NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.

Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.

The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.

When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.

The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.


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Slate Breakdown

The Los Angeles Chargers are heading to New York to take on the Jets as 3.5-point favorites. The total is set at 40.

The Chargers will be without Joshua Palmer, leaving the rookie Quentin Johnston to step into an increased role. Fortunately, they will be getting Gerald Everett back after his one-week absence.

Los Angeles has an especially top-heavy offense, which leads to difficult decisions. Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler make up most of the Chargers’ offensive production, and they’re all over $11,000.

The Jets create a similar problem with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Most of the problem-solving for this slate revolves around which of the most expensive options to omit.

Injury Notes

Joshua Palmer – Knee – Out
Allen Lazard – Knee – Questionable

Los Angeles Chargers Offense

Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:

Austin Ekeler $12,000 –

Ekeler has returned to form after missing a few weeks with an injury. Last week, he handled 15 carries and 8 targets resulting in 123 total yards. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, but with so much value on the Jets’ side of the ball, it makes sense to try to capture the Chargers offense with Ekeler alone.

Justin Herbert $11,800 –

Herbert narrowly missed the 300-yard-bonus last week en route to a three-touchdown performance. This week, he faces a much tougher opponent against the Jets’ phenomenal secondary. Playing Herbert will commit a build towards favoring the Chargers, while the Jets have far better point-per-dollar options. It’s a viable strategy, but the median projections won’t be comparable.

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