The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets Sunday afternoon game.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | Spread | 7 | ||
| 25.75 | Implied Total | 18.75 | ||
| 22.8 | 17 | Points/Gm | 18.2 | 28 |
| 23.1 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 29.6 | 32 |
| 69.7 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 26 |
| 60.8 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.4 | 30 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 29 |
| 43.63% | 11 | Rush% | 36.68% | 30 |
| 56.37% | 22 | Pass% | 63.32% | 3 |
| 36.59% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 45.85% | 25 |
| 63.41% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 54.15% | 8 |
- The Ravens were sixth in expected touchdown output (49.2 expected touchdowns) in 2021 based on offensive yardage gained yet ranked 19th in actual touchdowns scored (39).
- With Lamar Jackson off the field, the Ravens scored a touchdown on just 17.1% of their drives (which would have ranked 28th in the league over the full season) and averaged 191.7 yards per touchdown, which would have ranked 30th.
- Opponents scored on a league-high 52.5% of their drives against the Jets in 2021.
- The Jets allowed a touchdown on 32.2% of opponent possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 23.2% of the yardage gained against the Ravens came via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Jets averaged 4.55 yards per play with Zach Wilson on the field last season (741 plays), which would have been last in the league over a full season.
- With Wilson off the field (327 snaps), the Jets averaged 6.07 yards per play, which would have ranked second in the NFL over a full season.
- The Ravens were the only offense in the NFL last season to not have an offensive play that gained 50 or more yards. Every other team had at least two.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Not much went right for Jackson in 2021 down to his own play, missing just about six full games due to injury, and the Ravens as a team just not being able to stay healthy as a whole.
Jackson had his touchdown rate sag down to 4.2% in 2021 after 6.9% and 9.0% rates the previous two seasons while he averaged .401 passing points per attempt (19th) after ranking 10th (.522) and second (.641) his first two years as a starter.
Jackson was also sacked on a career-high 9.0% of his dropbacks playing behind a skeleton crew on the offensive line on top of things. It still appears that left tackle Ronnie Stanley will be held out to open the season, but Baltimore has added a pair of veteran tackles in Ja’Wuan James and Morgan Moses to improve their depth that was exploited a year ago.
Despite all of that pulling against him, Jackson still finished as the QB9 in points per game on the strength of 7.4 rushing points per game, second in the league.
Where Jackson found the most issues in 2021 was against the blitz. When opposing teams sent extra defenders Jackson threw for just 6.5 yards per pass attempt (24th). When Jackson was not blitzed, he averaged 8.1 Y/A (second). The Jets blitzed on 27.8% of their defensive snaps in 2021, the ninth highest rate in the league.
Despite the heavy blitz rate, the Jets were a strong target for us in fantasy, allowing 16.5 passing points per game (30th), 0.48 points per pass attempt (28th), and 7.9 yards per pass attempt (29th).
Jackson’s limitations versus the blitz a year ago throw just a shade of doubt in here, but as a huge favorite against a New York pass defense that was bottom rung in 2021, there is plenty of upside still here as a QB1.
