The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Divisional Round Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs Saturday afternoon game.

JacksonvilleRank@Kansas CityRank
22.25Implied Total30.75
21.112Points All./Gm21.716
65.328Opp. Plays/Gm64.323
5.79Off. Yards/Play6.41
5.415Def. Yards/Play5.19
41.96%13Opp. Rush %38.33%4
58.04%20Opp. Pass %61.67%29

Against the Spread

Chiefs: 6-10-1
Jaguars: 9-9

Chiefs ATS at Home: 2-5-1
Jaguars ATS Away: 4-5

Chiefs ATS as Favorite: 5-9-1
Jaguars ATS as Underdog: 8-5

Game Overview

The Divisional Round kicks off with a regular season rematch. These teams met back in Week 10 in Kansas City, with the Chiefs winning 27-17. Kansas City got out to a 20-0 lead in the second quarter and never looked back despite losing the turnover battle 0-to-3. The closest Jacksonville ever cut the lead to was 10 points. 

The Jaguars also had a unique approach with conflicting points of aggression. They opened the game up with an onside kick which they recovered but proceeded to punt from the Kansas City 39 and the Kansas City 45 on both of their opening possessions. If the Jaguars are going to pull off the upset here, they will need to keep their foot fully on the gas here with no hesitation.

That is because the more things changed this season, the more the results remained the same for the Chiefs as the league’s premier offense. Kansas City closed the regular season 14-3, leading the league in yards per play (6.4), points per drive (2.68), and touchdown rate per drive (33.0%), while finishing second in red zone touchdown rate (69.4%) and second in third down conversion rate (48.7%). They also had the lowest rate of sets of downs to even reach third down in the league at 37.5%.

Defensively, the Chiefs were the mixed bag we have seen from them in recent seasons. They rank ninth in yards allowed per play (5.1 yards) and 12th in third down conversion rate allowed (38.3%), but they are 19th in points allowed per drive (2.01) and 26th in touchdown rate allowed per drive (23.4%) due to allowing a 67.3% red zone touchdown conversion rate, which is 31st in the league. 

The Chiefs are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the Divisional Round under Patrick Mahomes, averaging 36.5 points per game.

The Jaguars dug themselves an early grave last week falling behind 0-27 to the Chargers but managed to pull off the third-largest playoff comeback for a 31-30 victory. They also became the first playoff team to pull out a win despite having five turnovers.

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