Colts vs. Dolphins Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Colts and Dolphins.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa: While they performed better with Tagovailoa healthy last season, the passing attack struggled to get the ball down the field, an area where this passing game has regressed under Mike McDaniel.

Tagovailoa attempted a league-high 31.1% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

He attempted only 27.1% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, ranking 34th in the league.

A league-low 7% of his throws went 20 or more yards downfield last season.

Miami had a league-low 3 passing touchdowns from outside the red zone last year compared to 10 in 2022 (7th) and 13 in 2023 (2nd).

Injuries and the state of this offensive line have contributed to those declining rates, which have been steady in the past three seasons.

Everything that needs to rebound revolves around this offensive line being better in 2025.

This unit was again at the heart of the primary issues for the offense.

Miami ended the year ranking 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric (56%) and 26th in run block win rate (70%).

At Pro Football Focus, they ranked 20th in team pass blocking grade and 27th in run blocking grade.

This team struggled to keep anyone on the field up front.

Miami’s most frequently used combination across the line was on the field for 35.7% of their offensive snaps.

The subpar play up front impacted Miami’s ability to punish teams for playing shell coverage against their speedy receiving unit in the run game, reducing the passing game to a dink-and-dunk operation.

No team faced a higher rate of two-high safeties than Miami did last year, at 53.1% of their dropbacks.

They could not make those defenses pay for that in the run game.

It was a small sample in the preseason without Tyreek Hill available, but the vibes were not glowing this summer from this passing offense.

Tagovailoa averaged 6.3 air yards and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt on 16 dropbacks in the exhibition period, taking two sacks.

Tagovailoa is a floor-based QB2 to open the year in this matchup.

The Colts are in a transitional period defensively, moving on from Gus Bradley and hiring Lou Anarumo as their new defensive coordinator.

They had an injury bug on the back end this summer, but the Colts have revamped their secondary and are expected to have everyone available for the opener.

The Colts added Charvarius Ward, Xavien Howard, and Cam Bynum in free agency after ranking 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.450) in 2024.

Kenny Moore remains the nickelback while Nick Cross took a step forward last season.

On paper, this is an improved unit, but playing indoors with all of the Miami team speed can present a challenge.

Daniel Jones: Jones “won” the starting job this summer, completing 53.1% (17 of 32) of his passes for 245 yards (7.7 Y/A).

The only player Jones finished ahead of last season in rating (79.4) was Anthony Richardson (61.6).

With Jones, the Colts should place more emphasis on a shorter passing attack.

Since Jones entered the league in 2019, he has averaged 7.3 air yards per pass attempt, 38th among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.

Just 8.7% of his career throws have gone 20 or more yards downfield (43rd).

However, on that same list of 45 quarterbacks, he ranks 40th in rating on throws under 10 yards downfield.

You can make excuses for Jones based on the quality of pass catchers he had in New York, but he was 31st in that department last season with the addition of Malik Nabers.

Jones does provide enough rushing ability to be a matchup-based streamer and QB2.

Miami's defense is one that I believe has holes in its secondary, but this front and pass rush could help mask some of those potential deficiencies.

Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are back, while the team added Matthew Judon to Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler, who were effective pass rushers a year ago.

Miami was 15th in pressure rate in 2024 (34.9%) and ranked 10th in pressure rate without blitzing (33.5%) without those key pieces.

Jones has had his share of issues when pressured, completing 50.3% of his career throws when pressured for 5.3 yards per pass attempt, taking a sack on 22.4% of those dropbacks.

Running Back

More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: