacking him with Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) and bringing Zach Ertz ($5,700) back on the other side of the game makes a ton of sense.
Ertz thrives where Pittsburgh has struggled against tight ends. He’s seen the largest workload of any pass catcher through the first month of the season.
Min Priced WRs? Min Priced WRs!
This week, our first min-priced receiver comes with a bit of a caveat. Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000) has been on the field for 75% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks. If Julio Jones ($6,800) and/or Calvin Ridley ($7,500) comes in at less than full-strength, Zaccheaus is definitely in play.
Over the past two weeks, he’s shown a connection with Matt Ryan ($6,100). Zaccheaus has the second-highest passer rating when targeted during that span.
The other wide receiver that’s still at min-price for unknown reasons is Damiere Byrd ($3,000). It’s worth noting that we’re not like jamming these guys in together in cash or anything, but it’s hard to argue with a receiver at this price that’s seeing any sort of volume.
He’s another classic example of someone who does most of their work in an area of the field that you can exploit against the defense he’s facing. The heatmap tool is a fantastic way to check for matchups like that to exploit.
Note: With the Patriots-Broncos game moved to Monday night, Byrd won't be in early-game only slates, but will be available for those slates that carry through Monday's games.
Kyle Shannahan Loves Tight Ends
Taking a look at the target share by position tool tells us quite a bit about who we should be targeting in DFS – or streaming in season-long if possible – for that week.
The 49ers target the tight end at the third-highest clip in the league. On the season so far, they’ve run two (2) plays from 10 Personnel and one (1) play with five wide receivers on the field. Kyle Shannahan is allergic to formations that don’t include at least one fullback or tight end.
We talked about it with a few matchups already but we love when those beautiful red spaces overlap in our heatmaps tool. George Kittle ($6,600) fits that bill this week. When Kittle returned last week he saw 15 targets. He caught all 15 of those targets for 183 yards and a score. Kittle is second on his team in targets despite missing two games. The correlation play on the other side would be DeVante Parker ($5,900). Parker put up 24 DK Points on a dozen targets last week despite failing to find the end zone.
