Seahawks vs. Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Seahawks and Rams on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Stafford delivered a season-high 9.7 yards per pass attempt on Sunday against the Lions, throwing for 368 yards and 2 touchdowns (with an interception) in the win.

Stafford is now up to 37 passing touchdowns, 8 more than second place.

Paired with being second in passing yardage (3,722 yards), Stafford leads all quarterbacks in passing points (20.5 per game) this season.

He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his past 11 games.

One of the games he did not hit as a fantasy QB1 was the first matchup between these teams in Week 11.

In that game, Stafford was the QB15 (13.2 points), completing 15 of 28 (53.6%) passes for 130 yards (4.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Those were season lows in completion percentage, yardage, and yards per pass attempt.

That is what Seattle has been doing to everyone lately.

Over their past nine games, the Seahawks have allowed a 58.1% completion rate (3rd), a league-low 5.4 yards per pass attempt, and a 2.9% touchdown rate (3rd).

Over that span, the Seahawks are allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt without pressure, nearly 2 yards below the league rate (7.4) during those weeks.

The Rams have their second-lowest implied team total of the season and their lowest since Week 3.

All of that, paired with no Davante Adams and this game being in Seattle, means Stafford is more of a floor-based QB2.

The use of 13 personnel has been a significant talking point for the Rams this season, and over the past two weeks, they have returned to using those sets heavily.

After a 59.7% rate of 13 personnel in Week 14, the Rams were at 62.3% last week against the Lions.

They were at a 97.3% rate of 13 personnel on the 37 snaps that Adams was not on the field.

That could be a signal for what to expect here, but Seattle was able to force them out of that in the first matchup.

On Sunday, Detroit matched those 13 personnel snaps with base or heavy defense on every snap.

Seattle did the opposite in Week 11.

When the Rams went to heavy personnel, the Seahawks ignored it and played a bunch of defensive backs.

Stafford faced six or more defensive backs on 31.6% of his early-down dropbacks in that game, his highest rate of the season.

His season-long rate is 5.9%.

When the Rams went to their 13 personnel, Seattle played nickel 50% of the time.

Teams previously had used five defensive backs against those sets 3% of the time against the Rams.

Seattle did have some issues slowing down the run early out of subpackages, but they corrected that as the game went on and forced the Rams back to more 11 personnel.

The Rams used 13 personnel on 45.8% of their plays in the first half (54.2% on 11 personnel), but then dropped to 26.9% in the second half (73.1% using 11 personnel).

Seattle only allowed 3.8 yards per play in the first half on the 13 personnel plays.

The question will be whether we see new wrinkles for each in the rematch and how the Rams deal with the loss of Adams in this game.

Sam Darnold: We have seen a lot of volatility from Darnold over the back half of the season.

Since Week 7, Darnold has been the QB24, QB6, QB26, QB30, QB8, QB30, QB5, and QB24.

We have been strong at diagnosing the spots to push Darnold as a starter in 1QB leagues and when to handle him as a QB2. This is one of those latter spots.

Darnold was the QB30 (4.3 points) when these teams played in Week 11.

He threw for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, failing to throw a touchdown.

He also threw 4 interceptions.

The Rams had a good game plan in a mirror match of offensive philosophies.

They took the play-action game away from Darnold.

Darnold was 9 of 10 for 74 yards using play action.

His one incompletion using play action was an interception.

Without play action, Darnold was 20 of 34 (58.8%) for 205 yards (6.0 Y/A) with 3 interceptions.

If Seattle can stay in a position to play more balanced and stick to a script that uses play action, the Rams have been softer against those passing plays.

Against play action, the Rams have allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt (15th) and a 72.9% completion percentage (30th) compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt (9th) and a 61.2% completion percentage (9th) on non-play-action dropbacks.

This has been a talking point for analysts like Greg Olsen this season, saying teams should not counter Seattle’s heavy offensive personnel with base defense.

The Rams did just that in the same capacity that we just covered with Stafford.

The Rams played six defensive backs on 29% of Darnold’s early-down snaps, the highest rate of any team this season.

His previous high was 9.5%.

When Seattle used 12 personnel on early downs, the Rams did not try to match with base defense.

They used nickel on 85.7% of Seattle’s early-down dropbacks out of 12 personnel, the highest rate Seattle has seen.

For the season, Seattle has only seen nickel defense on 28% of their passing snaps out of 12 personnel.

Running Back

Rams RBs: The backfield continued to see both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum share work.

Williams played 39 snaps (54.2%), and Corum played 33 snaps (45.8%).

The two lowest snap rates this season for Williams have come over the past two weeks.

Williams still turned 16 touches into 88 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Corum turned 11 touches into 71 yards and a touchdown.

Corum has been a top-20 scorer in three straight games, finding the end zone four times after just once before Week 12.

Williams is a touchdown-based RB2 and Corum a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX here.

Williams had only 13 touches when these teams met in Week 11, but he turned them into 96 yards and a touchdown.

He took advantage of Seattle's approach early in the game, playing nickel-and-dime against the Rams' heavy sets.

Williams rushed 6 times for 76 yards and a touchdown (catching 1 pass for 5 yards) in the first quarter.

He had his two longest runs of the season, busting loose for gains of 34 and 30 yards.

After that opening quarter, Williams only managed 15 yards on 6 touches.

Corum had 9 touches for 5 yards in that game.

If Seattle is going to play light against those heavy fronts, that could create space for this running game to find room.

Without Adams, the Rams could push action to their running game and those sets.

But this also has a wide range of outcomes based on the success of the Seattle defense in the second half of that game and throughout the season.

The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per carry to running backs.

They are allowing the fewest rushing points in the league (8.9 per game) and are fifth in points per touch (0.75) to backfields.

Seahawks RBs: After a few weeks of Kenneth Walker gaining an edge in this backfield, things have been back to more of a split, with the run game sputtering.

On Sunday against the Colts, Zach Caharbonnet played 32 snaps (54.2%), handling 8 touches for 31 yards.

Walker played 25 snaps (42.4%), handling 10 touches for 19 yards.

Walker has now rushed 19 times for 46 yards (2.4 YPC) over the past two games, opening the door back up for Charbonnet.

That pushes Walker back to volatile RB3/FLEX status and Charbonnet to a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX.

If chasing Walker getting back on track here, he had 19 touches for 111 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 11.

He rushed 16 times for 67 yards (4.2YPC) with a score, catching 3 passes for 44 yards.

Charbonnet had 13 touches for 47 yards.

Because the Rams played a similar game to Seattle, Walker faced a light box on 25% of his runs, his second-highest rate of the season.

He faced eight or more defenders in the box on 37.5% of his runs, well below his 49.7% rate on the season.

The Rams have been equally as impressive against running backs as the Seahawks have.

The Rams are allowing 3.8 YPC to running backs (3rd) and the fewest fantasy points per touch (0.70) to backfields.

Wide Receiver

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