The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon game.
| New England | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 26.6 | 7 | Points/Gm | 20.1 | 22 |
| 19.4 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 21.9 | 15 |
| 61.8 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 11 |
| 60.7 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 18 |
| 5.7 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 29 |
| 5.3 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 12 |
| 45.73% | 7 | Rush% | 40.29% | 23 |
| 54.27% | 26 | Pass% | 59.71% | 10 |
| 45.15% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 39.32% | 8 |
| 54.85% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 60.68% | 25 |
- The Dolphins have won (and covered) in three straight games versus the Patriots, their longest winning streak in the rivalry since winning five straight versus New England over the 1999-2001 seasons.
- The Patriots scored on 50.9% of their drives in 2021, trailing only the Chiefs (51.6%).
- Just 57.1% of the New England scoring plays were touchdowns, which was 22nd in the league.
- The Patriots forced a turnover on 17.9% of opponent possessions, the highest rate in 2021.
- The Patriots ranked ninth in success rate targeting their wide receivers (53%) and 11th in yards per target (8.2 yards) to the position.
- New England targeted the position just 56% of the time, which ranked 26th in the league.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa saw improvement across the board from his rookie numbers, but still was limited from a fantasy perspective, closing as the QB23 in points per game.
Miami uprooted nearly everything in the offense compared to 2021, hiring Mike McDaniel as head coach, while acquiring Terron Armstead, Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson, and Connor Williams to help the offense.
Due to the state of their offensive line and their limited playmakers, the Dolphins used a read option on a league-high 14.9% of their dropbacks and used play-action on a league-high 35.9% of passing plays. Miami used 11 personnel on a league-low 26.4% of their snaps while using 12 personnel on a league-high 61.6% of plays.
It was only a preseason sample, but Miami used 11 personnel on 60.0% of the snaps with 12 personnel on 40.0%.
With the additions on offense to go along with second-year wideout Jaylen Waddle, McDaniel’s system paired with talent should markedly improve on the yards after the catch generated by this offense. Just 47.6% of the passing yards generated by Miami in 2021 were after the catch, which ranked 26th in the league.
Tua still needs to show us that he is ready to take a step forward to be treated as more than a QB2 despite all of the positive additions. Through 21 starts, Tagovailoa has four QB1 scoring weeks with two inside of the top-10.
Tagovailoa has made three career starts versus New England, finishing as the QB15, QB22, and QB22 those weeks.
New England was second in passing points allowed per game (10.3) in 2021, but they have made significant changes on that side of the ball, losing J.C. Jackson, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy.
