- Defensive success rate in 2023 was the highest it has been since the 2013 season and the third highest in the 2000s.
- Even though passing as a whole has been in a two-year funk, play-action passes remain a cheat code.
- The 7.1% sack rate last season was the highest in the NFL since the 1998 season.
Every offseason, I write a series of articles surrounding positional usage and scoring trends.
The goals for those are very simple: maintain a pulse for where the landscape of the league currently is and if any outliers stand out for us to incorporate into the upcoming season.
While we have already gone head-first into all the positional tiers, it is always good to take a look at the surface area for the league in general.
Every NFL season is unique under normal circumstances.
That said, the 2020 and 2021 seasons were especially unique given the impact that the pandemic had on the league.
The way the pandemic was initially handled in 2020 had a trickle-down impact on what ended up being the highest-scoring season in league history.
I wrote about that in the 2021 Sharp Football Preview book.
The scoring did regress in 2021 a bit, but that season was still significantly impacted by COVID-19. There were over 500 players placed into protocols in December alone.
Of the bottom 11 teams in-game absences due to COVID-19 in 2021, zero made the postseason.
Of the top-11 teams with the fewest absences due to COVID-19, eight ended up in the playoffs.
Coming out of those two seasons that were heavily influenced by outside conditions, NFL offenses have sagged dramatically.
NFL Offensive Production Since 2017:
| Category | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Points/Gm | 43.5 | 43.8 | 46.0 | 49.6 | 45.6 | 46.7 | 43.4 |
| Offensive TD | 1224 | 1237 | 1345 | 1403 | 1244 | 1286 | 1121 |
| Team oTD/Gm | 2.25 | 2.28 | 2.47 | 2.74 | 2.40 | 2.53 | 2.21 |
| Rush TD | 470 | 487 | 505 | 532 | 447 | 439 | 380 |
| Pass TD | 754 | 750 | 840 | 871 | 797 | 847 | 741 |
| Yards Gained Per TD | 147.4 | 149.0 | 138.9 | 131.0 | 143.2 | 140.2 | 152.6 |
| Scoring Drive % | 37.1% | 37.9% | 39.5% | 41.7% | 37.5% | 37.9% | 35.2% |
| TD Drive % | 21.3% | 21.9% | 23.9% | 26.4% | 22.8% | 23.4% | 19.9% |
| Red Zone Drive % | 28.6% | 29.9% | 31.9% | 32.9% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 26.8% |
| Red Zone TD % | 57.3% | 56.1% | 58.5% | 62.0% | 56.1% | 58.8% | 52.4% |
*All NFL Drives excluding ones that ended in kneel-downs
If you are wondering why there is an arbitrary use of 2017 here, that was the previous low point for the NFL collectively on offense.
That gives us a nice baseline comparison to how bad things have been over the previous two seasons.
We anticipated natural scoring regression coming out of the pandemic-influenced seasons, but the past two seasons have been among some of the worst offensive football in the modern era.
This was the third season since the NFL added a 17th game for each team, so the counting stats look even bleaker under that context.
The per-game production does not get any better.
You have to go back to 2008 to find a season that had fewer passing touchdowns per game than the past two years.
Outside of the 2017 season, you have to go back to 2007 to find a season in which games averaged fewer offensive touchdowns per game than last season.
Offensive points per play were their lowest since 2009.
Of course, we cannot blame regression and exiting the pandemic for everything.
There are a few interesting components here to talk about outside of just the league changing.
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NFL Defenses Have Adapted
We must credit how the league adapted defensively.
The NFL is cyclical.
There is a consistent pendulum of counterpunching between offense and defense.
And the league as a whole is constantly copying the current meta.
We have been trending in a specific direction regarding the way defenses are attempting to handle high-powered offenses, and that continued in 2023.
Defensive Personnel & Success Over the Past 10 Years:
| Year | Man% | MOFO% | Blitz% | Nickel | Dime | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.0% | 43.8% | 26.0% | 67.2% | 9.8% | 59.2% |
| 2022 | 24.4% | 42.2% | 25.8% | 63.3% | 10.4% | 58.1% |
| 2021 | 27.9% | 40.8% | 25.3% | 60.8% | 13.4% | 57.5% |
| 2020 | 30.8% | 39.1% | 28.4% | 58.9% | 13.8% | 56.3% |
| 2019 | x | x | 27.6% | 55.4% | 14.8% | 57.1% |
| 2018 | x | x | 25.7% | 59.3% | 12.9% | 57.2% |
| 2017 | x | x | 27.3% | 51.4% | 12.2% | 58.0% |
| 2016 | x | x | 27.6% | 55.8% | 11.7% | 57.8% |
| 2015 | x | x | 29.1% | 50.2% | 11.9% | 59.0% |
| 2014 | x | x | 28.8% | 46.6% | 12.4% | 58.7% |
*Middle of Field Open Pre-Snap (MOFO) and Man not available before 2020
Defensive success rate in 2023 was the highest it has been since the 2013 season and the third highest in the 2000s.
On just passing plays alone, the 57.6% defensive success rate matched the highest rate in the 2000s (also 2013).
To slow down offenses, teams have reverted to dedicating more personnel to coverage and playing less aggressively.
Nickel (five defensive backs) has been trending toward the base defense for the NFL for a while as you can see above.
Defenses had five defensive backs on the field for a record 67.2% of snaps last season.
Not only was that a record high, but it was one of the largest year-over-year spikes in the table.
Not only are more defensive backs on the field now, but they are playing coverage firsthand when on the field.
TruMedia only has four seasons worth of stat tracking on man versus zone coverage, but you can also clearly see the shift in reduction of man coverage over that span.
Teams are playing more zone coverage and, in turn, leaving the middle of the field open pre-snap at an increasing rate.
This has nuked the big play, forcing opposing offenses to sustain drives in hopes of creating a mistake along the way.
In 2023, there were just 9.1 passing plays per game that gained 10 or more yards, the fewest in a season since 2008.
In all of the 2000s, that 2008 season is the only year across those 24 seasons that had a lower rate of passing touchdowns per game that gained 10 or more yards than the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Going further, the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons have three of the four lowest rates of passing touchdowns that gained 20 or more yards per game.
From a top-down perspective, here is the impact of the shift in defensive approach when looking at the league’s passing performance over that span.
NFL Passing Performance Over the Past 10 Years:
| Year | DropBack% | EPA/DB | Success% | aDOT | At Behind% | Deep% | Sack% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 60.3% | -0.01 | 39.9% | 7.70 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 7.1% |
| 2022 | 60.1% | 0.01 | 41.1% | 7.72 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
| 2021 | 61.3% | 0.03 | 41.5% | 7.76 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| 2020 | 61.5% | 0.03 | 42.2% | 7.88 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| 2019 | 62.0% | 0.04 | 41.7% | 8.18 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
| 2018 | 62.0% | 0.06 | 42.0% | 8.11 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| 2017 | 60.6% | 0.01 | 40.7% | 8.30 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 6.4% |
| 2016 | 62.0% | 0.05 | 41.3% | 8.32 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% |
| 2015 | 62.0% | 0.05 | 40.4% | 8.36 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.1% |
| 2014 | 61.1% | 0.08 | 40.3% | 8.32 | 19.7% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
In 2023, passing plays had their lowest success rate since the 2013 season, the second-lowest rate of the 2000s.
Last season was also the first time in the 21st century that passing plays had negative expected points per dropback.
The next closest year was in 2022.
Then you have to go all of the way back to 2003 to find a season with a lower EPA per dropback.
With defenses predicated on coverage and preventing big plays, you can see the impact that has had on the average depth of target (aDOT) across the league, which has gone down from the year prior in four consecutive seasons.
Offenses threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage at the highest rate last season since the data was tracked per Pro Football Focus in 2006.
There were just 161 touchdown passes on throws of 20 or more yards in the air last season, matching 2022 as the fewest since the 2008 season.
Use of Shotgun & Play Action
| Year | Shotgun% | Play Action % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 71.3% | 23.1% |
| 2022 | 67.0% | 25.6% |
| 2021 | 65.4% | 26.0% |
| 2020 | 65.2% | 25.7% |
Some of the recent struggles could stem from a dip in the use of play-action, which coincides with a rise in plays being run out of the shotgun, a rate that has gone up from the previous season in each of the past four seasons.
Even though passing as a whole has been in a two-year funk, play-action passes remain a cheat code.
Even with depressed passing numbers as a league, the NFL has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt with the use of play action compared to 6.6 yards per pass attempt without.
That rate spikes to 8.5 yards per pass attempt when teams have used play action against zone coverages.
Passes out of shotguns have only produced 6.8 yards per pass attempt over these down years but passes from under center have averaged 8.0 yards per attempt since you can incorporate more play action on those snaps.
Snaps out of the shotgun have only utilized play action for 13.6% of those pass attempts while the rate of play action climbs to a whopping 83.0% on pass attempts starting under center.
There is something to be said for the diversity that playing under center allows an offense to operate and that offensive flexibility and freedom can inherently create offensive leverage on its own.
We have good NFL offenses that are using a ton of shotgun, but out of the top-10 offenses in yards per play last season, only three of them were higher than 15th in the rate of shotgun snaps.
The 49ers, Lions, and Rams were first, third, and fifth respectively in yards per play last season, but ranked 28th, 31st, and 26th in the rate of shotgun snaps.
The Impact of Sacks on NFL Offensive Production
Another large part of why offenses and passing games were so bleak in performance last season was the high volume of sacks taken across the league, despite defenses continuing to play more coverage.
I have been highlighting this for a few seasons and we have seen coverage picked up on it, but here is the impact that taking a sack has on your offensive success per possession.
Offensive Rates per Drive With and Without a Sack Taken:
| Category | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pts Per Drive W/Sack | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Without | 2.11 | 2.15 | 2.29 | 2.45 | 2.19 | 2.24 |
| % of Score/Drive W/Sack | 22.8% | 21.8% | 21.9% | 23.7% | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| Without | 38.9% | 39.9% | 41.7% | 43.6% | 39.3% | 40.6% |
| % of TD/Drive W/Sack | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% |
| Without | 23.7% | 24.2% | 26.5% | 29.0% | 25.6% | 25.8% |
| % Punt/Drive W/Sack | 51.2% | 53.5% | 51.5% | 50.4% | 52.8% | 51.9% |
| Without | 33.9% | 33.1% | 31.5% | 30.4% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
The only thing worse on an offensive possession than a turnover is taking sacks.
Regardless of the down in which the sack was taken, the drop-off in offensive performance per drive when a team takes a sack versus when they do is seismic.
Over the past five years, avoiding a sack more than doubles the average points per drive and more than triples the percentage of drives that end in a touchdown.
The 7.1% sack rate last season was the highest in the NFL since the 1998 season.
This is the first time that the league has had back-to-back seasons with a 7.0% sack rate since 1997-1998.
What is even more wild is that quarterbacks were sacked 6.7% of the time without the defense blitzing, by far the highest rate in the 2000s.
The previous high was 6.3% in 2019.
20.5% of pressures last season resulted in a sack, the highest rate since the data has been available.
This is a large part of what makes Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs so continuously great.
Since Mahomes entered the league in 2017, he has taken a sack on just 12.2% of his pressured dropbacks, the lowest rate among all qualified passers.
The league rate over that span is 19.6%.
Quarterbacks are holding onto the football more than ever.
Time to Throw & Time to Sack Over Past 10 Years:
| Year | Time to Throw | Time to Sack | Sack% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.82 | 3.50 | 7.1% |
| 2022 | 2.80 | 3.54 | 6.7% |
| 2021 | 2.76 | 3.49 | 6.2% |
| 2020 | 2.73 | 3.49 | 5.9% |
| 2019 | 2.78 | 3.51 | 6.7% |
| 2018 | 2.72 | 3.31 | 6.8% |
| 2017 | 2.71 | 3.42 | 6.4% |
| 2016 | 2.66 | 3.46 | 5.8% |
| 2015 | 2.67 | 3.45 | 6.1% |
| 2014 | 2.70 | 3.45 | 6.3% |
The average time to throw continues to trend upward.
Last season was the longest time to throw across the league since the stat has been recorded starting in 2011.
Quarterbacks did improve their time to taking a sack last season compared to 2022, but that was still the second-highest rate over the past 10 seasons.
There are better ball-knowers than me capable of dissecting if this is a problem stemming from the collegiate game into the pro game, but it is wild how many sacks are being taken despite the continued reduction of sending extra pass rushers.
I don't want to take a ton away from defenses, either.
I believe we are in the greatest era for physical specimens that have ever rushed the passer, which plays a part in all of this.
I believe if you asked the public “Which is better right now in the NFL, offensive line play or defensive line play?” you would get an overwhelming majority siding with the defense right now.
Outside of the influx of athletic pass rushers, part of the combined issues from all of the above is the sheer number of players we are now getting per season making starts at the quarterback position.
More Quarterback Injuries
| Year | QB Starts | Per/Week |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 66 | 3.67 |
| 2022 | 68 | 3.78 |
| 2021 | 62 | 3.44 |
| 2020 | 58 | 3.41 |
| 2019 | 57 | 3.35 |
| 2018 | 54 | 3.18 |
| 2017 | 56 | 3.29 |
| 2016 | 54 | 3.18 |
| 2015 | 53 | 3.12 |
| 2014 | 54 | 3.18 |
Since adding that extra week to the season, we have three largest totals of quarterbacks making at least one start in an NFL season, but it was already a number on the rise in 2019 and 2020 before that expansion of the season.
Adding a 17th game means more opportunities for more players to play through various scenarios including injuries and performance.
We already have a finite list of capable human beings on the planet able to play the quarterback position at a high level, so dipping in the reserves is not helping things at the position.
Offensive Line Injuries
While we have uncovered that sacks are more of a quarterback stat than an offensive line one (lines allow pressures, quarterbacks take sacks), it does need to be said that the league also struggled up front last year.
Here is every team’s most frequently used offensive line combination (LT-LG-C-RG-RT) last season and the percentage of team snaps that unit played.
Offensive Line Continuity in 2023:
| Team | Most Frequent OL Combo | Play% |
|---|---|---|
| CIN | Brown|Volson|Karras|Cappa|Williams | 96.09% |
| BUF | Dawkins|McGovern|Morse|Torrence|Brown | 95.07% |
| DEN | Bolles|Powers|Cushenberry|Meinerz|McGlinchey | 83.17% |
| ATL | Matthews|Bergeron|Dalman|Lindstrom|McGary | 67.31% |
| TB | Wirfs|Stinnie|Hainsey|Mauch|Goedeke | 64.37% |
| KC | Smith|Thuney|Humphrey|Smith|Taylor | 63.98% |
| LAC | Slater|Johnson|Clapp|Salyer|Pipkins | 60.22% |
| PIT | Moore|Seumalo|Cole|Daniels|Jones | 56.07% |
| LV | Miller|Parham|James|Van Roten|Eluemunor | 53.17% |
| IND | Raimann|Nelson|Kelly|Fries|Freeland | 48.63% |
| DAL | Smith|Smith|Biadasz|Martin|Steele | 46.79% |
| GB | Walker|Jenkins|Myers|Runyan|Tom | 46.29% |
| DET | Decker|Jackson|Ragnow|Glasgow|Sewell | 41.86% |
| PHI | Mailata|Dickerson|Kelce|Jurgens|Johnson | 41.28% |
| LAR | Jackson|Avila|Shelton|Dotson|Havenstein | 40.77% |
| WAS | Leno|Paul|Larsen|Cosmi|Wylie | 40.19% |
| SF | Williams|Banks|Brendel|Burford|McKivitz | 38.77% |
| ARI | Humphries|Wilkinson|Froholdt|Hernandez|Johnson | 37.64% |
| BAL | Stanley|Simpson|Linderbaum|Zeitler|Moses | 35.78% |
| NYG | Thomas|Pugh|Schmitz|Bredeson|Phillips | 34.72% |
| MIN | Darrisaw|Risner|Bradbury|Ingram|O'Neill | 34.27% |
| CLE | Wills|Bitonio|Pocic|Teller|Jones | 30.83% |
| NO | Peat|Hurst|McCoy|Ruiz|Ramczyk | 25.87% |
| JAX | Robinson|Shatley|Fortner|Scherff|Harrison | 23.34% |
| CHI | Jones|Jenkins|Patrick|Davis|Wright | 22.42% |
| SEA | Cross|Lewis|Brown|Bradford|Lucas | 21.41% |
| TEN | Duncan|Skoronski|Brewer|Brunskill|Radunz | 21.16% |
| HOU | Tunsil|Howard|Deiter|Mason|Fant | 20.22% |
| NE | McDermott|Strange|Andrews|Sow|Onwenu | 19.80% |
| CAR | Ekwonu|Throckmorton|Bozeman|Corbett|Moton | 17.24% |
| MIA | Lamm|Wynn|Williams|Hunt|Jackson | 16.90% |
| NYJ | Becton|Tomlinson|McGovern|Tippmann|Vera-Tucker | 13.58% |
Keep in mind that this is not even the best possible offensive line that each team COULD play, but it was the one that they HAD to play the most.
Just nine NFL teams had their most frequently used offensive line combination on the field in unison together for 50% or more of their snaps.
Nine other teams were below 25%.
Just two of those teams made the postseason, credit to Houston and Miami.
I went back and checked this out for the previous two seasons as well since the NFL expanded the season.
11 teams had their top combination of linemen on the field together for 50% or more of the snaps in 2022 and just five teams in 2021.
Establish The Run?
You may have gotten to this point and said, “If teams are playing coverage, just run the damn football.”
As an initial counter, teams have started to run the football more again.
Offenses dropped back to pass on 60.1% of snaps in 2022, the lowest rate in a season since 2011 (59.9%).
Last season it went up a tick, but it was still the lowest rate since the 2011 season.
There is a cause and effect to everything in the league.
To defend the pass better, NFL defenses have sacrificed numbers in the run game.
Defensive Fronts Over Past 10 Years:
| Year | 2-Man | 3-Man | 4-Man |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25.3% | 32.1% | 36.2% |
| 2022 | 23.7% | 29.6% | 40.8% |
| 2021 | 24.4% | 25.2% | 44.9% |
| 2020 | 17.1% | 23.4% | 53.8% |
| 2019 | 23.9% | 26.9% | 43.6% |
| 2018 | 20.2% | 25.1% | 50.5% |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 25.5% | 48.1% |
| 2016 | 27.4% | 25.7% | 41.3% |
| 2015 | 24.6% | 27.9% | 43.1% |
| 2014 | 21.4% | 27.5% | 45.4% |
With so much emphasis placed on defending the pass, defenses played their lowest rate of 4-man fronts by far over the past several seasons, something that has dropped significantly over the past three seasons.
As a byproduct, 3-man fronts were at a high, which also coincided with the increased rate at which teams could run with a numbers advantage.
NFL Rushing Performance Over Past 10 Years:
| Year | Rush% | Success% | EPA/Rush | Light Box% | Heavy Box% | YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 39.7% | 37.9% | -0.06 | 32.2% | 33.5% | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 39.9% | 39.7% | -0.03 | 29.1% | 36.9% | 4.5 |
| 2021 | 38.7% | 39.3% | -0.04 | 28.7% | 39.3% | 4.3 |
| 2020 | 38.5% | 39.6% | -0.07 | 26.7% | 40.7% | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 38.0% | 39.3% | -0.06 | 24.8% | 42.5% | 4.3 |
| 2018 | 38.0% | 38.2% | -0.08 | 26.9% | 39.3% | 4.4 |
| 2017 | 39.4% | 38.2% | -0.07 | 24.4% | 44.5% | 4.1 |
| 2016 | 38.0% | 37.9% | -0.08 | 29.0% | 39.3% | 4.2 |
| 2015 | 38.0% | 35.7% | -0.08 | 28.9% | 38.6% | 4.1 |
| 2014 | 38.9% | 36.1% | -0.07 | 28.8% | 39.8% | 4.2 |
Whereas NFL offenses combated defenses by successfully running the ball in 2022 at their best rates in the 2000s, last season was a step back.
Despite having a higher rate of lighter fronts and a reduction of heavy boxes once again, the league could not replicate their success on the ground from the previous season.
The run game had the lowest success rate in a season since 2016.
Running back runs only had a 37.3% success rate against light boxes, their lowest rate in a season since 2013.
Just 9.7% of all running back runs last season resulted in a gain of 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the 2000s.
My earlier questions on the potential of offensive line health and performance arise here.
Last season, NFL runs averaged only 1.40 yards before contact, the lowest rate since the metric was tracked in 2016.
Even worse, running back runs averaged only 1.25 yards before contact per carry, also the lowest over that span.
Against light boxes, that rate was 1.73 yards, also the lowest.
The base rate for yards before contact on running back runs 2006-2023 against light boxes is 2.07 yards before contact.
When Will NFL Offenses Recover?
If defenses were doing the best they have against the pass and STILL having great success defending the run, what would stop them from repeating this approach?
There is little reason to see it change in 2024.
I do not know the answers to solving when we are getting a “dead-cat bounce” for offenses.
We are at the mercy of health and performance for quarterbacks and offensive lines, but there are a few things we can target to hopefully exploit the current defensive meta paired with a few glimpses of light at the end of the tunnel in league rules this season.
The first point is in our control.
One thing we can do is target offenses built to attack and alter how the league defensive meta is being played.
I have brought this up in a few spots, but we can target offenses specifically from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay offensive coaching tree.
With Klint Kubiak, Brian Callahan, and Zac Robinson hired this offseason, we now have 11 teams that have a head coach or offensive coordinator from that coaching tree.
That list is the 49ers, Rams, Dolphins, Bengals, Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Texans, Titans and Bears.
The only members of that coaching tree to below league average in running back success rate on runs last season were the Bengals and Texans.
The Texans were part of those teams ravaged on the offensive front last season if looking for a reason to buy a spike in 2024.
Who were the top three teams last season in running back run success rate?
The Dolphins, 49ers, and Rams.
We highlighted how defenses were leaving the middle of the field open more than ever.
Six of the top-10 teams in passing yards between the hashes a year ago came from this coaching tree.
Seven of the top 10 teams in passing yards between the numbers are from that tree.
I would never suggest that you are so rigid that you only target teams from a specific coaching tree as your lone plan of attack when drafting fantasy players, but these are systems designed to get defenses to adjust their play as opposed to the league rates.
A few other offenses that are doing the right things in terms of running and passing over the middle of the field are the Lions, Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, and Colts.
Added to the previous grouping of 11 teams, that is half of the league we can target with some knowledge that our players are at least going to be put into favorable offensive situations to counterpunch.
We also have a few rule changes that can potentially nurture an increase in scoring.
The first is the kickoff rules.
You can find a full breakdown of the specific rule changes for kickoffs here, but this was a necessary change since the NFL has seen an abnormal rise in touchback rate, which has impacted offenses paired with all of the things we have covered thus far.
NFL Touchback Rate and Scoring Rate on Touchbacks:
| Year | Touchback% | Score% |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 73.1% | -3.5% |
| 2022 | 59.8% | -1.7% |
| 2021 | 57.8% | -4.4% |
| 2020 | 61.3% | -5.0% |
| 2019 | 61.1% | -2.3% |
| 2018 | 60.9% | -2.9% |
Last season, a whopping 73% of the league kickoffs were touchbacks.
When the league first altered the kickoff rules in 2018, that rate was just below 61%.
In 2023, teams scored points on 33.6% of their drives that started with a touchback, 3.5% below the base scoring rate per possession in the NFL.
Starting a drive with a touchback has never been advantageous for an offense.
You don’t need me to tell you that you have less success scoring points the further you have to move the football.
It remains to be seen if teams will still just be able to kick the ball out of the end zone to force a high rate of touchbacks since the spot of the kick is not moving, but returners catching the ball in play have added incentive to attempt returns.
The one final thing I will mention briefly is the new enforcement expected to reduce hip-drop tackles.
Our Joe Gibbs already penned a detailed analysis of how offenses can find more yardage should the league call the number of hip-drop penalties they claim were infractions last season should that rate remain static.
This was a longer walkthrough on the league as a whole, but over the remainder of the week, we are going to be going into the trends of each position specifically in hopes of uncovering a few more micro-edges to help us out along the way as gamers.
