Week 13 comes at fantasy gamers quickly, with three games on Thursday and one on Friday.
Fortunately, there are no byes this week, which provides managers with a myriad of options at most positions.
Enjoy the Turkey and football as the fantasy week starts early Thursday.
With a quarter of the games occurring before Sunday, it is important to make a note of each specific matchup, as floor vs. ceiling needs are dependent on what occurred earlier in the week.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Starts:
| Week 13 Starts | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | Texans |
| Bucky Irving | RB | Bucs |
| Rome Odunze | WR | Bears |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | Packers |
Week 13 Fantasy Football Sits:
| Week 13 Sits | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB | 49ers |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | Bears |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Ravens |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | Bills |
Quarterback Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start C.J. Stroud in Week 13
Stroud has not finished as a top-six scorer in any week season but has the fortune of playing the Jaguars, which makes him a starting option in Week 13.
The last time the Jaguars played, they surrendered 7 touchdowns, 645 yards, and 52 points to the Lions offense.
More importantly than playing a soft defense, Stroud has the receiving services of Nico Collins, who looks to be at full strength following his IR stint.
With Collins on the field, Stroud has an EPA/dropback of 0.13, 68.2% completion rate, and is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt as opposed to -0.13 EPA/dropback, 59% completion rate, and 6.5 yards per attempt.
This matchup provides Stroud an opportunity to improve and gain some confidence down the stretch as the Texans are likely going to win the division.
It’s been a rough season for Stroud fantasy managers, but a ceiling outcome is in play this week.
Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson
Wilson continues his redemption tour in Cincinnati in Week 13, who are allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
The Bengals are 26th in fantasy passing points allowed but more importantly, Joe Burrow could push the Steelers offense to increase the aggressiveness.
Wilson has attempted more than 30 passes once this season, and there’s no coincidence it coincides with the game against Lamar Jackson even though he struggled.
Should the Bengals have offensive success, the Steelers will have to throw more improving the overall fantasy environment as the Wilson-led offense is passing 9% below expectation.
Sit Brock Purdy in Week 13
Purdy’s Week 13 availability remains up in the air. For all we know he could be in Germany seeking injury consultation, but if he suits up, he is a fantasy sit candidate.
The Bills have only allowed a single quarterback to be a top-12 fantasy scorer this season.
Even at full health, this is a difficult matchup for Purdy, who is also contending with a shoulder injury and a potential snowstorm.
Over his past four starts, Purdy only has 4 passing touchdowns as the offense has struggled with multiple players seemingly playing through injuries as Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey have lacked explosiveness.
Purdy fantasy managers should not be awaiting news on whether or not he will suit up. An alternate option is the best option regardless of Purdy’s status.
Running back Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Bucky Irving in Week 13
Despite Rachaad White opening the game as the starting running back, Irving is the top fantasy option in the Buccaneers' backfield and a must start in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers.
Irving has eclipsed 15 PPR points in five of his last six games, and his role in the offense continues to grow.
Irving is averaging 4.19 yards after contact and has been targeted on 22.7% of his routes.
He is fortunate to face a Panthers run defense that is amongst the worst in the league.
The Panthers have allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Buccaneers are likely to utilize three running backs this week, but Irving’s talent and efficiency will allow him to exceed expectations with a shared backfield.
Honorable Mention: Gus Edwards
Not a sexy option, but Edwards is a start option in the absence of J.K. Dobbins.
The Falcons are among the worst teams in down-to-down success against running back rush attempts with a 59.4% success rate and are trending poorly as the defense has performed under their season average in four consecutive weeks including three games against teams in the bottom half of the league in rush efficiency.
Edwards should have double digit carries, and if he can find the endzone, should be able to provide a usable week in fantasy football.
Sit D'Andre Swift in Week 13
A short week after nursing a groin injury and a matchup against the Lions run defense makes Swift a sit option in Week 13.
Swift was on the injury report last week and is coming off his worst rushing performance since September, averaging 2.3 yards per carry and having the goal line touchdown vultured by Roschon Johnson.
