Packers vs Vikings Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Monday Night Football game on December 23, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.

Green Bay	Rank	@	Minnesota	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
20.5		Implied Total	25
23.6	14	Points/Gm	27	5
20.2	9	Points All./Gm	18.5	6
61.4	26	Plays/Gm	62.1	20
63.5	16	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.5	20
40.6%	16	Rush%	49.9%	2
59.4%	17	Pass%	50.1%	31
41.6%	18	Opp. Rush %	37.4%	5
58.4%	15	Opp. Pass %	62.6%	28

Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are a league-best 32-15-1 (68.1%) against the spread at home (4-1 versus Green Bay) and a league-best 24-12-1 (66.7%) against the spread as a home favorite over that span.
Minnesota is the only remaining undefeated team at home this season (6-0).
Minnesota has scored 66.1% of the points scored in their home games this season, trailing only New England (66.9%).
Teams quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins have yet to win a game on Monday night (0-8) with the Vikings going 0-2 in that sample.
The Packers have converted 68.9% of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns (second) while the Vikings rank sixth (66.0%).
Opposing teams have converted 47.5% of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns against the Vikings (fourth-lowest) while the Packers rank fifth (48.9%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

Davante Adams: since returning in Week 9, Adams is second in the league in target share (32%) having double-digit targets in five of those six games. The high-yardage hasn’t been there (64 or fewer yards in four of those six games), but Adams has started to find the end zone, catching a touchdown in three of his past four games. Minnesota is allowing 14.0 receptions (29th) and 171.9 yards (24th) to opposing wideouts.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

Aaron Jones: Jones has out-touched Jamaal Williams 35-16 the past two weeks and his 17 touchdowns on the season trail only Christian McCaffrey (18). One hang up is that Jones has one or fewer receptions in four of their past six games. The Vikings are ninth in rushing points allowed per game (11.1) to backfields and have allowed just five rushing touchdowns, but Jones has had games of 140 total yards and a touchdown and 93 yards and a touchdown in his past two games versus Minnesota.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has been a WR2 or better in just one of his past six games, but even with Adam Thielen returning to the lineup, Diggs was the higher scorer, catching 4-of-6 targets for 76 yards. Diggs has a 40-yard reception in three of his past four games and has scored a touchdown in six straight games versus the Packers.
Adam Thielen: Thielen returned to the lineup last week for the first time since Week 9. He played just 51% of the snaps and had three targets (3-27) while Diggs played 71% of the snaps and had six targets, but with the game in control for the Vikings, his usage cap may not be that low here. Thielen has given the Packers trouble for his career going back to his 12-202-2 game against them in 2016, but in three games with Cousins as his quarterback against Green Bay, Thielen has 5-750, 8-125-1, and 12-131-1. The Packers are fourth in the league in receptions allowed to opposing wideouts (10.4 per game) but are 27th in yards per target (9.2) while allowing a pair of Chicago teammates to each go over 100 yards a week ago.
Vikings RB: The position everyone is waiting on this week for waiver wires is a Monday night game. Zimmer is playing things positive with Dalvin Cook, but it would be a surprise to see him active this week after leaving his second game in three weeks with a shoulder injury. Alexander Mattison also missed Week 15 with an ankle injury while his status is unknown for this week. Mike Boone stepped in for Cook last week and had 17.6 fantasy points on 21 snaps. Ameer Abdullah could be involved in the passing game as he ran six routes to just four for Boone after Cook left the game Sunday, but in the event of a potential time share, Boone out-touched Abdullah 13-5 while getting the goal line opportunities. Green Bay has allowed just one 100-yard rusher over their past seven games, but are still allowing 146 yards from scrimmage per game to the position over that span with seven touchdowns.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has finished as a top-12 scoring quarterback in just one his past six full games played against the Vikings, throwing more than two touchdown passes in just one of those games. In Minnesota, he hasn’t thrown for more than 213 yards since 2013. The Vikings have had better defenses than this current version, but Rodgers has also been a better quarterback than he currently is for fantasy. Even for as sketchy as the Vikings defense has seemed, they’ve still only allowed three QB1 scoring weeks on the season while Rodgers has been higher than QB20 in one of his past six games.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been the QB15, QB21, and QB26 the past three weeks after posting a QB1 week in six of his previous seven games. Cousins was the QB28 (8.9 points) when these teams played in Week 2 and the Packers have allowed just four QB1 scoring weeks on the season with just one inside of the top-10.

More Week 16 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: