The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Packers and Ravens.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 23.9 | 14 | Points/Gm | 24.3 | 12 |
| 23.2 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 20.2 | 9 |
| 56.8 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 20 |
| 64.8 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 15 |
| 5.7 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 9 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 6 |
| 50.12% | 2 | Rush% | 48.03% | 6 |
| 49.88% | 31 | Pass% | 51.97% | 27 |
| 40.43% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 42.47% | 14 |
| 59.57% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 57.53% | 19 |
- The Ravens have allowed 1.72 points per drive on the road, 3rd in the league.
- Green Bay has allowed 1.59 points per drive at home, 5th in the league.
- The Ravens have converted 45.3% (24 of 53) of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 30th in the league.
- Green Bay has lost 1.0 EPA or worse on 12.9% of their dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
- Baltimore has lost 1.0 EPA or worse on a league-high 21.7% of their dropbacks.
- The Packers lead the league in third-down conversion rate (50.3%).
- Baltimore has a league-high 20 runs of 20-plus yards.
- Green Bay has allowed a run of 20 or more yards on 0.9% of backfield runs, 2nd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Just when it appeared we were establishing some footing with Jackson, he suffered another setback.
Jackson opened Sunday night by going 7 of 10 for 101 yards (10.1 Y/A).
But he was forced from last week’s game at the end of the first half with a back injury, taking a hit to the lower back.
He did not return to the game, turning things over to Tyler Huntley.
Huntley completed 9 of 10 passes in the second half for 65 yards.
We will follow Jackson’s status throughout the week to see if he can suit up for Saturday.
Baltimore’s playoff chances are on their last lifeline, and they need a Cleveland win against Pittsburgh on Sunday to even have a shot at Week 18 mattering.
The positive news on that front, if hoping Jackson plays, is that this game is on Saturday, ahead of the Steelers-Browns game.
The Ravens will not know their fate heading into kickoff.
Jackson has played well in his past three appearances, but he still takes a step of faith, given how this season has played out from a fantasy standpoint.
Jackson has had one QB1 scoring week since Week 9.
That makes him a boom-or-bust fantasy option on the QB1/QB2 line, assuming he is good to go.
This game has a pedestrian total, and the Green Bay defense has been solid overall and plays better at home.
The Packers have allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt (4th).
In Green Bay, they have allowed a league-low 5.3 Y/A with a 3.5% touchdown rate (7th).
In their first game without Micah Parsons, the Packers still managed a 47.4% pressure rate (3rd highest in Week 16) before a late-game collapse in Chicago.
Jackson has handled pressure well when we have seen him this season.
When pressured, he has averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which is third in the league behind Dak Prescott (8.5 Y/A) and Drake Maye (7.9 Y/A).
Green Bay QB: Jordan Love was forced from last week’s game with a concussion and will open the week in protocol.
We have not seen a quarterback clear protocol in just one week this season, but we will follow his status throughout the week.
Green Bay played on Saturday last week, but with another Saturday game this week, Love does not get an extra day to enhance his chances.
Malik Willis suffered a shoulder injury at the end of Saturday’s game, but he was able to play in overtime.
The Packers did not add a quarterback to open the week, suggesting they are optimistic that either Love or Willis will be ready to play on Saturday.
If not, we will see Clayton Tune pressed into action.
Willis was 9 of 11 for 121 yards (11.0 Y/A) and a touchdown after taking over for Love against the Bears.
Willis has been efficient whenever we have seen him suit up in place of Love over the past two seasons.
Last year in relief of Love, Willis was 40 of 54 (74.1%) for 550 yards (10.2 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
In his two starts last year, Willis was the QB17 (13 points) and QB6 (25.4 points).
Outside of his passing stats, he rushed 53 yards and 37 yards with a touchdown in those two starts.
If Willis gets the nod, he is in play as a floor-based QB2 with upside as a rusher.
Baltimore has allowed a QB1 scorer in three of their past four games.
If Willis does start, we have seen Green Bay lean into his skill set.
In the second half on Saturday, the Packers only had a 40% dropback rate (30th in Week 16).
In the two starts that Willis made a year ago, Green Bay had a league-low 33.3% dropback rate.
They threw the ball 29% and 12% below expectations in his two starts last year, with rates of 27% and 19% below pass expectations on first downs in those games.
Running Back
Derrick Henry: Henry was efficient on Sunday night, rushing 18 times for 128 yards (7.1 YPC) with 2 touchdowns.
He did lose his third fumble of the season as a blemish.
John Harbaugh took flak again for underutilizing Henry in the closing minutes of the game.
Henry did not touch the ball on the final two possessions.
We have talked about this for a week, but Henry has shared more work to close the season as Baltimore has incorporated Keaton Mitchell into the offense.
Over the past three weeks in which Mitchell has played in full, Henry has handled 57.9%, 52.4%, and 62.1% of the backfield touches.
Before that, Henry was averaging 73.8% of the backfield touches per game.
That has made Henry more touchdown- and efficiency-dependent as an RB2, since he is still a limited pass catcher.
If we do see Huntley start, that would open a larger workload opportunity for Henry here.
In Huntley’s lone start this season, Baltimore threw the ball 9% below expectations.
Green Bay is a tougher matchup than a week ago against a depleted New England run defense.
The Packers have allowed two RB1 scorers all season.
They have allowed 3.9 yards per carry to running backs (8th), with a run of 10 or more yards on 6.2% of running back runs (2nd).
Green Bay RBs: Josh Jacobs did not practice last week due to his ongoing knee injury, but he ended up suiting up and was active against the Bears.
He ended up handling only 14 touches for 48 yards, losing a fumble.
Matt LaFleur suggested that Jacobs was not injured and was benched after his fumble.
Emanuel Wilson also had the hotter hand on Saturday, turning his 14 touches into 82 yards.
While LaFleur’s comments suggested Jacobs did not have an actual setback, the question remains how close Jacobs is to 100% at this point.
We will need to see him log practice time heading into Saturday before pushing him aggressively.
Should Jacobs practice this week, he is a volatile RB2.
If Jacobs ends up sitting out a week, then Wilson climbs up the board as a volume-based RB2.
When Jacobs missed Week 12, Wilson handled 30 touches for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Baltimore has been vulnerable to backs in the passing game than as rushers.
They are allowing 4.2 YPC to running backs (14th) and have not allowed more than 78 yards to a rusher in a game since Week 3.
But they are 29th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (10.5).
Wide Receiver
More Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Christmas Day |
| Lions @ Vikings | Christmas Day |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Christmas Day |
| Texans @ Chargers | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Packers | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Rams @ Falcons | Monday Night Football |













