Best Conference Championship Quarterbacks: Fantasy Outlook for Every QB

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

Full AFC & NFC Championship Game Fantasy Football Previews

Matthew Stafford

Connecting on 20 of 42 passes on Sunday, Stafford is coming off a season-low 47.6% completion rate last week in Chicago.

Stafford has now completed fewer than 60% of his passes in five of his past six games.

He did not throw a touchdown, his first time throwing fewer than 2 touchdowns in a game since Week 6.

In a surprise move, the Rams went with a pass-heavy approach out of 11 personnel against the Bears.

They played 11 personnel on 89.6% of their snaps, their second-highest rate of the season and highest rate since Week 5.

Sean McVay is a coach who will zig, but the results weren't there last week.

The Rams had their lowest passing-play success rate of the season (34.8%), well below their 49.9% rate for the year.

They ran only seven plays out of the heavy 13 personnel, which has been their calling card most of the season.

They had only three games this season with fewer snaps out of 13 than last week.

It is now a guessing game as to how much of that 13 personnel we see this week.

When these teams met in the regular season, the Rams used 13 personnel on 36% of their snaps in Week 11 and 61.4% in Week 16.

In the first matchup, they only averaged 2.7 yards per play on those 13 personnel snaps, but then 5.9 yards per play in the rematch.

The Seahawks matched those 13 personnel snaps with nickel defense on 66.7% and 79.6% of those plays.

Both playoff games have looked different for Stafford compared to the regular season.

He has hardly used any play action.

Against Carolina, Stafford had a 16.7% play-action rate, his second-lowest of the season.

Against Chicago, he had a 19% play-action rate, which was his third-lowest rate of the season.

In the regular season, Stafford had a league-high 36.7% play-action rate.

In the two games against Seattle, Stafford had play-action rates of 42.9% and 30.6%.

4 of his 5 passing touchdowns against Seattle this year came using play action.

Because the Rams have gone against the grain both postseason weeks, we are flying a bit in the dark about how they will attack Seattle in the third meeting.

Stafford had a tale of two games against Seattle this season.

Seattle did hold Stafford to completion rates of 53.6% and 59.2%, but after holding him to a season-low 4.6 yards per pass attempt in Week 11, Stafford averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt in the Week 16 matchup.

He went from a season-low 130 yards passing in the first matchup to a season-high 457 yards in the second.

In Week 11, Stafford only had 2 completions on throws of 10 or more yards downfield.

In the Week 16 matchup, he had 10.

Regardless of how the Rams choose to approach the Seattle defense, the Seahawks have to find a way to get to Stafford.

Stafford was not sacked and was hit only 7 times on 79 dropbacks against Seattle.

When Seattle pressured Stafford in those games, he was 3 of 11 (27.3%) for 19 yards (1.7 Y/A) in the first matchup and then 9 of 21 (42.9%) for 137 yards (6.5 Y/A) in the second.

Without pressure, Stafford was 12 of 17 (70.6%) for 111 yards (6.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in Week 11 and then 20 of 28 (71.4%) for 320 yards (11.4 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the Week 16 matchup.

Seattle flipped their approach in both games.

After playing man coverage at a 39.3% rate in Week 11, they dropped to a 17.6% man coverage rate in Week 16.

In two games against Seattle’s man coverage this season, Stafford was 10 of 20 (50%) for 54 yards (2.7 Y/A).

In the second matchup, Stafford dissected the Seattle zone looks, going 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 435 yards (11.4 Y/A).

Seattle had a host of injuries during that second game, which could have been a primary reason they made so many changes.

Nick Emmanwori (82% of the snaps), Coby Bryant (61%), and Riq Woolen (46%) all left that game early, but the Rams were having success when those guys were on the field as well.

One thing we can likely bet on is that Stafford will be throwing it a lot.

In 9 career postseason games with the Rams, Stafford has reached 40 pass attempts five times (both games this postseason) and has thrown the ball at least 36 times in seven of those games.