The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon game.
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 26.25 | Implied Total | 22.25 | ||
| 25.5 | 12 | Points/Gm | 19.1 | 25 |
| 23.1 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 27.5 | 31 |
| 63.2 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 19 |
| 63.8 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 21 |
| 5.7 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 21 |
| 5.2 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 30 |
| 49.87% | 1 | Rush% | 40.44% | 21 |
| 50.13% | 32 | Pass% | 59.56% | 12 |
| 42.60% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 47.44% | 30 |
| 57.40% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 52.56% | 3 |
- The Eagles led the NFL in expected points added via rushing (64.6 EPA) in 2021.
- 55.6% of the Philadelphia offensive touchdowns were on the ground, the highest rate in 2021 and the eighth-highest rate since 2010.
- Detroit allowed a league-high 38.5 yards per possession in 2021.
- The Lions scored a touchdown on 46.7% (21-of-45) of their red zone possessions, ahead of only the Giants (44.7%) in 2021.
- Detroit was the league’s worst offense on third downs, converting just 34.7% of their third downs for a first down.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (TRUST): Hurts was the QB6 in points per game in 2021 (20.8), posting 11 QB1 scoring weeks in 16 starts, which was tied for the most in the league. 44.3% of Hurts’s fantasy output came via rushing production as he posted a league-high 9.2 rushing points per game, rushing for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Hurts draws a soft matchup to open the season as the Lions were 30th in expected points allowed as a pass defense in 2021. Detroit was 22nd in completion rate allowed (66.1%), 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.0 Y/A), and 31st in touchdown rate allowed (5.7%) to opposing passers.
When these two teams met a year ago, it was a fulcrum point for the 2021 Philadelphia season. The team was 2-5 up until that point, while operating with a 60% pass play rate outside of the fourth quarter of games. The team then went 7-3 over the remainder of the season with a 44% pass rate outside of the fourth quarter, which was the lowest rate in the NFL. Philadelphia threw the ball at a 37% clip while ahead on the scoreboard, which was dead last in the league.
That all started in a 44-6 in Detroit in which the Eagles threw the ball just 16 times while running it 46 times. Up until that point, Hurts was a QB1 scorer in every week of the season.
We always want to pursue positive game scripts for quarterback scoring and for whatever it is worth, I believe the Eagles are incentivized to push their chips in on aggressively maxing Hurts out this season as a factor if they want to be all in on him moving forward. The offseason has suggested as much. While they are going to have a great running game, the marriage of their passing splits from the front and back half of 2021 likely meet somewhere in the middle as the team gives Hurts more to do.
