Ravens vs Browns Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 15

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 15 Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Saturday afternoon game.

Baltimore	Rank	@	Cleveland	Rank
3		Spread	-3
17.25		Implied Total	20.25
23.2	12	Points/Gm	23.1	13
19.2	8	Points All./Gm	24.8	27
62.7	19	Plays/Gm	67.2	5
60.1	4	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.8	8
5.5	14	Off. Yards/Play	5.5	16
5.5	17	Def. Yards/Play	5.7	20
50.18%	4	Rush%	47.25%	9
49.82%	29	Pass%	52.75%	24
35.72%	2	Opp. Rush %	43.87%	23
64.28%	31	Opp. Pass %	56.13%	10

The Ravens have 27 completions of 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Giants (21).
Over their past seven games, the Ravens have allowed a touchdown on 14.1% of possessions, second in the NFL.
Baltimore is averaging 81.0 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, the most in the league.
Since these teams last played in Week 7, Baltimore has allowed a league-low 319 rushing yards (53.2 per game) and 2.77 yards per carry.
The Browns are 29th in the league in expected points added via running back carries the past two weeks (-11.8) after ranking second prior (9.7).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson: Watson took some steps forward in his second start since coming back to action, but still could not crack being a QB1 on a week with six byes. Watson closed as the QB14 (16.3 points), completing 26-of-42 passes for 276 yards (6.6 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

What has hurt Watson the most since coming back is in high-leverage spots. Watson is 2-of-8 passing for 2.1 Y/A in the red zone while going 6-of-18 for 3.3 Y/A on third downs. He does have four rushing first downs on third down to boost things a touch, but those are the primary problem areas as he gets acclimated to his new offense.

Watson draws another tough matchup here to prevent him from being more than a 2QB option we are still hopeful can channel past career upside. The Ravens have allowed just one QB1 scoring week since Week 5 with multiple passing touchdowns in just two of those weeks. If looking for a silver lining here based on the matchup, the Ravens have allowed over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in each of the past three weeks to Trevor Lawrence (8.7 Y/A), Russell Wilson (8.6 Y/A), and Mitchell Trubisky (9.2 Y/A).

Tyler Huntley: Huntley was forced from last week’s game after 62% of the snaps due to a concussion, but he has already cleared protocol and does not carry an injury designation heading into Saturday.

Huntley still has not closed just one week higher than QB17 in his career as a starter, which leaves him as a 2QB option and Saturday-only DFS play. That said, he does come with rushing equity. Once again this past week, he had nine carries for 31 yards on just under two-thirds of the snaps. If you can run into a rushing touchdown along with his yardage, there is an angle to see how Huntley can get there in those formats, but this is not a tremendous spot to bank on upside.

Cleveland has allowed just three QB1 scoring weeks on the season, holding Jackson to a QB20 scoring week (10.7 points) when these teams played in Week 7.

Running Back

Nick Chubb: After running as pure as possible to open the season, Chubb has run into some uneven production here since the Week 9 bye. Since returning from bye, Chubb is 25th out of 26 backs in success rate (28.0%) and 25th among the same group in rate of runs to go for a first down or touchdown (14.6%). Chubb has rushed 82 times for 312 yards (3.80 YPC) over that span with two touchdowns.

Chubb was excellent just three weeks ago against Tampa Bay (26 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown) as part of that sample, so hopefully this is just a funk that Chubb snaps out of sooner than later. We have seen someone like Derrick Henry do something similar as a back that is dependent on rushing output to carry his fantasy lines.

This is a tough spot to count on rushing efficiency. Since the Ravens acquire Roquan Smith in Week 9, they are allowing a league-low 2.55 YPC to backs with a 76.7% success rate (second) on those carries. Just 11.6% of those carries have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the best rate in the league.

Despite the matchup, we are catching Chubb as a home favorite. As a home favorite over his career, Chubb has averaged 93.9 rushing yards and 18.1 carries per game. The matchup is not flattering, but Chubb is a fringe RB1, with greater appeal in non-PPR formats.

Ravens RBs: J.K. Dobbins returned to the field for the first time since Week 6. Dobbins admittedly said that he was not fully himself quite yet, but the results still got there as he rushed 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins played 26 snaps (57.7%) and handled 46.9% of the backfield snaps, so definitely ran hot on his actual opportunity.

Gus Edwards played 21 snaps, handling 13 carries for 66 yards while both Kenyan Drake (11 snaps) and Justice Hill (two snaps) were non-factors in the rotation.

A Dobbins/Edwards-only split is at least manageable, but the lack of receiving work here as a group paired with the usage split, both of these backs are still touchdown-dependent FLEX plays on a full slate.

The good news is that they do draw a positive matchup.

Cleveland is coming off allowing another 120 yards on the ground on 19 carries to Cincinnati backs on Sunday. The Browns are allowing 5.19 YPC to backs (30th) and 2.06 yards prior to contact per carry (31st) to the position. When these teams met in Week 7, Baltimore backs rushed 33 times for 97 yards, with Edwards scoring two touchdowns.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper: Dealing with a hip injury that had him truly a game-time decision on Sunday, Cooper was able to play and was not limited. He played 86% of the snaps and ran a route on 89.8% of the dropbacks.

The downside is that he caught just 2-of-7 targets for 42 yards. That gives Cooper six catches for 82 yards in the two games that Watson has played.

If looking for an optimistic angle for Cooper as a boom-or-bust WR2, we are getting him back at home this weekend for those narrative lovers. Cooper has been a top-24 scoring wideout in every home game this season. In six games in Cleveland, Cooper has averaged 6.5 catches for 91.2 yards per game. All of those games came with Jacoby Brissett under center, but the target opportunity from Watson has been there the past two weeks.

Cooper caught 3-of-4 targets for 74 yards when these teams played earlier in the season. Baltimore is allowing 8.6 yards per target (26th) to opposing wideouts, but just a 3.6% touchdown rate (fifth).

Donovan Peoples-Jones: After catching 5-of-7 targets for 60 yards the previous two weeks, Peoples-Jones caught 8-of-12 targets for 114 yards on Sunday, his first 100-yard game of the season. DPJ and Cooper have typically been an “either-or” item this season, with just three weeks in which both were top-36 scorers in the same game.

That typically has aligned with Cooper’s wonky home and road splits. At home, Peoples-Jones has 15 catches for 231 yards compared to 38 catches for 520 yards and a touchdown on the road.

The Ravens are 26th in points allowed per game to boundary receivers (22.7) to keep a positive light open to shine on Peoples-Jones as a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX.

Demarcus Robinson: It isn’t sexy, but Robinson has operated as the lead receiver in this offense. He has been a top-40 scoring wideout in four of the past six weeks, but inside of the top-30 in just one of those games as he has not found the end zone since Week 2. With the quarterback position up in the air this week, Robinson is a floor-based FLEX only if Huntley or Jackson are cleared to play.

Tight End

Mark Andrews: When these teams met back in Week 7 it was the dividing point for the season for Andrews. Over his opening six games of the year, Andrews caught 39-of-57 targets for 455 yards and five touchdowns as he was keeping pace with Travis Kelce for the TE1 crown.

Over his past six games, though, Andrews has secured just 19-of-35 targets for 216 yards and zero touchdowns. He has not finished higher than TE7 in any of those weeks, with three weeks as the TE22 or lower. That includes failing to catch a pass when these teams met in Week 7.

Andrews has been pushed to being a boom-or-bust TE1 option now, especially with the potential that Baltimore could be without both Huntley and Jackson on Saturday. The only positive remains that he is the clear lead target still in the offense, receiving 35.3% of the team targets, the team just did not throw this past week.

Cleveland is allowing a 2.5% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends, fifth in the league.

David Njoku (TRUST): Njoku returned from missing Week 13 due to a knee issue to catch 7-of-9 targets for 59 yards and his third touchdown of the season. In his first game played with Watson under center, Njoku collected 23.1% of the team targets, which was fifth among tight ends in Week 14.

Njoku is sixth at the position in yards per route run (1.82) and has been targeted on 21.3% of his routes (10th). His 52.3 yards per game is sixth at the position.

Njoku caught all seven of his targets for 71 yards when these teams met earlier in the season while the Ravens have allowed a 73.1% catch rate (25th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (28th) to tight ends.

More Week 15 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: