Thanksgiving DFS is one of the most fun slates of the entire year.
Sure, you can get short slates every NFL Sunday playing afternoon only, but getting to watch all three games separately adds some excitement to the proceedings.
The playable bar is lower with only three games than it is for a normal main slate, and that means you can make a case for just about anyone with a pulse as a good play.
Still, it is important to identify a core group of plays to build around.
This is who I see as the best options on the board for this Thanksgiving slate.
Make sure to check out Rich Hribar's Worksheet previews for all three games
Quarterback
The reality is every quarterback on this slate is playable, and if you are creating double-digit lineups, you probably should have at least one featuring each quarterback.
That said, the top of the position leaves a lot to be desired either due to matchup, questionable volume, or some combination of both.
I am interested in stacking around the late game with both quarterbacks, but it is possible to still get pieces of the Packers and Dolphins without paying up for Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa.
Jared Goff has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this season, but he has attempted more than 30 passes twice all year. Could he spike this week? Sure, but it takes a good chunk of salary to make that bet.
So, with that in mind, I will be heaviest on two lower priced options.
Caleb Williams — $5,300 DK, $7,200 FD
I am not breaking any molds with Williams as my top quarterback. He should be the most popular or nearly the most popular at each site.
He is also not the slam dunk you might expect given the chalk — his popularity is more down to price and the relative weakness of quarterback plays on this slate.
While Williams has played much better following the offensive coordinator change, that improvement has been on the back of a quick-hitting, lower-upside passing attack that could struggle to find footing against what has been a very good Lions defense.
Detroit allows the fewest passing fantasy points per attempt, has not allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to a quarterback all season, and plays a ton of man coverage, which Williams struggles against.
Then why play Williams?
First, the script could push passing volume his way assuming the Lions can control the game as they usually do and the betting line projects.
Second, he could get there as a runner.
Williams has 103 rushing yards under the new offensive coordinator over the last two games after totaling 236 in his first 9 games.
He has a 10.8% scramble rate over the last two weeks compared to a 6.5% scramble rate before that.
The Lions allow the 10th-most rushing points per game to quarterbacks.
Cooper Rush — $4,800 DK, $6,900 FD
Hear me out.
Rush is both very cheap and likely to be on relatively few rosters on a short slate of games that might not feature a true standout quarterback performance.
Playing better in the last two games, Rush likely has earned some leash, alleviating the concerns about him getting benched during the game, and he has produced back-to-back solid fantasy lines (QB11, QB18).
Then there is the matchup.
The Giants have been better defending the pass when getting pressure, but Rush has been pressured on just 24.1% of his dropbacks so far this season.
The Cowboys overall rank fourth in pressure rate allowed, and Dak Prescott was pressured on just 25% of his dropbacks in the first meeting between these two teams.
When they do not get pressure, the Giants allow an 81.8% completion rate, the worst in the league, and 8.9 yards per attempt, 31st in the league.
When Rush was not pressured on Sunday in Washington, he connected on 21-of-29 passes for 7.7 yards per attempt with a touchdown.
Baker Mayfield did not have as big of a game as possible last week because the Giants simply did not push the Bucs to throw in the second half, and that could be a problem here for Rush.
But at his price, he has a low bar to clear to usability, especially if no other quarterback takes the top off the slate.
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Running Back
It is easy to make the case for a lot of running backs on this slate, and that means more of my lineups will feature three backs than usually is the case.
Both Josh Jacobs and De'Von Achane are great plays, and Achane's price could even keep his roster percentage lower, but I like some other options better given the price and how many rosters they are likely to make on Thursday.
Jahmyr Gibbs — $7,500 DK, $8,400 FD
Gibbs is obviously going to be popular, so it is not worth belaboring the issue too much here.
Still, it is worth pointing out just how good Gibbs has been this season.
He is averaging 6.4 yards per touch, which is third among running backs, and 1.2 PPR points per touch, which is second.
This matchup sets up great for Gibbs, especially if the Lions control the game as the betting markets expect.
The Bears allow 4.9 yards per carry to running backs, which is 28th in the league, and allow 140 yards from scrimmage to the position (22nd).
Over the last two weeks, Aaron Jones (22-106-1) and Josh Jacobs (18-76-1 plus 58 receiving yards) have roughed them up.
Finally, Gibbs has the added upside of a potentially limited David Montgomery.
I expect Montgomery to play — and will be using him both with Gibbs in lineups and as a stand alone play in his revenge game — but any decrease in workload thanks to his shoulder injury would be a boost for Gibbs.
Gibbs is my favorite play on the slate, and I will force him into nearly every lineup if not all of them.
Rico Dowdle — $5,500 DK, $6,100 FD
Because of his price, Dowdle is likely to be the most rostered running back on the Thanksgiving slate, and it is hard to argue with the logic.
With the Cowboys able to stay close last week, Dowdle handled 22 touches including 86.4% of the running back carries on his way to 98 yards from scrimmage.
Since Week 9, Dowdle has seen 75.7% of the running back carries, has a 10.4% target share, and has run a route on 46.1% of Dallas' dropbacks.
He did lose 2 goal-to-go touches to Ezekiel Elliott over that span, which is a concern, but he has 3 of his own.
The Cowboys are 3.5-point home favorites over the Giants, so the betting markets expect Dallas to at worst be in the game, giving Dowdle another chance at a big workload in a great matchup.
The Giants allow a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry to running backs, are 24th in receiving fantasy points allowed per game to the position, and are second to last in scrimmage yards per game allowed to backs.
Tyrone Tracy — $5.800 DK, $6,500 FD
Tracy takes a leap of faith thanks to his recent fumbling issues and the usage after his latest fumble last week, but it pays to be bold on these short slates.
After fumbling last week, Tracy had 4 touches while Devin Singletary had 3 and Eric Gray had 2. One of those was a touchdown for Singletary.
Tracy still handled 75% of the running back carries, which was higher than his two games before the bye, but it is fair to worry about his hold on the starting job moving forward.
The good news is those concerns will keep down his roster percentage in what is an excellent spot on paper.
Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs per game this season including 14 touchdowns, which is tied for the third most allowed.
Tracy is an explosive runner in a good matchup who has shown a fantasy ceiling already this season.
If he gets the majority of the work, he could put up a great score while being in relatively few lineups.
Wide Receiver
Receiver is where you can get interesting, and things can swing on short slates thanks to just one play.
My biggest leverage point on this slate will also come at receiver since I have decided to go 0% on Amon-Ra St. Brown and am currently terrified about that choice.
St. Brown should be extremely popular because of who he is and his obvious upside, but he has been mostly living on touchdowns this season thanks to the run-heavy nature of Detroit's offense.
Could he score again? Sure. He is second in the league among receivers in targets in goal-to-go situations.
Could the Lions be forced to throw more or just be hyper efficient, leading to a 12 for 160 line for St. Brown? Sure.
But I think a good but lackluster 6 for 65 day is more likely than St. Brown's likely roster percentage would suggest, especially given how good the Bears have been against No. 1 receivers this season, and that makes fading St. Brown a risk I am willing to take.
Jesus take the wheel.
CeeDee Lamb — $7,300 DK, $8,600 FD
Lamb is my primary pay-up target on the slate, but I do like him more at DraftKings given how he has been used since the transition to Cooper Rush.
Over the last three games, Lamb has averaged just 5.62 air yards per target and 5.3 yards per target.
He has not been able to consistently create after the catch on those short throws, and his yards per catch average is down to 7.5.
Lamb has 29.6% of the team's targets over that span, though, and has been targeted on 30.9% of his routes.
The Giants have allowed 9.7 yards per target (30th) and a league-high 10% touchdown rate to lead wideouts so far this season.
Lamb went for 98 yards and a touchdown on 7 catches against the Giants back in Week 4.
Jameson Williams — $6,100 DK, $5,700 FD
Williams is going to be extremely popular on FanDuel because he is frankly mispriced.
Williams comes with a layer of uncertainty given his usage profile, but that price will have me close to a 100% roster share for Williams over at FanDuel.
I also like him at price on DraftKings, though, and think he would have been a good play even without the misprice.
Since returning from injury, Williams has a 20.5% target share and is averaging 2.8 yards per route run.
That YPRR number is fifth among receivers with at least 50 routes since Week 10.
He is 25th among that same group in targets because the Lions do not throw a ton, which could be a problem in this game given the expected game script based on the betting line.
The Bears have also been better against the primary target in the passing game, freeing up secondary options, especially those who can win downfield.
The Bears have been crushed by Jordan Addison (8-162-1) and Christian Watson (4-150) over the last two games.
I am willing to eat the chalk on Williams, and if it does not hit, so be it.
Rome Odunze — $5,000 DK, $5,500 FD
Because rushing production is part of the appeal for Caleb Williams this week, it is not necessary to double stack him.
When single stacking Williams, Odunze will be my primary target.
With the Bears transitioning into more of a shorter passing team, Odunze is the only receiver consistently seeing work down the field.
But that does not mean he is living on little volume.
Odunze has just 3 fewer targets than Keenan Allen (my other target if double stacking) over the last two games and is well ahead of D.J. Moore in target share.
He also has seen 3 of the 4 throws into the end zone over that span, and he has played 42% of his snaps from the slot, giving him access to the better end of this matchup.
Odunze is getting higher-value targets than both Allen and Moore, and he is getting a lot of them comparatively in this offense.
At some point, that is going to hit in a big way.
Dontayvion Wicks — $4,200 DK, $5,400 FD
Wicks has burned enough people this year that I am not sure how popular he will be even at a depressed price, but I assume he will end up on a lot of rosters just to make the salary cap work.
Romeo Doubs is out, which should mean a lot more opportunity for Wicks.
On 241 dropbacks with at least one of Doubs, Jayden Reed, or Christian Waston off the field, Wicks has a 72% route participation rate with a target on 26.6% of his routes.
When he is on the field, he gets targeted.
The problem is he drops too many of those targets and has a 37% catch rate for the season.
The other problem is the Packers do not throw a ton.
Since Jordan Love returned to the lineup, the Packers are 27th in dropback rate, 31st in neutral dropback rate, and 6% under their expected pass rate.
Their lack of passing is not game script related. They just want to run the ball.
That could change here if the Miami offense can push them, though, and we know Wicks has multi-touchdown upside if those opportunities actually hit this week.
Tight End
Given his consistent usage over the last several games, Jonnu Smith is clearly the best tight end play on the slate, but that also means he should be pretty popular.
Sam LaPorta could also be popular given his name value and relatively low price, which makes it a bit easier to fade him, although like St. Brown above, the upside is obviously there for a big game.
Jonnu Smith — $4,300 DK, $6,300 FD
Unsurprisingly given his ability to create yards after the catch, Smith has been a feature of Miami's new short passing attack.
Smith has received at least 22% of Miami's targets in three of the last four games including 19 total targets over the last two weeks.
Since the bye week, he has run a route on 76.8% of Miami's dropbacks, and he is being targeted on 25.9% of those routes with 2.44 yards per route run.
1 of his 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks was a somewhat fluky 57-yard catch and run, but his other 2 scores came in goal-to-go situations.
The Packers have not faced a ton of tight end targets, but they have allowed 8.4 yards per target to the position, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
Smith is clearly the best play on the slate, but that also means he will be popular.
Luke Schoonmaker — $3,400 DK, $5,000 FD
With Jake Ferguson set to miss another game, Schoonmaker should once again be the primary pass catching option at tight end for the Cowboys.
Schoonmaker's usage last week was exactly what we expected.
He only ran a route on 58.8% of Dallas' dropbacks since he shares time when Ferguson is out, but he was targeted on 20% of those routes and found the end zone for the first time this year.
Schoonmaker has now been targeted on 23.8% of his routes without Ferguson on the field this season.
The Giants don't look like a great matchup because they have not faced a ton of tight end targets and have allowed just 1 touchdown to the position, but they have allowed 8.4 yards per target to tight ends this season.
Because Smith and LaPorta do not cost a ton more than Schoonmaker, I doubt he will be prohibitively popular, and he is arguably the second-best TE play on this slate without even considering the price.
