With training camps open, fantasy football draft season is finally here, meaning it is time for another mock draft.
This one was a PPR draft that took place on July 18th.
I picked from the No. 12 slot.
Unlike the best ball draft I did back in early June, I used my preferred receiver heavy start in this one and came away with a team I feel much better about.
There were certainly some mistakes which I will discuss, but this is the kind of team I feel will get better as the season goes on with key running back additions on the waiver wire.
This draft was filled with great analysts, so make sure to give them a follow.
Draft Order:
- Nic Bodiford – PFF & Rotoworld
- Tom Strachan – The Fantasy Sanctuary & Fantasy Pros Featured Writer
- Sam Wagman – FootballGuys
- Amr Gabr – Independent
- Ryan Heath – Fantasy Points
- Neil Dutton – RotoViz & 4for4
- Ben Cummins – FootballGuys
- Jorge Martin – Injury Prone Podcast & Familia FFB
- LaQuan Jones – NFL Network & Rotoballer
- Alex Rikleen – RotoWire
- Andrew Hall – Fantasy Pros
- Raymond Summerlin (me)
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Round 1 Analysis:
- Christian McCaffrey
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tyreek Hill
- Bijan Robinson
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Breece Hall
- Puka Nacua
- Saquon Barkley
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- A.J. Brown (me)
This first round did not go like the first rounds you see in a lot of best ball contests, but it might look closer to traditional redraft leagues drafted in August.
The big difference here was Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs both going at the end of the round.
Barkley specifically is rarely taken this high, often falling closer to the end of the second round.
Personally, however, I do value Barkley more than Gibbs, a player who has an undeniable overall RB1 ceiling should something happen to David Montgomery but might struggle to reach these heights without an injury.
Gibbs was the per game RB10 in half-PPR scoring with both Montgomery and him healthy from Week 10 on, and that was with him beating Monty in touchdowns and seeing one more carry in goal-to-go situations.
Those picks helped A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson slip to me at the turn, which I will take every single day of the week.
Round 2 Analysis:
- Garrett Wilson (me)
- Drake London
- Jonathan Taylor
- Marvin Harrison
- Davante Adams
- Josh Allen
- Chris Olave
- Sam LaPorta
- De’Von Achane
- Nico Collins
- Jaylen Waddle
- Derrick Henry
Jonathan Taylor going 15 overall gave us six running backs in the first 15 picks, and two more backs (De’Vone Achane and Derrick Henry) came off the board before the end of Round 2.
While that is a little more than we are seeing in Underdog drafts, traditional leagues could get into the eight to nine range consistently depending on how high Kyren Williams climbs with good camp news.
Josh Allen does not usually go this high, and we saw a knock on effect with three more quarterbacks coming off the board in the third round.
Like running back, though, this is the kind of thing we could see in traditional redraft leagues as we get into August.
Round 3 Analysis:
- Mike Evans
- Kyren Williams
- Brandon Aiyuk
- D.J. Moore
- Travis Etienne
- Jalen Hurts
- Travis Kelce
- Cooper Kupp
- Lamar Jackson
- Isiah Pacheco
- Patrick Mahomes
- Michael Pittman (me)
The Kyren Williams discount is soon to be gone given the news early in camp, but this actually might be near where he ends up in drafts given how much running backs were pushed up in the first two rounds compared to their ADP at Underdog.
That said, I would be surprised if he is not in the second round at some point, which takes away that chance to get two receivers before landing the back who finished last season as the per game RB2 in half-PPR scoring.
There is nothing wrong with Lamar Jackson going as the overall QB3, but I think there is a decent argument he should be the overall QB1 in ADP.
Baltimore ran just 85 offensive plays while trailing in the second half last season, easily the fewest in the league and the seventh fewest since 2000.
Baltimore’s dropback rate when leading in the second half was 44.3%, and they were almost always leading in the second half, helping to explain their low dropback number.
The Ravens were ninth in dropback rate in the first half of games last season and seventh in neutral pass rate according to RBSDM.
Jackson has averaged 0.68 fantasy points per dropback throughout his career.
He averaged 0.59 last season, just behind Brock Purdy (0.61) and Josh Allen (0.6) for the league lead.
Allen had 651 dropbacks last season. If Jackson can get there and meet the below career average per dropback number from last season, we are looking at an overall QB1-type.
Round 4 Analysis:
- Deebo Samuel (me)
- Malik Nabers
- Zay Flowers
- Stefon Diggs
- DeVonta Smith
- Rachaad White
- Josh Jacobs
- Tank Dell
- Trey McBride
- DK Metcalf
- Mark Andrews
- Kyle Pitts
The tight end run at the end of this round is interesting.
First of all, the decision between Trey McBride and Mark Andrews for that TE3 spot is a difficult one.
McBride is an ascending young player who proved capable of handling a large target share at the end of last season, but the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. raises some questions about how many targets he will get moving forward even if he will almost certainly remain the No. 2 option in the passing game.
McBride was the TE5 for points per game in half-PPR leagues over the final nine weeks, but he was third among tight ends in total targets and first in target share over that run.
Andrews averaged 1.96 yards per route run before suffering his injury last year, good enough for third among qualifying tight ends, and 8.9 yards per target (2nd).
Neither of those numbers is an outlier for Andrews, and the yards per route is actually below his career average.
When paired with the possibility the Ravens have to throw more moving forward as discussed above, Andrews may have a better case for that TE3 spot.
As for Kyle Pitts, there is usually a little daylight and another player (Dalton Kincaid) between him and those other two tight ends.
Pitts has burned enough fantasy players that the trepidation about him is warranted, but he is almost certainly walking into the best opportunity thus far in his career both in terms of scheme and quarterback.
He is also still just 23. Pitts is younger than both Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid and the same age as Sam LaPorta.
Round 5 Analysis:
- Amari Cooper
- Tee Higgins
- Joe Mixon
- Keenan Allen
- James Cook
- Dalton Kincaid
- Kenneth Walker
- George Pickens
- Alvin Kamara
- George Kittle
- Aaron Jones
- Anthony Richardson (me)
Aaron Jones going one pick before me really altered the strategy.
I had planned to grab both Jones and James Conner at this turn, two players I think are undervalued and offer great options for teams that start receiver heavy.
I do not feel as strongly about the names behind them – although David Montgomery has the same kind of high-end RB1 contingency value as Jahmyr Gibbs at a much lower price – so I made the quick decision to go quarterback.
Anthony Richardson is the right kind of quarterback to take a shot on early because of his high-end rushing ability.
He was the QB4 and QB2 in his two full games last season, and he scored 17.7 fantasy points in just 18 snaps in Week 2.
That said, Kyler Murray went in the eighth round, and Jayden Daniels was available in the 10th.
Neither of those players projects as well as Richardson, but Daniels offers the same kind of rushing upside while Murray has some of that ability along with a steady QB1 track record and a new alpha receiver.
In hindsight, ending up with Terry McLaurin instead of Richardson at this turn and then getting Daniels later would have been a better outcome.
As for the rest of the round, I will continue to beat the drum for George Pickens, the clear No. 1 option in a passing game that should fit his skill set perfectly.
Round 6 Analysis:
- James Conner (me)
- Evan Engram
- C.J. Stroud
- Christian Kirk
- David Montgomery
- Terry McLaurin
- Rome Odunze
- Rashee Rice
- Xavier Worthy
- Chris Godwin
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Jayden Reed
The price for James Conner continues to rise, but he remains one of my favorite picks for teams that start receiver heavy.
Among 68 qualified running backs, Conner finished seventh in yards per carry (5.0), sixth in explosive run rate (14.9%), and second in yards after contact per rush (3.93) last season.
Perhaps most impressively, he did that while facing the 12th-highest rate of eight-man boxes among those qualifying backs, and that rate mostly stayed the same even once Kyler Murray returned.
Conner was the RB10 in per-game scoring in half-PPR leagues, and he was the RB6 from Week 10 on after Murray returned.
He scored 7 of his 9 touchdowns over his final five games of the season as Arizona’s offense began to click – the Cardinals were fifth in points per drive over that span.
Conner is going to miss some games. That is a given. He also is not as involved in the passing game as you would like, opening the door for third-round rookie Trey Benson, who is also a threat to early down work.
Even with all of that, though, he still looks like a value.
Round 7 Analysis:
- Jordan Love
- DeAndre Hopkins
- D’Andre Swift
- Najee Harris
- Joe Burrow
- Tony Pollard
- Jordan Addison
- David Njoku
- Raheem Mostert
- Christian Watson
- Zamir White
- Jake Ferguson (me)
The Packers' passing game had a nice run here with Jayden Reed and Jordan Love at the turn and then Christian Watson near the end of the round.
That is something of an aggressive price for Love, who went ahead of Joe Burrow, but it is a nice value for both Reed and Watson and helps mitigate some of the risk for both of them.
For Reed, the risk comes down to how involved he will be if both Watson and Romeo Doubs are healthy.
Love had 179 dropbacks last season with only 1-2 WRs on the field including the playoffs. Reed was on the field for only 4 of them.
Obviously, things can change moving forward, and the Packers mostly have three receivers on the field – 62.7% of dropbacks were 11 personnel last season.
Also, Reed was good last year, especially if we look at the back half of the season when the Packers were cooking.
He was 13th in yards per route run among qualified receivers from Week 9 on. Unfortunately, he was on the field for 55% of Green Bay’s dropbacks over that span.
For Watson, there were 159 passing plays last season including the playoffs when he, Reed, and Doubs were all on the field.
On those plays, Watson led the team with a 25.9% target share and 2.11 yards per route run.
Watson also dominated the money work near the goal line. He had just 1 fewer target than Doubs in the end zone last season despite playing just nine games.
Of course, playing in just nine games is the concern for Watson.
Round 8 Analysis:
- Marquise Brown (me)
- Calvin Ridley
- Diontae Johnson
- Ladd McConkey
- Dak Prescott
- Jonathon Brooks
- Brian Thomas
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Kyler Murray
- Nick Chubb
- Jaylen Warren
- Keon Coleman
This is an amazing price on Calvin Ridley, who I am not the biggest fan of this year because I am not sure how large a share of that passing game he can get, but I should have taken him over Brown.
The Titans are going to throw more this season. Probably a lot more. The Titans were third from bottom in neutral pass rate with Will Levis last season.
From 2019-2023 with the Bengals, new coach Brian Callahan’s offense threw the ball 3% over expectations
You might say they have Joe Burrow, but he was not there for the first season and missed significant time in two others as well as just not being right for most of last year.
From Week 12 on with Jake Browning at quarterback last season, the Bengals were still 2% over their expected pass rate.
Everything the Titans did this offseason suggests they want to open it up, and that should create fantasy value for someone in this offense based on where they are being drafted.
I continue to not understand Brian Thomas’ draft cost, and I outright think Gabe Davis should be drafted ahead of him.
We will see what happens, but early camp reports suggest Thomas is behind Christian Kirk, Davis, and Evan Engram in the target pecking order.
Round 9 Analysis:
- Tyler Lockett
- Curtis Samuel
- Austin Ekeler
- Javonte Williams
- Zack Moss
- Devin Singletary
- Brock Bowers
- Courtland Sutton
- Brian Robinson
- T.J. Hockenson
- Dallas Goedert
- Tyjae Spears (me)
T.J. Hockenson over Dallas Goedert might seem odd given Hockenson is very likely to begin the season on the PUP list, but at least Hockenson comes with some upside.
Over the past two seasons, Goedert has just five games as a top-six fantasy scorer with only two weeks as a top-three scorer.
He has never scored more than 5 touchdowns in any season, which has capped his upside.
There is some contingency value if something happens to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but that is the real upside case for Goedert.
As for Hockenson, he should come back as the No. 2 option in his passing game and has already shown TE1 viability in that role even if there is a concern about the Vikings quarterback situation moving forward.
The gap between Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears has closed much more than this mock draft indicates, but I was very excited to get Spears this late.
Pollard should be projected ahead of Spears and is the most likely back to lead this backfield in touches come the end of the season, but the coaching staff has already called the two backs interchangeable.
There are caveats about Pollard’s health and the kind of touches Spears was given, but Spears was simply more efficient last season.
Round 10 Analysis:
- Gus Edwards (me)
- Trey Benson
- Romeo Doubs
- Blake Corum
- Jameson Williams
- Caleb Williams
- Khalil Shakir
- Josh Downs
- Jerome Ford
- Jayden Daniels
- Chase Brown
- Ezekiel Elliott
Khalil Shakir, the incumbent receiver who averaged 1.84 yards per route run playing with target hog Stefon Diggs last season, is going behind both Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.
I am not confident Shakir is the Buffalo receiver you want, but getting him at a discount to the other two makes a lot of sense.
It was discussed earlier, but Jayden Daniels is exactly the kind of quarterback to target if you miss out on one of the elite guys.
If he hits, you are looking at one of the premier rushing quarterbacks in the league.
If he busts, you can just stream and it did not cost you much draft capital.
Caleb Williams is not at that level because he is unlikely to be the same kind of runner as Daniels, but he certainly comes with high-end upside as well, especially with the weapons around him in that revamped Bears offense.
The price for Chase Brown is certain to rise with reports out of camp he is sharing first-team reps with Zack Moss.
Round 11 Analysis:
- Rashid Shaheed
- Brock Purdy
- Adonai Mitchell
- Jaylen Wright
- Kendre Miller
- Jakobi Meyers
- Zach Charbonnet
- Pat Freiermuth
- Jonnu Smith
- Rico Dowdle
- Mike Williams
- Jerry Jeudy (me)
We all might be too low on Rashid Shaheed.
Shaheed was targeted on 21.2% of his routes run without Michael Thomas on the field last season (193 routes) compared to only a 14.3% rate when Thomas was on the field (238 routes).
He was also put in bad situations on a lot of his opportunities last season.
Among all wide receivers to run 400 or more pass routes last season, Shaheed led the NFL with 30.2% of those being Go routes.
32.0% of Shaheed’s targets were over 20 yards downfield, third in the NFL among all wideouts with 50 or more targets on the year.
We should have faith in the new coaching staff getting him better targets, and we have already seen what kind of target share he can get as the clear No. 2 option.
Jonnu Smith is the late-round TE darling of the fantasy community this season, and I do not have much reason to push back against that aside from Miami’s lack of TE targets the last couple of seasons.
Over the last two years, Tua Tagovailoa is dead last among qualified quarterbacks in the rate of targets to tight ends, and it is not close.
Tagovailoa has targeted a tight end on 10.3% of his throws over the last two seasons.
Aidan O’Connell is second to last at 14.0%. Joe Burrow is third to last with 15.9%.
The Dolphins need a third option in the passing game, though, and went out and got Smith, who is a great fit for their YAC heavy attack.
Round 12 Analysis:
- MarShawn Lloyd (me)
- Chuba Hubbard
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Kimani Vidal
- Justin Herbert
- Xavier Legette
- Dalton Schultz
- Ricky Pearsall
- Antonio Gibson
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Tyler Allgeier
- DeMario Douglas
All the offseason chatter suggests MarShawn Lloyd will have a role in the Packers offense.
Matt LaFleur has already said he is “a big believer that you need multiple running backs to carry the ball,” and we have seen that play out in the past in Green Bay.
Josh Jacobs is also coming off a dreadful season.
Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in the regular season, Jacobs only bested Kareem Hunt in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards. His 3.9% explosive run rate was by far the lowest rate of his career.
The only running back on the same list to have a lower rate of runs gaining a first down or touchdown was Dameon Pierce.
The only running backs with a lower rate of yards after contact per carry were Pierce, Hunt, and Jamaal Williams.
The most likely outcome is Jacobs as the lead back and Lloyd in a secondary role, but it is worth betting on Lloyd at this point in the draft, especially for teams that open receiver heavy.
I am less excited about fellow Packer Dontayvion Wicks because I just don’t know where the targets are going to come from even if Christian Watson suffers another injury.
Wicks was on the field for 70.2% of all dropbacks without Watson last season, but he was still third in targets behind Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs on those snaps.
Can he take on a bigger role? Absolutely, but that both takes projection and likely an injury to Watson.
Round 13 Analysis:
- Audric Estime
- Josh Palmer
- Cole Kmet
- Taysom Hill
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- J.K. Dobbins
- Ty Chandler
- Troy Franklin
- Jermaine Burton
- Jared Goff
- Tyrone Tracy (me)
Given what we expect from the Giants offense, it might not matter even if Tyrone Tracy ends up with a decent share of the backfield work, but it doesn’t hurt to bet on an athletic back with receiving ability.
The Broncos backs in this round are both interesting given the somewhat negative early camp news about Javonte Williams.
McLaughlin does not profile as a true lead back and might never get that kind of work, but Estime can certainly take on some short yardage and early down carries if the Broncos want to move on from Williams.
I am still a Williams believer because he was good before the injury and we have seen players take a couple of years to get back to full health, but it is not a given by any means Williams leads the Denver backfield this season.
I have a very tough time buying into J.K. Dobbins given the history – I selected Gus Edwards earlier in this draft – but it has to be said he has been very good when healthy thus far in his career.
Dobbins has averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his career with an explosive run on 15.4% of those carries.
Unfortunately, he has played nine games since 2020, but if any of that is left and he can earn the job in a Greg Roman offense, Dobbins could be a league-winning type of pick.
Round 14 Analysis:
- Quentin Johnston (me)
- Ben Sinnott
- Brandin Cooks
- Cade Otton
- Jahan Dotson
- Adam Thielen
- Marvin Mims
- Greg Dortch
- Elijah Mitchell
- Luke Musgrave
- Rashod Bateman
- Gabe Davis
There are a lot of picks that just make sense at this point in the draft.
I am not a Johnston fan at all. I was very low on him in Dynasty rookie drafts last spring.
But the difference between his price and that of Josh Palmer and especially Ladd McConkey suggests way too much certainty about how this passing game will shake out.
I would rank them Palmer, Johnston, and then McConkey, which makes the first two look like good values in the double-digit rounds.
Brandin Cooks has not been good the last two seasons, but he is still the No. 2 receiver in a Cowboys passing game that has been consistently good and is attached to a defense likely to take a step back.
Jahan Dotson had a rough second season, but he now has a much better situation at quarterback.
Gabe Davis has never been a target earner, but he fits really well into the deeper targets and especially red zone and end zone targets vacated by Calvin Ridley.
