Fantasy owners eagerly anticipate Week 1 all offseason. We might have some idea of what to expect, going off of the previous year, the preseason, and soundbites of coaches talking up their players. We spend so much time researching, drafting, and setting lineups based on projections.
But, when the games get underway, the backup running backs start stealing touchdowns and receivers are coming out of nowhere catching 80-yard bombs. Overreacting to Week 1 can hinder your chances at the playoffs, so don’t blow up your entire fantasy team just yet. But today we’re going to take a look at the surprising receiver breakout and running back vultures from Week 1 and figure out what we can take away.
Top 10 WRs (Nobody Saw Coming)
Week 1 Top 10 WRs (PPR)
- Sammy Watkins
- DeSean Jackson
- John Ross
- Marquise Brown
- T.Y. Hilton
- Keenan Allen
- Phillip Dorsett
- Larry Fitzgerald
- John Brown
- DJ Chark
Only T.Y. Hilton and Keenan Allen even touched consensus pre-draft, top-10 rankings. Most of these players weren’t even top 20. Less than half can be considered the WR1 on their team. You can likely find some or all of John Ross, Marquise Brown, Phillip Dorsett, John Brown, and DJ Chark on waivers in your season-long league. Be wary though, a one-week explosion is common from players on the waivers, but consistent production is harder to come by.
It can be helpful to examine a player’s role in their offense. Do they get a full allotment of snaps or are they part-time? For example, Marquise Brown definitely made the most of his opportunities, posting a stat line of 4/157/2. However, he did that on only 14 snaps, and against a terrible Dolphins team who may be tanking. But as a first-round pick, and one coming off injury, the Ravens could have been just easing him into the offense.
Watkins, Jackson, and John Brown are known to have big upside, but consistency has often been the issue. They are more likely to score four points or 30 than regularly land near their average. It is worth noting Tyreek Hill injured his shoulder and is expected to miss a few weeks. I do expect Watkins to be a stud as long as Hill is injured, and still startable when he returns as long as Watkins can stay 100% healthy.
I’ll nearly always start a wide receiver who expects to play a full game and receive 8+ targets over one who plays limited snaps. You can’t count on touchdowns, and they are hard to predict. Fantasy projections are mostly based on a player’s market-share of opportunity, and opportunities lead to fantasy points.
Warning: Vultures Circling
Vultures in fantasy are generally players not on a roster, or perhaps on the bench. These are your backup running backs and gadget players such as journeyman, Corderrelle Patterson, or a jack-of-all-trades like Saints QB/WR/RB/PR Taysom Hill.
Fantasy drafters often spend early-round picks on work-horse running backs to get a player they can count on for a safe floor of fantasy points every week. Few things can torpedo a fantasy day like when the stud RB works the ball down the field, only to have his hard-earned touchdown stolen by a vulture.
Week 1 vulture-victims include Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, and Saquon Barkley. In spite of worries about Gurley’s arthritic knee condition that drove down his average draft position (ADP), these three were going in the top-5 to top-10 range, generally within the first few rounds. Barkley was generally the first overall pick, with Chubb not far behind. Unlike with the wide receivers, I consider this far more meaningful.
Least concerning is Chubb, who had his touchdown stolen by Dontrell Hilliard, who had one reception for 14 yards and his only rush of four yards for the touchdown. Chubb had 17 rushes for 75 yards and three catches for 10 yards; 20 touches is solid volume. It bodes well that he was given 17 rush attempts in a game where Cleveland was playing from behind.
However, I would regard him as a safer play if he had gotten more than four targets in such a negative game-script. Hilliards two touches don’t seem threatening by comparison. Hopefully, using Hilliard in the red-zone was more of an aberration and not an omen of things to come from the Browns backfield.
Barkley ended the day with 15 touches for 139 all-purpose yards. His potential late-game touchdown was earned instead by Wayne Gallman, who totaled five touches. Not only did he score, but he caught three passes as well, cutting into Barkley’s elite receiving share. It seems the Giants fell far behind early and opted not to wear out their franchise running back, but Barkley did have a carry to start the drive that ended in the Gallman touchdown. If Gallman continues to eat into Barkley’s high-value targets and red-zone touches, even late in blowouts, that would lower Barkley’s expected output.
Gurley’s situation is the worst of all, but the signs were all there. Last year, Gurley went from the lead back to splitting carries with CJ Anderson, even in the playoffs. The Rams publicly acknowledged his degenerative knee condition and then traded two 2019 third-round picks to Tampa Bay to trade up in the third round and draft running back Darrell Henderson. Los Angeles also matched the Lions offer in order to keep Malcolm Brown for $3.3 million, a significant contract for a non-starting back.
In game one against Carolina, Gurley only had 14 rush attempts with just one reception. Although Brown had no receptions, he was given the red-zone plays and snagged two touchdowns. Rams head coach Sean McVay, sees long-term value in Gurley and there are still claims that Gurley is healthy. McVay may want to keep Gurley fresh for another potential Super Bowl run, but as long as the RB-by-committee approach is getting results for the Rams, Gurley’s best fantasy days are likely behind him.
