Each week we’ll be using the tools available at Sharp Football Stats to find the best stacks for DFS rosters.
After a chalk-filled Week 5, we’re hoping to uncover some hidden gems that can do some damage this week. Before we dive into the slate this week I wanted to highlight some of the team-level trends that we should be paying attention to now that every team in the league has played at least a quarter of their games.
All five of the most pass-heavy teams in the league are on this week’s slate. As we go through, we’ll take a look at that along with how the teams we’re targeting are lining up and where they’re most successful.
The Ravens have the highest implied team total and are the biggest favorites on the main slate. They’re also playing the Cincinnati Bengals, who have the second-highest unadjusted passing rate in the league.
On the Ravens’ side, we have Lamar Jackson ($6,900) coming off of a rough performance. You could argue it was by far his worst possible outcome, throwing three picks and just one touchdown. But, his rushing output saved him a bit as he put up 14.4 DK Points. Last week’s game marked the fourth straight week he accumulated 40+ yards on the ground. That’s a significant number because it’s the same amount of DK Points a pocket passer would accumulate with 100 passing yards.
Marquise Brown ($6,200) comes into the game with an ankle injury and a $500 price increase. He only managed to play 37 of 81 snaps on Sunday because of that injury he picked up, but he found the end zone. Brown was limited on Wednesday but if he practices in full by Friday and suits up on Sunday, he’s in play for GPPs. If not, Willie Snead ($5,500) would be an interesting stacking option coming off of a season-high five target game. That usage would only go up if Brown was unable to go against the Bengals. It’s an admittedly smaller sample, but Jackson has his highest passer rating when targeting Snead.
The Bengals run the most 11 Personnel of any team in the league. That means Tyler Boyd ($6,300) and Auden Tate ($4,500) will certainly be on the field. Last week, the duo missed just one snap when Boyd took a breather for a play. Boyd, somehow, went down $200 in salary, despite an impressive 30+ DK Point performance. Over the course of the season, 90% of Boyd’s targets have been in the short and intermediate range.
Baltimore’s defense seems to funnel targets to that part of the field, anyway, which could put Boyd in position for a big day. Nearly 80% of the attempts and four of the six passing touchdowns they’ve allowed have come from those shorter targets.
The Atlanta Falcons are a classic example of a bad NFL team that’s useful in fantasy. At this point, you need Matt Ryan ($6,400) exposure in your GPPs no matter what. He’s slipped below 20 DK Points in just one game, and that was a 19.7-point performance. Ryan has hit the 300-yard bonus in every game so far this year and has multiple TDs in four of five games. Atlanta gets a matchup in the Cardinals that doesn’t scare you whatsoever.
Arizona allows the fourth-highest TE target rate and hardly, if ever, is successful against the position. Through the first five weeks of the season, they’ve allowed 10 yards per attempt to tight ends, which ranks them 27th in the league.
Austin Hooper ($5,000) has just two fewer targets than Julio Jones ($8,000) so far this year. If we use the term loosely, Arizona’s “strength” has been against WRs where they’re 12th in Yards Per Attempt allowed to the position.
No matter how you slice it, Hooper is underpriced. The question is whether or not you want to stomach the ownership. He’ll likely be one of the top-two owned TEs on the slate and that certainly makes him a fade candidate for GPPs from a game theory perspective, but his ceiling might make it worth stomaching the chalk.
Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is far too cheap. He’s scored at least 16 DK Points in each of his starts and peaked last week with a 27 point performance. Minshew added some production on the ground, as well, rushing for 42 yards on seven carries. Through five weeks, he’s in some pretty good company when it comes to passer rating.
Leonard Fournette’s ($6,700) price still hasn’t caught up to the workload that he’s seeing. He’s hardly leaving the field and he is seeing work in the passing game, as well. Fournette has seen 30 targets on the year. He’s actually been unlucky in the TD department, as well. Fournette has only found the end zone once. With his current workload, you’d assume that he’s likely due for some positive regression at some point. Combining the two will give you a cheap, low-owned stack that has plenty of TD upside.