NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.
Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.
When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.
The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. 49ers covered in our Super Bowl 58 Hub.
The San Francisco 49ers head to Las Vegas to take on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs as two-point favorites. The total is set at 47.5.
The 49ers defense ranked highly in most statistical categories this season but has fallen back to earth in the playoffs.
Both offenses have viable paths to success, but the Chiefs are far easier to stack. This is especially true given how well Christian McCaffrey fits into their pricing structure.
He will be rostered nearly 70% of the time, so the only way to be overweight will be to either lock him or play him as captain.
Rashee Rice will be the most popular captain, but there are still unique ways to play him.
The rest of the Kansas City options project for reasonable exposure, which bodes well for creating unique stacks.
- George Kittle – Toe – Questionable
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Illness – Questionable
- Jerick McKinnon – Groin – Questionable
- Rashee Rice – Ankle – Questionable
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This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot late in the season:
- Final 11 weeks in NFL: 58-32 (64%)
- Final 2023 Profits: $100 Bettors finished up $8,148
- Final 2023 Elevated Plays Record: 102-64 (61%)
- Final 2023 1+ Unit Plays Record: 27-11 (71%)
- Final 2023 NFL Regular Season: 83-56 (59%)
- Final 2023 NFL Computer Totals: 38-23 (62%)
- Final 2023 NCAAF Bowls: 9-1 (90%)
Historically, we’ve been outstanding in the Super Bowl:
- 26-10 (72%) lifetime Super Bowl Sides/Totals record
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Best DFS Plays for Super Bowl 58: 49ers Offense
Christian McCaffrey $12,000
McCaffrey is once again the first and most important decision point of the slate. His roster percentage is going to fall somewhere in the range of 70%, with roughly 30% of that at captain. On a slate with more viable captains than we’ve seen perhaps all season, it’s finally a week worth fading McCaffrey at that spot. That doesn’t mean he isn’t viable in the flex. In fact, for people building heavily around the Chiefs, they’ll want to consider locking McCaffrey in a flex spot for all of their lineups.
Brandon Aiyuk $8,800
Aiyuk finds himself in an excellent spot to ruin millions of Showdown enthusiasts’ hopes and dreams. The field feels certain that Rashee Rice at $7,600 is a slam dunk. This takes the 49ers’ WR1 at $1,200 more, off the board. Aiyuk may have a tough matchup, but his ceiling alone makes him viable against any corner in the league. He has hit the 100-yard-bonus 7 times this season. If his roster percentage stays under 20%, he becomes the best leverage on the slate.
Brock Purdy $10,000
The decision to play Purdy primarily comes down to what team you’re looking to stack. Either side of the ball is viable, but the Chiefs get the slight nod when considering how easy they are to stack paired with McCaffrey. Even still, there are unique ways to get to Purdy in the flex while still building around the Chiefs. Omitting McCaffrey while stacking Purdy and Aiyuk in the flex is a sure way to start a unique build.
George Kittle $6,400
One of the reasons it is easier to stack Kansas City with one or two of the San Fransisco options is because the 49ers’ receivers are so inconsistent. Any of their big 3 is capable of slate-breaking performances but also has three points in their range of outcomes. Kittle has the benefit of having that massive upside while being the cheapest of the bunch.
Deebo Samuel $9,200
Samuel entered the NFC Championship with a legitimate injury concern that resulted in speculation that he could just be a decoy. He ended up catching 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards to go along with 3 rushing attempts. Samuel is always priced higher than Aiyuk, which results in a roster percentage below 30% consistently. Samuel is worth being well overweight on as there is a reasonable chance the entire game plan revolves around him.
Jauan Jennings $4,000
Jennings is more expensive than both Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson, but he will be similarly involved. He makes sense in large field tournaments when heavily stacking Purdy but can otherwise be omitted. His six catches against the Packers came as a result of Samuel’s injury. He saw just two targets against the Lions.
Elijah Mitchell $2,800
Mitchell returned to action last week and earned four carries on nine percent of the snaps. One of his carries happened to be a touchdown in the most crucial part of the game. His price is finally low enough to consider him a viable punt option, even with McCaffrey. In lineups that exclude McCaffrey entirely, it is worth boosting Mitchell on the chance of injury.
Brandon Aiyuk / Brock Purdy
Aiyuk appears to be unpopular in the flex, so he will be especially underutilized at Captain. One unique build option has been to include Aiyuk, Purdy, Rice, and Patrick Mahomes. This still leaves enough salary to heavily stack the Chiefs while also capitalizing on Aiyuk’s low exposure. Much of the field is viewing Aiyuk and Rice as an either/or operation, so including them together will be contrarian.
Best DFS Plays for Super Bowl 58: Chiefs Offense
Patrick Mahomes $10,600
The price gap between Purdy and Mahomes should’ve been a touch higher to make this decision more difficult. Unfortunately, it appears as though stacking the Chiefs will be the most popular route. There are plenty of unique pairing options for Mahomes that make this approach still viable regardless of its popularity. Mahomes is nearly a lock to land in the optimal lineup, but that doesn’t have to be at captain. This slate shapes up beautifully to allow his skill position players to shine as the captain.
Rashee Rice $7,600
Rice will certainly be the most popular of those skill position players at captain. This is primarily due to DraftKings mispricing him once again. He should’ve been within a couple of hundred dollars of Aiyuk, yet here we are. Rice has had a tough time putting up slate-winning numbers alongside Travis Kelce, so it is worth limiting the exposure to both players in the same lineup. Starting a lineup with Rice, Mahomes, and McCaffrey is certainly the best option but it will also require added attention to differentiate the last three slots.
Travis Kelce $10,200
Kelce has been this price all season regardless of how he’s been producing, and it finally feels appropriate. He hit value last game with the 100-yard-bonus, and two weeks ago he caught multiple touchdowns. Even in the wild card round he was targeted 10 times. This season was uncharacteristic for Kelce, but he’s been as valuable as ever in the playoffs. Thanks to his price, his roster percentage will not reflect prime Kelce, but it should.
Isiah Pacheco $8,000
Pacheco is an extremely important player to consider, especially for those stacking the 49ers. He provides leverage against not only Rice but the entire Chiefs’ passing game. San Fransisco has not been the same against the run in recent weeks, and Pacheco will be given ample opportunity to capitalize on that. There are many scenarios in which this game is handled mostly by Pacheco and the Kansas City defense.
Justin Watson $2,400
Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the two most important players to consider when building multiple Chiefs stacks. Watson appears to be the safer bet but he’s being projected for twice the roster percentage. Neither of them can be completely omitted from Kansas City stacks, but they should not be rostered together.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,000
Valdes-Scantling was the hero of Kansas City in Baltimore after another lackluster season. He played a season-high 83% of the snaps and was targeted twice. Both he and Watson would be lucky to see multiple targets, and they’re both capable of 30-yard catches. In this case, the best approach is likely to simply go against the grain and boost Valdes-Scantling exposure while lowering Watson exposure.
Noah Gray $1,800
Gray is a fan favorite for Showdown enthusiasts. Anytime he is under $3,000, he is in play. While most of the field chases the long-ball archetype of Watson and Valdes-Scantling, it may be Gray’s 3 catches for 30 yards that propel him into the winning lineup.
Rashee Rice / Brandon Aiyuk / Patrick Mahomes / Brock Purdy
Rice is going to be the most popular captain, but that doesn’t mean he should be taken off the board. One way to be unique is to pair him with Aiyuk, who many consider to be the anti-Rice in this game. We can also double down by adding Purdy to the mix. Most optimizers are not going to land on two quarterback lineups, especially not with multiple expensive receivers. This is a great way to keep a lineup both viable and contrarian. Just close your eyes so you do not see the insane amount of talent being left on the bench with this build. If it was the most comfortable option, it wouldn’t be unique.