The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon game.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 23.75 | Implied Total | 19.75 | ||
| 24.8 | 9 | Points/Gm | 21.6 | 19 |
| 19.9 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 20.5 | 14 |
| 61.7 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 15 |
| 61.5 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 20 |
| 5.7 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 11 |
| 5.5 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 20 |
| 49.27% | 6 | Rush% | 42.90% | 14 |
| 50.73% | 27 | Pass% | 57.10% | 19 |
| 34.31% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 41.55% | 12 |
| 65.69% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 58.45% | 21 |
- The Ravens have trailed for 15.1% of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Jaguars are the only team with a losing record to have a positive point differential (+11) on the season.
- The Jaguars are fifth in the league in success rate per play offensively (46.1%).
- The Ravens have a first down or touchdown on 32.9% of their rushing plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Baltimore has a first down or touchdown on 30.4% of their passing plays, 19th in the league. That rate is at 28.8% since Week 4, 24th in the league.
- 58.3% of the Baltimore rushing yardage has come on gains of 10 or more yards, second in the league.
- 54.1% of the Jacksonville rushing yardage has come on gains of 10 or more yards, third in the league.
- Baltimore is third in the NFL in yardage allowed on gains of 10 or more yards (31.9 per game) while Jacksonville is 16th (51.3).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Closing last week as the QB16 (15.5 points), Jackson has now finished as the QB9-QB21 over his past seven starts. This is more the area where I had treated Jackson during the offseason, when I was concerned about the surrounding talent and schedule providing Jackson with spike weeks.
The lack of surrounding ceiling players are him is an issue. Outside of Mark Andrews, the Ravens just have limited offensive playmakers.
Since Week 4, Jackson is averaging just 6.08 yards per pass attempt, which is right below Baker Mayfield and right above Kenny Pickett. He has thrown just six touchdown passes over that span, with one or fewer touchdowns through the air in six of those seven games.
While this is more in line with where I expected him to be, he still has shown a high floor through rushing production. Jackson has still scored 15 or more fantasy points in each of the past three games and in four of his past five games. He also still has two top-10 scoring weeks over that span. You are not getting ceiling performances, but you also are rarely bottoming out.
That is what makes Jackson such a difficult player to stream for and keeps him in the back end of the QB1 area. We know he still has the potential for a high ceiling and his floor is a lot higher than the passing-reliant options that live in that space in weekly ranks. Jackson is still averaging 8.5 rushing points per game.
Jacksonville has been giving up those ceiling weeks of late to hold onto an upside outcome and makes Jackson an intriguing tournament play this week in DFS. The Jaguars have allowed four top-10 scoring weeks over their past five games with three of those weeks allowing the QB2 in overall scoring or higher. That also includes games to Matt Ryan (27.2 points) and Daniel Jones (28.8 points).
