The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 8 Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday Night Football game.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 21.75 | ||
| 25.9 | 6 | Points/Gm | 17.7 | 26 |
| 23 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 17.7 | 5 |
| 58.9 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 10 |
| 64.3 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 16 |
| 5.9 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 26 |
| 5.7 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 7 |
| 48.79% | 6 | Rush% | 32.60% | 32 |
| 51.21% | 27 | Pass% | 67.40% | 1 |
| 36.44% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 42.50% | 20 |
| 63.56% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 57.50% | 13 |
- The Buccaneers have scored a touchdown on 13.0% (10-of-77) of their drives, ahead of only the Steelers (11.5%) and Broncos (9.9%).
- Tampa Bay has not scored a touchdown on 16 first quarter possessions.
- Opponents have converted 76.5% (13-of-17) of their red zone possessions for touchdowns against Tampa Bay, the second-highest rate in the league.
- The Ravens have forced a turnover on 18.9% of the opponent possessions, second in the league.
- Baltimore wide receivers have combined for 48 receptions, ahead of only the Bears (42).
- Tampa Bay wide receivers have combined for 117 receptions, the most in the league.
- Tampa Bay running backs are 30th in EPA per rushing attempt (-0.20).
- Tampa Bay has had 24 carries needing one yard to gain. They have converted a league-low 50%. League average is 70.5%.
- The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing yardage gained on carries of 10 or more yards (669). The Buccaneers have 451 rushing yards total on the season, 31st.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Regression has found Jackson swiftly this season. After scorching the fantasy landscape Weeks 1-3 with weeks as the QB8 (20.2 points), QB1 (42.6), and QB1 (39.4), Jackson has closed out the past four weeks as the QB21 (13.1 points), QB15 (14.8), QB13 (16.1) and QB19 (10.7).
Jackson was never going to sustain the 11.4% touchdown rate he had over the opening three weeks and that has come down to his career rate after a 2.8% rate the past four weeks. We should see his 2022 season meet somewhere in the middle when the dust settles on the season.
A big element still in play is that teams are still sending whatever they can at Jackson. Jackson has been blitzed on 43.1% of his dropbacks the past four weeks (third highest rate) after a 35.4% rate the first three weeks (fourth). After completing 25-of-30 passes (83.3%) for 12.0 Y/A with six touchdowns and zero interceptions against extra pass rushers those first three games, Jackon has completed 25-of-52 passes (48.1%) for 269 yards (5.2 Y/A) with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jackson went from first in the NFL in EPA dropback against the blitz Weeks 1-3 (0.97) down to 20th the past four weeks (-0.23).
Jackson has never faced a Todd Bowles-led defense, but the Bucs are a good bet to stay aggressive in their attack here. Tampa Bay has blitzed on 33.6% of passing plays (seventh) and pressured the opposing passer on 42.4% of those blitzes (12th). If looking for alleviation, when the Bucs rush four or fewer pass rushers, they are just 22nd in pressure rate (25.0%).
Tampa Bay just struggled to slow down P.J. Walker last week (15.1 passing points), so there is still a path for Jackson to rebound here. The Bucs have also allowed 34 and 61 yards rushing to Patrick Mahomes and Marcus Mariota in games this season while Jackson is still averaging 72.9 rushing yards per game himself despite his recent issues through the air.
The Bucs have still allowed 255 or fewer passing yards in every game and the only passer to throw more than two touchdowns against them was Mahomes, so we still shouldn’t anticipate a full ceiling game as well.
Jackson’s legs always keep his floor in play for QB1 consideration, but he is more a mid-to-back end QB1 play here.
