The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders Sunday afternoon game.

JacksonvilleRank@WashingtonRank
3Spread-3
20.25Implied Total23.25
14.932Points/Gm19.723
26.928Points All./Gm25.525
60.529Plays/Gm62.917
62.816Opp. Plays/Gm62.614
524Off. Yards/Play5.122
5.625Def. Yards/Play5.727
38.13%26Rush%44.58%8
61.87%7Pass%55.42%25
46.16%28Opp. Rush %40.38%11
53.84%5Opp. Pass %59.62%22
  • The Jaguars forced a turnover on 5.5% of opponent possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Jaguars led for just 11.9% of their offensive plays in 2021, the lowest rate in the league. The next closest team (Jets) was at 16.2%.
  • The Jaguars forced a three and out on just 25% of opponent possessions in 2021, the lowest rate in the league. 
  • Washington ranked 29th, forcing a three and out on 27.1% of opponent drives.
  • Washington allowed a league-high 6.8 yards per play on third downs in 2021.
  • Jacksonville ranked 31st, allowing 6.5 yards per play on third downs.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence: As a rookie, Lawrence ranked 35th out of 42 passers with 100 or more pass attempts in completion percentage (59.6%) while the only passers with lower yards per attempt than Lawrence’s 6.1 were Tyler Huntley, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Newton, and Mike Glennon. 

Lawrence ended the year with just 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The only games in which he threw multiple touchdowns were the season opener and final game of the year. 

Lawrence completed just 48.2% of his red zone passes, ahead of only Jared Goff and Daniel Jones among passers with 25 or more such attempts. His 12.5% touchdown rate was ahead of only Jones. 

Lawrence was 12th in the league in pass attempts inside of the 10-yard line but completed just 12 of those passes for six touchdowns. The league conversion rate in that area of the field was 36.9%. 

That is a laundry list of negatives but playing under arguably the most incompetent head coach in the modern era as a first-year player, Lawrence gets some benefit of the doubt given his pedigree that Year 2 can be much improved.

Under Doug Pederson, there is a low bar for improvement while Jacksonville has given Lawrence more talent than what he worked with in Year 1.

Washington was a team we targeted for streaming quarterbacks a year ago, allowing 17.3 passing points per game (31st), a 67.0% completion rate (25th), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (27th), and a 5.7% touchdown rate (30th). 

Lawrence takes a step of faith based on his performance as a rookie and a low team total as a road dog, but with the slate wiped clean and a matchup we targeted a year ago he has a positive outlook as an upside QB2.

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