Monday Night Football DFS Showdown Analysis: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

In Monday night’s Showdown, the Buffalo Bills visit the Tennessee Titans. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Bills are six-point favorites, which would normally have the field over rostering those players in 4-2 and 5-1 builds. The optimizer suggests otherwise for this one, likely because the Titans have some popular players and strong values leading to more balanced builds. It could also be because both offenses are so heavily concentrated in recent seasons; the Bills with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, and the Titans with Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill and, A.J. Brown.

Strategy

Allen should be the most rostered player, with 16-18% CPT and 71-79% total. Diggs and Henry are next with 12-14% CPT and 54-60% total. Because Henry doesn’t get many receptions, he will likely absorb most of his team’s fantasy production if he is the optimal CPT and cap their upside, so I would use a negative boost group. Since Tannehill hasn’t been as impressive as last year, Brown or Julio Jones could the optimal CPT without Tannehill getting there. Normally with a QB at CPT, I’d stack two or more pass-catchers, but Tannehill has rushing upside and is usually a low-volume passer, so he could be the optimal CPT stacked with just one receiver. Devin Singletary is going overlooked as the field shifts towards using Zach Moss at a much higher rate. Dawson Knox has been catching TDs at an unsustainable rate and is overpriced as a result. His ownership looks to be 20% or lower, allowing for some differentiation if you can stomach the price. If he ends up appearing in the optimal, it is likely at the expense of Diggs or Emmanual Sanders. Be sure to consider who is likely to underperform if a dart-throw option steals a TD, perhaps with the help of build groups and negative boosts, so that you can craft your lineups in a way that makes sense.