The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.

AtlantaRank@Tampa BayRank
8.5Spread-8.5
20Implied Total28.5
25.88Points/Gm20.516
25.325Points All./Gm175
5925Plays/Gm61.319
6521Opp. Plays/Gm6727
5.99Off. Yards/Play5.222
5.924Def. Yards/Play4.85
55.51%2Rush%33.88%30
44.49%31Pass%66.12%3
39.62%11Opp. Rush %37.31%7
60.38%22Opp. Pass %62.69%26
  • Tom Brady-led teams have a career 10-0 record against Atlanta.
  • Brady has thrown 28 touchdowns to four interceptions in those games, with 15 touchdown passes in four games playing with the Buccaneers.
  • Opponents have scored on 47.5% of their possessions versus Atlanta, the second highest rate in the league.
  • The Falcons are first in the NFL in rushing rate on first down (70.2%) while also ranking second on yards per carry (6.2 yards) on those first down runs.
  • 48.1% of the yardage gained by Atlanta has come via rushing, fourth in the league.
  • 20.6% of the yardage gained by Tampa Bay has come via rushing, 30th in the league.
  • The Buccaneers are last in the league in EPA per rush (-0.326).
  • Atlanta is the last remaining team that is undefeated against the point spread this season.
  • The Falcons are 31st in catchable target rate (63.0%) ahead of only the Bears (59.7%).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tom Brady (TRUST): The Buccaneers finally are back to having their receiving room back to full strength and we could immediately see the difference in Brady’s output for fantasy. 

After finishing as the QB17 or lower in each of the opening three games, Brady closed last week as the QB4 (25.4 points). Brady threw three touchdowns after three over the opening three games, completing a season-high 75% of his passes for 385 yards.

The Bucs were much more aggressive, throwing the ball 16% over expectation in Week 4, their highest rate in a game. While last week’s conditions were aided by chasing points against the Chiefs, it is easy to see the Bucs having more confidence in their passing game at full strength. Especially since they still struggled to run the ball when they did try.

This week, Brady draws an Atlanta defense he has roasted as a Buccaneer. In his four games versus Atlanta with Tampa Bay, Brady has closed as the QB11, QB4, QB2, and QB3. The Falcons enter this week allowing 16.5 passing points per game (21st) despite facing Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smtih, and Jacoby Brissett. 

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