Running backs have only been targeted on 10.9% of passes against the Lions, potentially removing Swift’s fantasy floor.
In the past three games against running back rushes, the Lions defense has success rates of 80.8%, 85.7%, and 90.9% respectively, which does not bode well for the Bears rush attack.
Splitting goal line carries has limited Swift’s ceiling, and his floor is lowered in this matchup, making Swift a sit candidate.
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Wide Receiver Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Rome Odunze in Week 13
Odunze continues to earn targets down the field, is due for positive regression, and provides a high ceiling option in Week 13 against the Lions.
Odunze will likely have ample opportunity for a big fantasy week as he is coming off back to back double digit target games, and the Lions defense has funneled targets to wide receivers this season.
Wide receivers are targeted on 69.1% of passes against the Lions, who are facing a league-high 25.1 wide receiver targets per game.
Odunze is averaging over 14 air yards per target against man coverage.
The volume and types of targets Odunze is earning provide a runway for a spike fantasy week if the targets are accurate.
This is a high variance high reward play, but the peripherals are there for a spike fantasy week.
Honorable Mention: Adonai Mitchell
There is a nonzero chance that Mitchell is the best wide receiver on the Colts roster with Josh Downs out.
Mitchell’s biggest problem this season is usage, but he has produced when he is on the field and is healthier than Micheal Pittman, who is battling injuries.
Mitchell leads all Colts receivers with a 31.9% target rate with Anthony Richarson this season and faces a Patriots defense that is allowing a 70.2% catch rate to outside wide receivers.
With all 32 teams playing this is a deeper play, but there is spike week potential in a good matchup for the rookie.
Sit Rashod Bateman in Week 13
Bateman found the end zone on Monday night, reducing the sting of a 2 reception performance, but I’d recommend leaving the Bateman resurgence on the fantasy bench against the Eagles in Week 13.
Bateman has been efficient this year, but he has been targeted on only 16.3% of his routes and faces a surging Eagles secondary.
Before the Rams game, whose offense flows through their top-two wide receivers, the Eagles had allowed a single touchdown to wide receivers in the prior six games. They did not allow a team more than 11 combined wide receiver receptions in any of those six games.
This is a spot where I’m fine holding Bateman on the bench this week.
Tight End Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Tucker Kraft in Week 13
Kraft has been efficient with minimal targets and could receive a volume bump, making him a start in Week 13.
Kraft has been bailed out by scoring on 20% of his receptions this year as he continues to be a red zone favorite, earning a target on 27.3% of routes in the red zone.
His 12 red zone targets are nearly double the nearest Packer receiver Dontayvion Wicks, who has 7.
Kraft has become an every down player as he leads the Packers in routes, which is favorable as the Dolphins defense faces the highest tight end target rate in the league.
Kraft has become a touchdown dependent fantasy play, but against the Dolphins, he provides a potential floor in addition to the touchdown upside.
With Romeo Doubs absent, he could get a target lift against a Miami defense that has pushed volume to tight ends.
Honorable Mention: Chig Okonkwo
As a “Chiggy” truther, the arrow is pointing up for the Titans tight end. He may have had a single target last week, but he made the most of it scoring a 70-yard touchdown.
This may be a week early, as the Commanders are a run-funnel, but the remainder of the season sets up great for the tight end as the Titans face a soft passing schedule.
Sit Dalton Kincaid in Week 13
Assuming Kincaid returns from his knee injury, which kept him out before the bye, Week 13 is a week in which the Bills tight end may be best left sitting on fantasy benches.
Kincaid has been facing a declining route rate before his injury, and with the Bills on the verge of clinching the division, his usage could be limited down the stretch.
The 49ers are a difficult matchup for opposing tight ends, and Mother Nature could provide a lake effect snow game on Sunday.
The 49ers are limiting opposing tight ends to 34.9 yards per game which includes games against Travis Kelce and Trey McBride.
The Bills preserving Kincaid and the matchup provide some concerns for Kincaid’s fantasy value this week.
