- As a result of the kickoff changes, offenses started possessions on average at their 29.7-yard line after a kickoff (touchback or return), the best rate of this millennium.
- Offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field for 62.6% of their snaps in 2024, the lowest rate since 2019.
- The NFL dropback rate was 59.5% last season, which was just the second time over the past decade it dipped below 60%.
- 35.5% of all yardage gained was via rushing, the second-highest rate since 2008.
Every offseason, I write articles about positional usage and scoring trends.
The goals for those are straightforward.
We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers that we can incorporate into the upcoming season, while also gauging the league's trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2025, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique under normal circumstances, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
NFL Offensive Production Since 2017:
| Category | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Points/Gm | 45.8 | 43.5 | 43.8 | 46.0 | 49.6 | 45.6 | 46.7 | 43.4 |
| Offensive TD | 1320 | 1224 | 1237 | 1345 | 1403 | 1244 | 1286 | 1121 |
| Team oTD/Gm | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.28 | 2.47 | 2.74 | 2.40 | 2.53 | 2.21 |
| Rush TD | 511 | 470 | 487 | 505 | 532 | 447 | 439 | 380 |
| Pass TD | 809 | 754 | 750 | 840 | 871 | 797 | 847 | 741 |
| Yards Gained Per TD | 139.1 | 147.4 | 149.0 | 138.9 | 131.0 | 143.2 | 140.2 | 152.6 |
| Scoring Drive % | 40.6% | 37.1% | 37.9% | 39.5% | 41.7% | 37.5% | 37.9% | 35.2% |
| TD Drive % | 23.7% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 23.9% | 26.4% | 22.8% | 23.4% | 19.9% |
| Red Zone Drive % | 31.9% | 28.6% | 29.9% | 31.9% | 32.9% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 26.8% |
| Red Zone TD % | 57.6% | 57.3% | 56.1% | 58.5% | 62.0% | 56.1% | 58.8% | 52.4% |
*All NFL Drives, excluding ones that ended in kneel-downs
Suppose you are wondering why the year 2017 is used arbitrarily here.
In that case, it was because that was the previous low point for the NFL collectively on offense, which provides a nice baseline comparison for the game's growth from that down season.
Since that year, we have navigated the impact of the pandemic, rule changes, and a current defensive era, though teams began to find answers in 2025.
We were not as efficient as we were during the COVID-19 season of 2020, but last year saw a marked improvement across the board, coming close to 2021 in total.
Offenses scored 96 more touchdowns last season than the year before.
Teams averaged 0.94 rushing touchdowns per game, the second most since the league expanded to 32 teams.
There were 55 more passing touchdowns than we had in 2023 and 59 more than there were in 2022.
Scoring efficiency was also markedly increased, in addition to the counting stats.
Offenses scored on 40.6% of all drives that did not end in kneel downs, the second-highest rate we have seen since 2010.
31.9% of possessions reached the red zone, tied for the second-best rate over that span.
With that spike, let’s examine a few areas that contributed to the improvement.
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The NFL Kickoff Change Worked
In the 2023 season, there were only 587 kickoffs returned, 424 fewer than there were in 2022.
73% of all kickoffs in 2023 were touchbacks, the highest rate in any season in the 2000s.
The NFL recognized the need for change and introduced “dynamic” kickoffs for the 2024 season.
Touchbacks dropped to 64.3%.
We ended up with 332 more kickoff returns last season than in 2023.
89.7% of all kickoff returns resulted in the ball being past the 20-yard line, the highest rate in the 2000s.
57 of those returns went for 40-plus yards, the most in a season since 2016.
There were 24 of those in 2023, the fewest in the 2000s.
The 27.6 yards per kickoff return were the highest of the 2000s.
As a result of the new changes, offenses started possessions on average at their 29.7-yard line after a kickoff (touchback or return), the best rate of this millennium.
One way to score more points is to have fewer yards to gain to get into scoring position.
This season, the NFL is taking a step further in tweaking the rules, extending touchbacks on kickoffs to the 35-yard line.
NFL Offenses Found Answers in 2024
There is a consistent pendulum of counterpunching between offense and defense.
The league as a whole is constantly adapting to the current meta.
When something works for a team, teams (well, the good ones) try to incorporate whatever worked into their plans.
Coming out of the 2020 season, NFL defenses gained an upper hand by playing more shell coverage, fielding more defensive backs, and playing lighter fronts.
The premise was to prevent big plays and force offenses to run more plays in hopes of making mistakes.
Defensive Personnel & Success Over Past 10 Years:
| Year | Man% | MOFO% | Blitz% | Nickel | Dime | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26.0% | 43.4% | 25.3% | 65.1% | 9.8% | 57.5% |
| 2023 | 24.0% | 43.8% | 26.0% | 67.2% | 9.8% | 59.2% |
| 2022 | 24.4% | 42.2% | 25.8% | 63.3% | 10.4% | 59.4% |
| 2021 | 27.9% | 40.8% | 25.3% | 60.8% | 13.4% | 57.5% |
| 2020 | 30.8% | 39.1% | 28.4% | 58.9% | 13.8% | 56.3% |
| 2019 | Not Available | Not Available | 27.6% | 55.4% | 14.8% | 57.1% |
| 2018 | Not Available | Not Available | 25.7% | 59.3% | 12.9% | 57.2% |
| 2017 | Not Available | Not Available | 27.3% | 51.4% | 12.2% | 58.0% |
| 2016 | Not Available | Not Available | 27.6% | 55.8% | 11.7% | 57.8% |
| 2015 | Not Available | Not Available | 29.1% | 50.2% | 11.9% | 59.0% |
*MOFO% = Middle of Field Open Pre Snap, via TruMedia
In 2024, offenses were able to get defenses to adjust their approach slightly.
After nickel defense had increased year over year for four straight seasons, this was the first time it dipped from the previous season since 2019.
Two-high safety snaps remained the second-highest rate in our sample, but may have finally stabilized, as 2024 was the first time that rate did not increase from the previous season.
Man coverage went up for the first time in the charted sample.
Teams were able to do this by running heavier sets as a counter.
Offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field for 62.6% of their snaps, the lowest rate since 2019.
They used 12 personnel (one RB and two TEs) on 22.1% of the offensive snaps, the highest rate in the 2000s.
There were 10,222 plays last season with at least two tight ends on the field, the first time that has cleared 10,000 since 2015.
As a result, that pulled down some of the base nickel defense and forced teams to play more defensive linemen.
Defensive Linemen Snap Rate Over Past 10 Years:
| Year | 2-Man | 3-Man | 4-Man |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20.5% | 31.1% | 44.7% |
| 2023 | 25.3% | 32.1% | 36.2% |
| 2022 | 23.7% | 29.6% | 40.8% |
| 2021 | 24.4% | 25.2% | 44.9% |
| 2020 | 17.1% | 23.4% | 53.8% |
| 2019 | 23.9% | 26.9% | 43.6% |
| 2018 | 20.2% | 25.1% | 50.5% |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 25.5% | 48.1% |
| 2016 | 27.4% | 25.7% | 41.3% |
| 2015 | 24.6% | 27.9% | 43.1% |
After seeing an all-time low of four-man lines in 2023, that rate spiked right back up last season.
All of these are more subtle changes than they are seismic, but you can see the wheels turning.
We will delve deeper into some of the downfield passing issues that offenses still faced last year, as things were not back to high flying, but rather the run game served as a counterpunch for offenses to open things up.
The NFL dropback rate was 59.5% last season, which was just the second time over the past decade it dipped below 60%.
35.5% of all yardage gained was via rushing, the second-highest rate since 2008.
NFL runners averaged 2.94 yards after contact per rush, the highest rate since that data has been tracked (since 2006).
With teams able to find more success with heavier sets, they were able to create more offensive leverage.
We will delve further into the downfield passing in tomorrow’s post on the state of quarterback play, but it was not all about running out from these sets.
The league increased its rate of passing plays under center from 28.7% to 30.3% last season, which enabled the play-action rate to rise from 23.1% to 24.8%.
Under center passing and the use of play action remain the most effective forms to take advantage of defenses that are forced to account for the run based on personnel.
Passing Splits Per Dropback Type Over Past 10 Years:
| Dropback | Y/A | PA% | TD% | Blitz/DB% | Motion% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun | 6.9 | 13.6% | 4.2% | 24.4% | 40.2% |
| Under Center | 8.1 | 81.8% | 5.5% | 35.7% | 60.5% |
The splits in efficiency when offenses can dictate the defense's strategy are staggering, especially when they can avoid clear passing situations.
Even when isolating 2024, passes from under resulted in 8.0 yards per attempt, a full yard better than out of shotgun (7.0).
Last year, 85.1% of dropbacks from under center used play action.
Those play-action passes from under center yielded 8.5 yards per attempt and a 5.6% touchdown rate.
One of the areas where defenses have had a lot of success in recent seasons is showing a single look pre snap and then changing things up post snap.
Well, offenses have shifted toward using more pre-snap movement of their own to pick up on those potential post-snap assignments and change match assignments in coverage.
As you noticed in the table above, motion rates climb when teams work from under center.
Plays utilizing pre-snap motion have been the most effective form of attack for teams.
| Year | Run Motion% | Yd/Play | Without | Dropback Motion % | Y/A | Without |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54.2% | 4.5 | 4.3 | 49.2% | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 53.0% | 4.3 | 4.1 | 45.2% | 7.3 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 54.9% | 4.6 | 4.2 | 44.4% | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| 2021 | 49.4% | 4.4 | 4.3 | 40.0% | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 2020 | 49.1% | 4.6 | 4.3 | 38.9% | 7.2 | 7.3 |
Applying NFL Offensive Changes to 2025
While it is fun (for some) to examine the NFL landscape from a descriptive standpoint, it is even more beneficial to find ways to utilize this information for fantasy football and potentially some future prop bets at the team and player levels.
I would never suggest making firm rules to dictate how we fully draft players or look for betting angles, but one thing we can do is target offenses built to attack and alter the way the league's defensive meta is being played.
The teams and players having the most success can run the football effectively, control offensive leverage over the defense, and set up ideal throwing conditions.
When looking for upside or selling yourself on a later-round pick or aggressively playing a player prop, ask yourself if the player is in one of these environments where the offense can consistently play with leverage.
The Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay coaching trees stand out in terms of philosophical approach, but play callers such as Ben Johnson, Todd Monken, Andy Reid, Joe Brady, Kliff Kingsbury, and Sean Payton also understand the assignment in pulling these levers in some form or another.
This is particularly appealing when targeting late-round quarterbacks, who, in turn, facilitated offenses that exceeded preseason expectations.
Notably, the most considerable late-round value last season came from players such as Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Bo Nix.
Of course, “just draft players on good teams” largely overlaps here.
Still, we could see larger success in 2025 compared to expectations for the Bears, Jaguars, Seahawks, Texans, Raiders, and Jets based on the hires made this offseason.