The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Bengals and Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
24.0 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
23.8 | 14 | Points/Gm | 17.2 | 29 |
21.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 30.5 | 30 |
54.6 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 54.8 | 29 |
68.8 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 29 |
5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 30 |
5.2 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 29 |
45.42% | 11 | Rush% | 32.83% | 32 |
54.58% | 22 | Pass% | 67.17% | 1 |
38.95% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 46.50% | 25 |
61.05% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 53.50% | 8 |
- Pittsburgh has allowed 0 points off turnovers this season.
- The Bengals have allowed a league-high 52 points off turnovers.
- Pittsburgh averages a league-high 6.0 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense.
- Pittsburgh is third in the NFL in points per drive in the first half of games (2.96).
- Cincinnati is averaging 0.97 points per drive in the first half of games (31st).
- Cincinnati has a -80 point differential, the worst in the league, and it's the worst through six games since 2002.
- The Bengals have trailed by double digits for a league-high 48.9% of their offensive snaps.
- The Steelers have led for 46.5% of their offensive snaps, sixth in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has been a usable QB2 but has not been a QB1 scorer in a week since the season opener.
He is the QB6 in passing points per attempt (0.542), but only the QB28 in attempts per game (27.6), which makes him less favorable for fantasy purposes.
We are not getting any rushing from Rodgers, which keeps him as a matchup-based QB2 here.
Rodgers should be able to remain efficient per attempt.
The Bengals are 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.496), allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt (28th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (24th).
Cincinnati could be without Trey Hendrickson, who left last week’s game with a hip injury.
Even with Hendrickson, the Bengals are 28th in pressure rate (29.3%).
Without pressure, the Bengals have allowed 8.2 Y/A (28th), 11.4 yards per completion (28th), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (24th).
Joe Flacco: In his first start with the Bengals, Flacco was 29 of 45 (64.4%) for 219 yards (4.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
He did not throw any interceptions while adding a two-point conversion.
The Cincinnati offense was essentially dormant until late in the third quarter, much like the week prior against the Lions.
Flacco only averaged 2.7 yards per pass attempt in the first half against Green Bay and 3.8 Y/A through three quarters.
Flacco was then 15 of 21 (71.4%) for 129 yards (6.1 Y/A) with a touchdown and two-point conversion in the final quarter.
The good news is Flacco did not turn the ball over, and he was sacked on only 2.2% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate for a Cincinnati starter this season.
That was Jake Browning’s undoing, taking a sack on 6.8% of his dropbacks with a 6.5% interception rate.
Flacco has had turnover and sack issues, so Sunday’s reduction of negative plays could be short-lived or impacted by a vanilla approach in his first start against a strong defense.
Flacco averaged only 6.0 air yards per attempt (the second-lowest rate for a Cincinnati starter this season), so the Bengals were aware they needed to get the ball out against the Green Bay pass rush.
The same will be true here.
Pittsburgh is 11th in pressure rate (38.5%) and second in sack rate (9.5%).
They came out of their bye last weekend, the healthiest they have been all season, getting Alex Highsmith, Joey Porter Jr, and Jalen Ramsey back on the field.
After getting Derrick Harmon and DeShon Elliott back in Week 4, this is the most intact this defense has been to start the year.
With their healthiest defense, they had a 43.1% pressure rate and 6 sacks last weekend against the Browns.
Flacco’s insertion into the lineup is more about how functional he can be for the pass catchers we are attached to for fantasy, while he is a volume-based QB2 himself.
We do have a good idea that the Bengals will throw it.
Cincinnati has a 65% dropback rate in neutral game scripts (fourth highest) and threw the ball 3% over expectations in Flacco’s first start with the team.
Running Back
Steelers RBs: Jaylen Warren did not completely regain control of this backfield despite returning to the lineup.
Warren played 51.7% of the snaps, handling 13 touches for 63 yards.
He handled 41.9% of the backfield touches and 47.8% of the backfield runs, his lowest rates in the early season.
On the positive end, he rushed for a season-high 52 yards.
Kenneth Gainwell played 34.5% of the snaps, handling 12 touches for 36 yards.
Half of his touches came in the receiving game, as he matched Warren with 13 routes run (41.9% of the team total).
The Steelers did not have a snap inside the 10-yard line to further hash out roles.
Kaleb Johnson has played 20.8% and 18.6% of the snaps in his past two games, with 6 touches in each game.
We may see a three-person backfield at some point, but the overlap with where we left off before Warren missed Week 4 is that Warren remains the primary runner if any committee moves forward.
That is enough of a role to have Warren in play as an upside RB2/FLEX with Gainwell as a deeper-end dart based on the matchup.
The Bengals are facing a league-high 31.0 backfield touches per game.
On those touches, they are allowing 1.01 points per touch (30th) and 166.0 yards from scrimmage per game (29th).
The Pittsburgh backfield, as a group, has accounted for 63.8% of the team's touches (second in the league) and 28.2 touches per game (eighth).
Chase Brown: If we were looking for any lift for Brown with the transition to Flacco, we did not get it.
Brown handled 11 touches for 49 yards on Sunday.
He played 53.8% of the snaps, his second game in a row below 55%.
Brown handled a season-low 57.9% of the backfield touches.
Brown has not had more than 15 touches in a game since Week 2 and has yet to post more than 71 total yards in a game to this stage.
He has not found the end zone since Week 1, which feels like his only out for salvaging his weekly output as an RB3.
In their first game as a healthy defensive unit on Sunday, the Steelers smothered Quinshon Judkins, allowing only 36 yards on 12 rushes to Judkins with a long run of six yards.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase came through for gamers in his first start with Flacco, catching 10 of 12 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Chase only had 4 catches for 32 yards heading into the fourth quarter, but grabbed 6 of 7 targets for 62 yards and a stellar 19-yard touchdown draped in coverage.
Chase is undoubtedly going to continue to have added volatility attached to Flacco, but he has shown these past two weeks that he still has front-end WR1 scoring output in his range of outcomes since he commands so many targets.
Chase has seen double-digit targets in each of the past two games with 3 touchdowns.
If he is going to approach those target levels, you have to live with what comes attached to the quarterback play week-to-week.
Chase can win against anyone if the quarterback is good enough, even if there are some reservations about the upside here, given the improved health of the Pittsburgh defense.
Even with all the moving parts to open the season, Pittsburgh is 11th in points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.61) and has a 2.9% touchdown rate (5th).
DK Metcalf: Metcalf secured 4 of 9 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Browns.
Metcalf got behind Tyson Campbell for a 25-yard score, his fourth game in a row with a touchdown.
He should have had another long score behind the defense, but he was underthrown.
Metcalf and Rodgers are starting to get things going.
He has seen 22.7% and 31% of the team’s targets over the past two games.
He has 38.1% of the first-read targets per Fantasy Points data in those games, WR6 these past two weeks.
Metcalf has not had more than 5 receptions in a game yet, as he is running 28.4 routes per game in this lower-volume passing offense (WR56).
He is leaning on his touchdown output, but we have seen Rodgers provide his WR1 with scoring opportunities throughout his career.
With Calvin Austin still doubtful for Thursday, Metcalf has a runway to sustain a high target share when Pittsburgh is throwing the ball.
Metcalf is a WR2 for Week 7.
Despite their defensive issues, the Bengals have held up well on the outside.
They have allowed 7.7 yards per target (eighth) and a 4.2% touchdown rate (12th) to outside receivers, where Metcalf has played 82% of his snaps.
Tee Higgins: Higgins caught 5 of 8 targets for 62 yards on Sunday.
While the production was hardly earth-shattering, the receptions and yardage were season highs.
Flacco was at least functional enough on Sunday in a challenging matchup to provide these wide receivers with usable opportunities, which is all we are looking for.
Higgins did not have more than three receptions in any game before Sunday.
This provides some added hope that Flacco can provide some stability for Higgins as a WR3.
That said, Higgins still only had 20% of the team's targets.
He has not seen nearly the same type of volume as a year ago, while Chase has been the priority target.
Higgins has topped the 20% target mark just once this season.
In last year's matchups with Joe Burrow as the quarterback, the Steelers used Joey Porter Jr. as a shadow matchup on Higgins, electing to try to slow down Chase with bracket coverage.
In those outings, Higgins had games of 5-69-1 and 4-53-0.
Steelers WRs: With Calvin Austin out on Sunday, Scotty Miller ran 15 routes (48.4% of the team dropbacks) and Roman Wilson ran 8 (25.8%).
Even in single-game DFS, these are thin fantasy options.
Tight End
Steelers TEs: Pittsburgh plays multiple tight ends as much as anyone, having at least two tight ends on the field for half of their snaps.
They have played 12 personnel on 39.9% of their snaps (fourth) and 13 personnel on 11% (third).
All of Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington, and Pat Freiermuth see regular snaps.
Smith gets the most designed usage, seeing a target on 21.7% of his routes.
He only has 17 catches for 89 yards with 1 score over five games.
He is running a route on 60% of the dropbacks.
We have seen more of Washington lately due to his increased use in the run game.
Washington has been on the field for more snaps and run more routes than Freiermuth in each of the past two games.
Washington has been on the field for 64% and 61.3% of the dropbacks these past two games.
Washington has only had games of 3-20-0 (3 targets) and 3-62-0 (5 targets), but Freiermuth has games of 0-0-0 and 1-11-0 these past two weeks, running a route on 32% and 45.2% of the dropbacks.
Connor Heyward had a touchdown last week, but it was his only pass route in the game.
This is more of a sum of parts than having an individual target, which makes it hard to stream any of these guys.
If you are going to chase Smith or Washington, the matchup is strong.
Tight ends have 26.6% of the receptions against the Bengals this season (8th-highest).
On targets to tight ends, Cincinnati is allowing 7.5 yards per target (20th) and a 9.4% touchdown rate (30th) to the position.
Bengals TEs: This is another sum-of-parts tight end room.
The Bengals lost Mike Gesicki to a pectoral injury on Sunday.
That only led to a slightly increased role for Noah Fant, who ran a route on 51.2% of the dropbacks without Gesicki available.
Fant caught all 4 of his targets for 27 yards without Gesicki on the field.
Instead of Fant getting a push as a full-time player, Tanner Hudson absorbed most of Gesicki’s role, catching 4 of 5 targets for 10 yards and a touchdown.
However, he is now in the concussion protocol, perhaps opening a bigger role for Fant.
Drew Sample ran 10 routes without Gesicki available (23.3%), catching one pass for -2 yards.
All of these options are touchdown-or-bust plays best left for single-game DFS.
Pittsburgh has also had its share of issues with tight ends, allowing 7.8 yards per target (25th) and a 6.5% touchdown rate (19th) to the position.

More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |