The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Sunday afternoon game.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 19.75 | ||
| 23.5 | 11 | Points/Gm | 16.9 | 30 |
| 22.1 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 26 |
| 64.3 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 28 |
| 64.5 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 31 |
| 5.7 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 31 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 41.97% | 17 | Rush% | 40.05% | 21 |
| 58.03% | 16 | Pass% | 59.95% | 12 |
| 42.40% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 50.90% | 31 |
| 57.60% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 49.10% | 2 |
- Houston is the only remaining team in the league without a win at home (0-6-1) this season.
- Jacksonville is 0-3 against the spread as a favorite this season.
- Jacksonville is 0-3 against the Texans with Trevor Lawrence.
- Houston has covered in three straight games after covering four times prior.
- The Jaguars have scored on 44.7% of their drives since Week 9 (sixth in the league) after scoring on 35.7% prior (19th).
- 42.0% of the Houston drives have failed to gain a first down or touchdown prior, the highest rate in the league.
- 61.8% (21-of-34) of the touchdowns allowed by Houston have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Jacksonville leads the league in wide receiver dropped passes (24).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Even in sloppy conditions against one of the top defenses in the league, Lawrence found a way to get there last Thursday against the Jets. Lawrence did not throw a touchdown pass and threw for only 229 yards but used his legs for 51 yards and his fifth rushing touchdown to squeeze out a QB10 (18.3 points) scoring week. Lawrence has now been a QB1 scorer in eight of his past 10 games.
The Jaguars have a small amount of added incentive to win this week than the Titans do in the event that there is a tie next weekend since the Titans hold the tiebreaker based on a better division record if both teams end up with the same record. The Titans play on Thursday this week and are 10-point dogs. The Jaguars will have their outcome revealed prior to Sunday, but they should want to win this game despite next weekend being the marquee matchup to win the division and lock in a playoff spot. Jacksonville also lost to Houston straight up at home back in Week 5 and Lawrence has never beaten the Texans, so it would be surprising to take this game for completely granted.
Lawrence had one of his worst games of the season in that Week 5 matchup, completing 53.2% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.
Houston has only allowed three QB1 scoring weeks this season (to Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes) in large thanks to allowing just a 2.8% touchdown rate to opposing passers (third). That is impacted by allowing the league’s most rushing touchdowns, but Houston can get after the passer more than given credit for. The Texans are first in the NFL in pressure rate since Week 6 (42.1%) and eighth in sack rate (8.1%) over that span.
With as hot as Lawrence has been, I would not turn away to stream for him after getting over on the Ravens, Cowboys, and Jets, but locking in a spike week is also something I would be hesitant about.
