NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.

Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.

The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.

When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.

The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.


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Slate Breakdown

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Minnesota to take on the Vikings as 7-point favorites. The total is set at 43.

Both teams will be without their star wide receivers, which will open viable punt options.

With Christian McCaffrey likely to play, it presents the challenge of fitting the 49ers’ top three plays in the same lineup.

Given how much salary a 49ers stack is going to use, Kirk Cousins will carry a lower roster percentage than normal. All of his pass catchers are relatively cheap, but it won’t be easy to stack them, even in 3-3.

Most builds will have to feature one punt and one mid-tier play from the Vikings.

Injury Notes

Christian McCaffrey – Oblique – Expected to play
Deebo Samuel – Shoulder – Out

San Francisco 49ers Offense

Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:

Brandon Aiyuk $10,800 –

Aiyuk was already handling a heavy workload, but with Samuel out he can be expected to see a target share north of 30% on a 90% snap share. He carries the only ceiling capable of rivaling McCaffrey and is $1,200 less.

Christian McCaffrey $12,000 –

At one point, McCaffrey was trending towards missing three games. Now he’s telling reporters he “feels great.” He does not appear to be in danger of missing the game, so the question will be his workload. His roster percentage may take a bit of a hit in tournaments where the field could choose to stack Kirk Cousins. Unless there is news that he will be limited, assume McCaffrey is handling his workhorse role.

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