The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon game.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 24 | Implied Total | 18.5 | ||
| 21.4 | 19 | Points/Gm | 18.4 | 26 |
| 19.7 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 27 | 29 |
| 61.8 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 59.2 | 31 |
| 62.6 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 27 |
| 4.9 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 5.1 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 48.53% | 3 | Rush% | 39.07% | 25 |
| 51.47% | 30 | Pass% | 60.93% | 8 |
| 40.04% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 46.59% | 29 |
| 59.96% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 53.41% | 4 |
- The Saints have won four straight games (covering all four) in Atlanta, matching their longest road winning streak versus the Falcons in the history of the rivalry.
- Atlanta scored just twice all of 2021 from outside of the red zone, the fewest times for a team in a season since the 2013 Ravens.
- The Saints allowed a touchdown on just 16.8% of opponent possessions in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Saints ranked second in the NFL in expected points added via their rushing defense (35.2).
- Atlanta ranked 29th in the league in expected points added via the ground (-38.9 EPA), 30th in yards per carry (3.7 YPC), and 27th in rushing scores (11).
- The Falcons ran the ball on 55.2% of their first down play calls (fourth in the league) despite ranking 28th in yards per carry (3.7 YPC) on those calls.
- Atlanta sacked opposing passers on just 3.0% of dropbacks in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: Winston was doing everything asked of him prior to tearing his ACL in Week 8. The Saints had a 5-2 record while he was averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Winston was actually the top quarterback in fantasy points per attempt (.601) while second in the NFL in EPA per play on his abbreviated sample.
Winston also was living off a completely unsustainable 8.7% touchdown rate. 52.4% of Winston’s red zone passes (11-of-21) went for touchdowns, just a silly number that was sure to naturally come down over a larger sample. More impressively is that just four of those 11 touchdowns came from inside of the 10-yard line.
Winston will have little to no chance of replicating that level of touchdown efficiency, but the silver lining is that his receiving corps is massively improved heading into 2022.
Winston’s most targeted player last season was Alvin Kamara (34 targets), followed by Marquez Callaway (29) and then Deonte Harris (16). With Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry on the field with Kamara, there is significantly more talent here.
Winston draws a potentially cushy opening to the season here against an Atlanta defense that surrendered a 67.8% completion rate (28th), 5.4% touchdown rate (29th), and 15.8 passing points per game (26th) to opposing passers in 2021.
I doubt we see Winston run as much early in the season coming off his ACL injury and a preseason ankle issue, but the setup is solid for Winston as one of the top streamers and QB2 options in Week 1.
