Seahawks vs Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.

Seattle	Rank	@	Buffalo	Rank
-2.5		Spread	2.5
28.25		Implied Total	25.75
34.3	1	Points/Gm	24.8	19
28.4	24	Points All./Gm	24.9	14
64.4	16	Plays/Gm	63.1	21
75	32	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.4	12
39.0%	24	Rush%	41.6%	18
61.0%	9	Pass%	58.4%	15
35.2%	1	Opp. Rush %	45.0%	25
64.8%	32	Opp. Pass %	55.0%	8

Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, Seattle has a league-best 24-9 (22-9-2 ATS) record playing in the Eastern Time Zone, including 10 straight wins (8-1-1 ATS).
The Seahawks are the only team in the league that is averaging 4.0 offensive touchdowns per game both on the road and at home.
The Bills are averaging 4.8 red zone opportunities per game at home (the most in the league) as opposed to 3.2 per game on the road (21st).
Seattle has converted a league-high 88.0% of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns. League rate is 61.8%.
The Bills are allowing opposing passers to complete a league-high 56.7% of passes over 15 yards downfield.
Russell Wilson leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points on those downfield passes (60.4) while D.K. Metcalf leads all wide receivers (62.0).
Seattle wideouts lead the league in catchable target rate (80.8%) while the Bills are second (79.4%).
Both Wilson and Josh Allen are tied for the league lead with eight touchdown passes using play action.
77.8% of the yardage against Seattle has come via passing, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Russell Wilson: Wilson has one week this season scoring below the QB7 and in that game, he still scored 20.9 fantasy points. Wilson not only has multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, but he has three or more in six of his seven games and four games with at least four passing scores. Adding to his scoring output, Wilson is also averaging 37.1 rushing yards per game, his highest total since 2014.

The Bills are mid-pack against the pass, ranking 14th in passing points allowed per game (15.2), 16th in yards per pass attempt (7.3 Y/A) and 23rd in completion rate (67.8%) allowed. Wilson will inevitably see his 10.2% touchdown rate recoil, but is a clear set-and-forget QB1 weekly until he is slowed down.

Josh Allen (TRUST): After four top-five scoring weeks to open the season, Allen has been the QB15 or lower in each of his past four games. After throwing two or more touchdown passes in each of the first six games, Allen has failed to throw a touchdown pass the past two weeks. The good news is that Seattle is coming to town. The Seahawks face a league-high 46.9 pass attempts per game to pack our passers with inherent volume, but they are not just a volume-based matchup, they also allow hyper-efficiency with that volume.

Seattle ranks 25th in yards per pass attempt (7.8 Y/A) and 25th in completion rate (67.9%) to passers. The one area where the volume does show up in helping the cause is Seattle is eight in touchdown rate allowed (3.9%), but still 19th in touchdown passes allowed per game (1.9).

Running Back

Bills RBs: After Zack Moss pushed Devin Singletary late in Week 7, Moss came back and out-snapped Singletary for the first time this season in Week 8 31-28. Singletary did still lead the backfield with 15 touches for 92 yards while Moss had 14 touches for 81 yards, but Moss commanded the scoring opportunities, reaching paydirt twice. As bad as Seattle has been against the pass, they have been solid against the run, allowing 3.7 YPC to back (seventh). That said, Seattle is the only team to allow a rushing touchdown in every game this season. Moss is a touchdown-dependent FLEX while Singletary is a floor, yardage-based FLEX with limited scoring upside.

Seahawks RBs: Seattle has ruled out both Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) for Sunday. Travis Homer (knee) played seven snaps last week and is good to go again this week. With all of those backs ailing, DeeJay Dallas played 54 snaps (79.4%) and handled 23-of-26 backfield touches, turning them into 58 yards and two touchdowns.

Dallas ran a pass route on 75.6% of the team dropbacks and handled all of the goal line work. Regardless of efficiency, that type of usage carries an RB2 floor (have you met David Montgomery). The Bills are allowing 16.8 rushing points per game (26th) and 4.53 yards per carry (21st) to backfields. Homer could play more snaps than he did a week ago with an extra week under his belt while Alex Collins was brought up from the practice squad. Dallas is a fringe RB2/RB3 option.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs (TRUST): Diggs has double-digit PPR points in every game this season with six or more receptions in every game this season but one. Even with Allen coming back down after a hot start, Diggs has received a gaudy 35% of the team targets over the past four weeks with 42% of the team air yards over that stretch. Over the opening four games, Diggs commanded 24% of the team targets and 34% of the air yards. To be honest, one of the reasons I believe Allen has struggled a bit is the Buffalo passing game has devolved a bit into jamming Diggs with targets on repeat when everyone was involved the first few weeks of the season. But this is the WR1 honey pot. Seattle is 31st in points per game allowed to opposing WR1 options (23.7) and are allowing a league-high 115.1 receiving yards per game to opposing lead wideouts.

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (TRUST): Metcalf’s breakout continued a week ago, turning a career-high 15 targets into a 12-161-2 game. Whereas the Seattle target dispersal was more even over the start of the season, we have started to see heavy oscillation between the target totals of Metcalf and Lockett.

Both Seattle wideouts had at least 20% of the team targets in each of the opening three games of the season and since then, the duo has not had 20% of the team targets together in any of the past four games.

In Week 5, Metcalf accrued 11 targets (34.4%) to Lockett’s five (15.6%), then in Week 7, Lockett had 20 targets (40%) to Metcalf’s five (10%), and last week Metcalf received 15 targets (40.5%) to Lockett’s five (13.5%).

This week, Metcalf is on tap to receive similar treatment to what he saw in Week 7 when Patrick Peterson shadowed him nearly the entire game as Tre’Davious White should be in Metcalf’s space often. White is 12th among all NFL corners in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.69), which is much better than Peterson (1.05). The only lead wideout to reach 100 yards against Buffalo was Jamison Crowder, who runs primarily out of the slot.

Metcalf runs 86% of his routes on the outside and has the ability to beat anyone as evidence of Stephon Gilmore, but if the attention of White is going to shift to Metcalf, Lockett has a chance to see the targets spike in his direction just as they did in that Arizona game. Lockett also runs 58% of his routes out of the slot, which is an advantage here. In the games where teams threw a big corner at Metcalf like New England and Arizona, Lockett posted games of 7-67-1 and 15-200-3. I would knock Metcalf down below Lockett this week.

Cole Beasley: Beasley is second on the Bills in targets (51) with six or more targets in six games this season. He has cleared 60 yards in just three games, but those targets can be of value here against a Seattle defense that has allowed double-digit points to primary slot options in CeeDee Lamb (5-65-0), Larry Fitzgerald (8-62-0), Russell Gage (9-114-0), and Julian Edelman (8-179-0). With the potential volume here for the Buffalo passing game, Beasley is a WR3 option.

John Brown: Brown returned to the lineup last week after missing Week 7. Although he received just two targets, he did run a pass route on 95.5% of the Buffalo dropbacks. Seattle has been an equal opportunity pass defense to opposing wideouts, allowing 17 different wide receivers to post double-digit PPR points against them this season. Brown has just five catches for 63 yards since Week 2, so he requires more of a step of faith than Beasley, but is a boom-or-bust WR3 worth playing for the upside potential this week.

Tight End

Seattle TEs: Over the past three games, Greg Olsen has seen his route rate per dropback go from 75.6% to 63.2% to 53.7% while Will Dissly has run a pass route on 39.5% of the team dropbacks over that span after just 24.5% prior. A Seattle tight end has eclipsed 38 yards just once on the season and only options chasing a touchdown with attachment to Wilson, but Dissly appears to be closing the gap on Olsen.

More Week 9 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: