|41.2%||15||Opp. Rush %||42.0%||20|
|58.8%||18||Opp. Pass %||58.0%||13|
- In games against teams with a winning record, Dallas is 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread.
- Jared Goff leads all qualifying passers in red zone quarterback rating (108.7) while ranking 33rd in rating from outside of the red zone (77.5).
- Opposing teams average 10.7 red zone plays per game versus Dallas, the most in the league.
- The Rams have scored three touchdowns from outside of the red zone, ahead of only the Dolphins (two) on the season.
- The Rams have allowed just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone this season, fewest in the league.
- The Cowboys have scored 12 touchdowns from outside of the red zone, third in the league behind Kansas City (18) and San Francisco (17).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott hasn’t reached 100 yards rushing in a game since Week 9, but still has reeled off four straight top-10 scoring weeks and has been a top-10 scorer in six of his past eight games while averaging 116.3 yards from scrimmage over that span. The Rams have allowed just two RB1 scoring games over their past eight games and held Elliott in check to end Dallas’s season a year ago (22 touches for 66 yards), but Elliott still found the end zone in that game.
- Robert Woods: Woods has been the Rams’ leading receiver in each of his past four games played. In those games, Woods has received 30.2% of the team targets with lines of 7-95, 6-97, 13-172, and 7-98-1. Just two receivers have reached 50 yards in a game versus the Cowboys over their past seven games, but they’ve started to give up a ton of production from the slot, where Woods runs 40% of his routes. Over their past four games, Dallas has allowed lines of 8-150-1, 5-63-0, 9-131-1, and 7-83-3 to wide receivers from the slot.
- Cooper Kupp: Those slot numbers are important for Kupp, who runs 73% of his routes from the slot. But since Woods has ascended, Kupp has descended. Over his past four games played with Woods, Kupp has 15.6% of the team targets, catching 16-of-24 targets for 145 yards with a high of 65 yards receiving. The good news is he’s still found the end zone twice, but last week Kupp played just 20 total snaps (29%) after playing at least 44 snaps in every game this season.
- Todd Gurley: Gurley’s usage has ramped way up of late, having games with 27, 20, and 28 touches over his past four games after averaging 14.9 touches per game through is opening eight games of the season. He’s also added at least three catches in three of his past four games after reaching three catches in just three of his opening eight games. Volume is what we’ve needed all along since his efficiency is still neutral. Gurley has a touchdown in six of his past nine games to give him scoring upside to go along with increased volume.
- Amari Cooper: Cooper has another tough assignment this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed just 100-yard receiver on the season and has allowed just two WR1 scoring weeks over their past eight games. We know Cooper has the elite home splits in his favor (126.3 yards per game at home) and in a similarly tough individual draw against Buffalo at home two weeks ago, he caught 8-of-11 targets for 85 yards. Cooper has faced off with Jalen Ramsey just once in his career as a rookie, catching four passes for 29 yards.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Dak Prescott: This is almost an identical spot to where Prescott has been the past three weeks. Over the past three games, Prescott has faced three top-10 pass defenses in expected points added and has been the QB24 (6.9 points), QB10 (22.7), and QB15 (17.5). In the past two games, Prescott has thrown for 353 yards, one touchdown, and 6.2 yards per pass attempt through three quarters while throwing for 336 yards, two touchdowns, and 8.2 Y/A in the fourth quarter of those games playing catchup. The Rams are sixth in EPA added via their pass defense, having allowed just one QB1 scoring week over their past eight games and allowing more than one touchdown pass in one of those eight games.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jared Goff: We target Goff against teams that struggle to rush the passer. In seven games against teams in the top half of the league in pressure rate, Goff has four touchdown passes and eight interceptions, averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game with six games as QB23 or lower. The Cowboys are 10th in the league in pressure rate (25.7%), but have struggled defensively of late, allowing a top-10 scorer in four of their past five games to Mitchell Trubisky (32.1 points), Josh Allen (23.5), Jeff Driskel (27.5), and Kirk Cousins (19.3). 29.8% of the points scored by those passers were scored through rushing, however, something that isn’t part of Goff’s repertoire (14.2 rushing points all season). If both meet in the middle, Goff could still find a floor, but he’s more of a higher QB2 option.
- Tyler Higbee: Higbee has had two of the best matchups for tight ends over the past two weeks, but he’s been a legit focal point of the passing game in those games, having games of 7-107-1 and 7-116-0 on eight and 11 targets. With Gerald Everett out, Higbee has played 91% and 97% of the team snaps. Dallas isn’t as soft of a matchup as Arizona and Seattle, but they aren’t a team to avoid, either, and have struggled to defend the middle of the field. Dallas is 26th in receptions (5.4) and 20th in yardage (53.2) allowed per game to tight ends. If Everett is out once again, Higbee is a locked-in TE1 option.
- Michael Gallup: Gallup hasn’t found the end zone since Week 10, but he has at least 55 yards receiving in each of his past five games with 20.1% of the team targets over that span. The Rams are the best defense in the league in preventing explosive play in the passing game, allowing 2.4 completions per game of 20 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
More Week 15 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: